Predictions 2007 Week 17 and Accuracy Report

Predictions based on unadjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
CIN @ MIA	-0.1176	50.1338
KC @ NYJ	3.0674	61.8436
PIT @ BAL	-2.8064	42.2222
SF @ CLE	7.6368	73.4936
JAX @ HOU	-0.5547	47.5887
TEN @ IND	8.8261	77.2495
MIN @ DEN	0.8529	48.2096
SD @ OAK	-1.6984	40.4813
NE @ NYG	-2.1160	42.3982
BUF @ PHI	6.5138	70.5099
DAL @ WAS	-1.1077	46.4259
NO @ CHI	-0.1469	49.6856
DET @ GB	7.3349	70.3761
SEA @ ATL	-1.4903	45.5305
CAR @ TB	7.5646	75.4810
STL @ ARI	4.7591	67.1907

OPPONENT-ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 67.7885%
Mean absolute error: 11.4810 points
Correlation with result: 0.4188
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.5962%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 66.8269%
Correlation with result: 0.4086
% of games predicted as home team wins: 74.5192%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 76.1905
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 65.5172
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 49.0196
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 73.2143
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 67.5676
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 90.9091

UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 65.8654%
Mean absolute error: 11.5186 points
Correlation with result: 0.3987
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.6346%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 64.4231%
Correlation with result: 0.3894
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.1154%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 70.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 47.6190
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 64.9123
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 78.3784
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 69.2308
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000