Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 17

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump.

Now that the 2007 regular season has drawn to a close, we can now take a look at teams expected to improve/decline in 2008 based on these numbers. (after the jump)

Home Team	Away Team	P(Home Team Won) (%)	Final Score Margin
NYG	NE	65.5888	-3
ATL	SEA	90.6024	3
BAL	PIT	58.4996	6
DEN	MIN	72.1244	3
NYJ	KC	87.6325	3
OAK	SD	32.9214	-13
WAS	DAL	98.4930	21
IND	TEN	6.8479	-6
TB	CAR	58.6529	-8
CHI	NO	58.7931	8
MIA	CIN	7.4240	-13
CLE	SF	91.1075	13
GB	DET	96.8080	21
HOU	JAX	37.4797	14
PHI	BUF	67.1497	8
ARI	STL	98.8517	29

Teams that "should have" won but didn't
New York Giants (vs. Patriots), Win Prob = 65.5888% The Giants averaged 4.2 yards per carry. The Patriots averaged 1.7 ypc. The Giants averaged 7.2 yards per pass. The Patriots averaged 5.7 ypp.
Tampa Bay Bucs (vs. Panthers), Win Prob = 58.6529% Carolina had two fumbles, only one of which was lost.
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Texans), Win Prob = 62.5203% Jacksonville averaged 7.0 yards per pass versus 6.3 for the Texans, and they were better on third down. Houston also threw one pick against one Jags fumble. Houston also ran only 19 pass plays, inflating the interception and sack rates.

Team	Actual Wins	Expected Wins	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	7.0	6.0130	6.0130
MIA	1.0	4.8802	4.8802
NE	16.0	13.0344	13.0344
NYJ	4.0	5.6439	5.6439
AFC North
BAL	5.0	5.9129	5.9129
CIN	7.0	8.2068	8.2068
CLE	10.0	8.7118	8.7118
PIT	10.0	10.3588	10.3588
AFC South
HOU	8.0	7.1100	7.1100
IND	13.0	12.8716	12.8716
JAX	11.0	10.9018	10.9018
TEN	10.0	8.6333	8.6333
AFC West
DEN	7.0	7.4514	7.4514
KC	4.0	6.5403	6.5403
OAK	4.0	4.8954	4.8954
SD	11.0	9.4046	9.4046
NFC East
DAL	13.0	10.9563	10.9563
NYG	10.0	8.2172	8.2172
PHI	8.0	9.3634	9.3634
WAS	9.0	8.7441	8.7441
NFC North
CHI	7.0	5.1287	5.1287
DET	7.0	6.8191	6.8191
GB	13.0	10.6343	10.6343
MIN	8.0	8.5282	8.5282
NFC South
ATL	4.0	7.1051	7.1051
CAR	7.0	6.5853	6.5853
NO	7.0	7.4786	7.4786
TB	9.0	10.8666	10.8666
NFC West
ARI	8.0	6.8021	6.8021
STL	3.0	5.3037	5.3037
SF	5.0	2.6555	2.6555
SEA	10.0	10.2418	10.2418

The average margin of error was 1.3611 games.

Teams that won >1.3611 more games than their expected win total are expected to decline in 2008. Those teams are:

• New England Patriots (16 actual vs. 13.0344 expected)
  
• Tennessee Titans (10 vs. 8.633)
  
• San Diego Chargers (11 vs. 9.4046)
  
• Dallas Cowboys (13 vs. 10.9563)
  
• New York Giants (10 vs. 8.2172)
  
• Chicago Bears (7 vs. 5.1287)
  
• Green Bay Packers (13 vs. 10.6343)
  
• San Francisco 49ers (5 vs. 2.6555)
  

Teams that won >1.3611 fewer games than their expected win total are expected to improve in 2008. Those teams are:

• Miami Dolphins (1 actual vs. 4.8802 expected)
  
• New York Jets (4 vs. 5.6439)
  
• Kansas City Chiefs (4 vs. 6.5043)
  
• Philadelphia Eagles (8 vs. 9.3634)
  
• Atlanta Falcons (4 vs. 7.1051)
  
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9 vs. 10.8666)
  
• St. Louis Rams (3 vs. 5.3037)