Tuesday, December 4, 2007

The Value of Homefield Advantage 2007 Week 13

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

I am completely baffled about the divisional games.

All Games
Home Team Win %: 55.2083%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 1.8542

Home Team Win %: 62.0000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 4.3000

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 68.1159%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 4.5942

Home Team Win %: 38.3562%
Avg. Final Score Margin: -2.4110

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