Tuesday, December 11, 2007

The Value of Homefield Advantage 2007 Week 14

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

I am completely baffled about the divisional games, though it's starting to regress to the mean a little from last week.

All Games
Home Team Win %: 55.2885%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.2404

Home Team Win %: 64.8148%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 5.5556

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 64.4737%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 3.8026

Home Team Win %: 39.7436%
Avg. Final Score Margin: -1.5769

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