Sunday, September 30, 2007

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 4 (Updated)

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table to be added after the Monday night game. The first table will be updated as more box scores come in. Updates added

















Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
ATLHOU91.029210
BUFNYJ58.88563
SFSEA0.0325-20
CARTB1.4607-13
CLEBAL80.768914
DALSTL99.906728
DETCHI98.304710
MINGB55.6513-7
MIAOAK11.8727-18
ARIPIT96.50657
INDDEN97.473318
SDKC10.5059-14
NYGPHI98.650713
CINNE1.2293-21


Teams that "should have" won but didn't
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Packers), Win Prob = 55.6513% Green Bay was significantly more efficient in the passing game (7.34 ypa vs. 5.28) but four fumbles and a far lower rushing efficiency (2.3 vs 7) probably led to this estimate.


















































TeamActual WinsExpected WinsProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF1.00.63832.5531
MIA0.01.41865.6745
NE4.03.963815.8554
NYJ1.01.30765.2305
AFC North
BAL2.01.49515.9804
CIN1.01.46675.8667
CLE2.01.75537.0211
PIT3.02.954111.8164
AFC South
HOU2.01.98937.9571
IND4.03.409113.6364
JAX2.02.010510.7225
TEN2.01.50398.0207
AFC West
DEN2.02.32059.2819
KC2.02.46749.8697
OAK2.01.85867.4344
SD1.01.21574.8630
NFC East
DAL4.03.831015.3239
NYG2.01.97707.9082
PHI1.01.97727.9086
WAS2.01.12786.0150
NFC North
CHI1.00.28201.1280
DET3.02.770311.0812
GB4.02.716610.8662
MIN1.01.78957.1580
NFC South
ATL1.02.03028.1207
CAR2.01.59016.3603
NO0.00.13720.7319
TB3.03.058812.2353
NFC West
ARI2.01.92937.7173
STL0.00.95893.8354
SF2.00.99053.9619
SEA3.03.059212.2368

Read More......

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Just a quick notice

I've added projections/rankings based on unadjusted or opponent-adjusted stats to some of the articles that went up today. Take a look.

I really should have said what I adjusted the stats for. Sorry bout that.

Read More......

Week 4 Predictions

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

















GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
NYJ @ BUF3.510565.9978
OAK @ MIA6.323870.3696
NE @ CIN-2.151238.6068
BAL @ CLE0.726552.6149
DEN @ IND5.487566.5365
KC @ SD3.564660.7375
STL @ DAL9.480780.1174
PHI @ NYG-0.236946.0162
CHI @ DET6.873671.3616
GB @ MIN3.711567.9140
HOU @ ATL-1.529942.1268
TB @ CAR-0.065851.4045
PIT @ ARI0.689255.9588
SEA @ SF-2.928341.3111


Week 3 accuracy numbers delayed until probably Sunday...

Addition: Here are predictions based on unadjusted stats for those who are curious
















GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
NYJ @ BUF-1.371149.0697
OAK @ MIA8.437174.1058
NE @ CIN-8.839919.1132
BAL @ CLE-0.138948.9705
DEN @ IND4.665163.2223
KC @ SD1.010753.3276
STL @ DAL13.213886.9832
PHI @ NYG-2.872638.2994
CHI @ DET8.720973.7411
GB @ MIN4.023269.0136
HOU @ ATL-0.275846.5515
TB @ CAR-3.578839.4783
PIT @ ARI-4.772437.5988
SEA @ SF-3.261740.1031

Read More......

Stats (Raw and VOLA), Week 3

This is something additional I'll try posting every week. This is the data I use to make my predictions and power rankings. Below are the tables for the raw stats and the values over league average for all of the inputs I use. Rush and pass stats are yards per play. See for yourself where your team's strengths and weaknesses are. If third down conversion rates correlate with third down DVOA at all, then that might be good news for the 2008 Dolphins who are 12th in pass offense but bottom of the barrel in third down conversion rate. (Football Outsiders says that teams that perform significantly worse on 3rd down than 1st and 2nd will improve the following year because the 3rd down performance will regress to the mean.)


Unadjusted




































Rush offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0552)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1CLE36.57805.5385
2PIT35.85805.5093
3OAK19.06504.8283
4DAL18.96404.8242
5PHI15.87204.6988
6CAR14.45404.6413
7NYG13.87104.6176
8ARI11.91804.5385
9DEN11.81004.5341
10TEN9.81064.4530
11MIN6.67514.3258
12BUF6.53104.3200
13NE4.86244.2523
14IND3.88014.2125
15TB1.75784.1264
16SEA-1.06314.0120
17WAS-1.60433.9901
18BAL-1.91433.9775
19SF-6.84023.7778
20DET-7.29683.7593
21JAX-7.58743.7475
22ATL-7.86773.7361
23MIA-7.91053.7344
24NO-13.32703.5147
25STL-13.69003.5000
26CIN-13.84603.4937
27CHI-17.16803.3590
28NYJ-20.73603.2143
29HOU-21.32303.1905
30GB-28.52802.8983
31KC-34.24002.6667
32SD-40.69902.4047




































Rush defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0552)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1MIN37.73402.5250
2BAL28.71702.8906
3CHI19.34703.2706
4TEN17.65303.3393
5NE17.05303.3636
6PHI14.48603.4677
7NYG11.97003.5698
8HOU11.37803.5938
9NO9.40713.6737
10GB8.79193.6986
11IND8.08563.7273
12SD7.61203.7465
13CAR7.20073.7632
14KC6.07053.8090
15NYJ4.50823.8723
16SEA4.48173.8734
17DAL2.85473.9394
18WAS2.76933.9429
19TB1.88483.9787
20PIT1.77123.9833
21ARI-1.56014.1184
22DET-6.31184.3111
23MIA-6.78834.3304
24ATL-8.55474.4021
25JAX-10.16604.4674
26SF-12.01904.5425
27DEN-13.71004.6111
28STL-14.99604.6633
29OAK-19.19004.8333
30CLE-19.68004.8532
31BUF-27.37005.1651
32CIN-34.08905.4375




































Pass offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.3127)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE51.10009.5385
2DAL40.01508.8387
3IND30.68908.2500
4DEN24.32907.8485
5TB21.87107.6933
6HOU16.46807.3523
7SEA11.82007.0588
8JAX11.45407.0357
9CIN10.88807.0000
10PHI8.76626.8661
11DET7.26406.7712
12PIT5.60746.6667
13MIA5.42996.6555
14ARI3.92956.5607
15CAR1.81216.4271
16CLE0.14346.3217
17ATL-1.20916.2364
18GB-1.95316.1894
19WAS-2.79326.1364
20NYG-3.17916.1120
21OAK-5.98655.9348
22SD-6.44785.9057
23TEN-11.20605.6053
24KC-13.18505.4804
25BAL-13.54505.4576
26NYJ-18.10105.1700
27STL-18.49305.1453
28MIN-20.46405.0209
29NO-23.27704.8433
30SF-31.64204.3152
31CHI-33.11504.2222
32BUF-41.70503.6800




































Pass defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.3127)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1DEN37.34503.9552
2NE31.29804.3369
3PIT28.85904.4909
4KC22.12804.9158
5WAS18.67405.1339
6IND15.95405.3056
7TB10.87405.6262
8ARI10.61105.6428
9MIN9.77995.6953
10PHI7.00915.8702
11SF6.89315.8775
12TEN6.77125.8852
13MIA3.68606.0800
14DAL3.27916.1057
15GB2.45216.1579
16STL2.27606.1690
17BAL0.95866.2522
18HOU-0.08706.3182
19JAX-0.84766.3662
20CAR-1.05546.3793
21CHI-1.29596.3945
22CIN-7.41386.7807
23OAK-9.60346.9189
24SEA-10.21706.9577
25SD-11.78407.0566
26ATL-13.56207.1688
27CLE-17.34707.4078
28DET-19.30807.5315
29NYJ-25.77807.9400
30NYG-26.57007.9900
31BUF-27.18108.0285
32NO-57.75109.9583




































Sack rate made, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.4048%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1JAX119.900014.0842
2DEN109.730013.4329
3PIT70.326010.9091
4NE69.709010.8696
5PHI66.859010.6870
6KC64.350010.5263
7SF43.38709.1837
8CHI43.24009.1743
9ATL41.93809.0909
10MIN34.17608.5937
11DET12.52807.2072
12ARI11.52307.1429
13STL9.95227.0423
14SD3.10616.6038
15IND1.19676.4815
16HOU-0.64326.3636
17SEA-7.37935.9322
18WAS-13.94305.5118
19MIA-16.73005.3333
20BAL-18.54005.2174
21TB-21.14505.0505
22DAL-23.83804.8780
23OAK-29.67004.5045
24GB-31.52104.3860
25TEN-36.01104.0984
26NYG-37.54704.0000
27CLE-39.36603.8835
28CIN-45.21703.5088
29BUF-55.39102.8571
30CAR-73.08101.7241
31NYJ-84.38701.0000
32NO-100.00000.0000




































Sack rate allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.4048%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1ARI70.81601.8692
2IND54.96202.8846
3NO53.39302.9851
4CIN51.58703.1008
5NE48.52803.2967
6NYG37.54704.0000
7DEN36.91604.0404
8MIA34.39804.2017
9SEA23.46504.9019
10PIT22.89804.9383
11BAL20.61105.0847
12GB17.20305.3030
13DAL16.05805.3763
14HOU11.28905.6818
15WAS11.28905.6818
16CLE4.96316.0870
17PHI2.41756.2500
18CAR2.41756.2500
19TEN-2.71856.5789
20STL-6.75706.8376
21MIN-13.84607.2916
22SD-17.83607.5472
23KC-22.45707.8432
24TB-24.90608.0000
25CHI-41.93809.0909
26OAK-52.73809.7826
27SF-52.73809.7826
28DET-53.07109.8039
29NYJ-56.132010.0000
30BUF-66.541010.6667
31JAX-67.284010.7143
32ATL-98.714012.7273




































Third down % converted, Unadjusted (League Avg = 42.0267%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1PIT32.191055.5555
2HOU22.023051.2823
3NYG18.972050.0000
4ATL16.205048.8371
5TEN15.757048.6489
6NE14.566048.1483
7NYJ13.307047.6192
8NO11.040046.6665
9IND9.325645.9460
10CIN7.641345.2381
11BAL6.832044.8980
12DEN6.448644.7368
13OAK5.752944.4445
14WAS5.752944.4445
15CLE4.463243.9024
16SD3.719143.5897
17JAX1.976042.8572
18GB1.126242.5000
19SEA-0.856741.6667
20CAR-4.822440.0000
21DAL-6.074839.4737
22TB-6.264539.3939
23MIA-9.021438.2353
24PHI-15.020035.7143
25MIN-15.020035.7143
26STL-15.020035.7143
27DET-16.720034.9998
28ARI-16.720034.9998
29BUF-18.419034.2858
30KC-20.685033.3335
31CHI-27.295030.5555
32SF-34.565027.5002




































Third down % allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 42.0267%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1STL27.896030.3029
2ATL20.685033.3335
3BAL16.996034.8838
4TB15.020035.7143
5NE13.475036.3636
6SD12.754036.6666
7CIN12.336036.8423
8CHI12.064036.9566
9WAS10.110037.7778
10PIT9.354738.0952
11KC9.354738.0952
12PHI8.872538.2979
13DEN5.929139.5349
14MIN2.659340.9091
15NO-0.945942.4242
16CLE-2.748543.1818
17GB-4.463243.9024
18SF-4.463243.9024
19CAR-5.138044.1860
20SEA-5.752944.4445
21NYG-6.448644.7368
22IND-7.074845.0000
23OAK-8.156345.4545
24DET-9.820346.1539
25NYJ-12.362047.2221
26TEN-12.362047.2221
27HOU-12.710047.3683
28DAL-12.710047.3683
29BUF-15.921048.7178
30MIA-16.070048.7804
31JAX-18.972050.0000
32ARI-18.972050.0000




































Int. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.7795%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1JAX100.00000.0000
2TB100.00000.0000
3PHI67.87700.8928
4IND65.40600.9615
5CAR62.52301.0417
6SF60.89301.0870
7NE60.46301.0989
8PIT55.58201.2346
9GB45.48701.5152
10BAL39.02001.6949
11ATL34.58501.8182
12SEA29.45401.9608
13NYJ28.04302.0000
14DAL22.62702.1505
15STL7.74802.5641
16TEN5.32042.6316
17BUF4.05802.6667
18ARI-0.87362.8037
19KC-5.81842.9412
20CIN-11.56003.1008
21NYG-15.13003.2000
22HOU-22.65303.4091
23WAS-22.65303.4091
24SD-35.76703.7736
25DET-41.09103.9216
26DEN-45.36704.0404
27MIA-51.16904.2017
28CLE-56.42704.3478
29MIN-87.38705.2083
30NO-87.94605.2239
31OAK-95.53405.4348
32CHI-118.05006.0606




































Int. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.7795%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1DAL134.00006.5039
2DEN114.80005.9703
3OAK94.47705.4054
4DET94.47705.4054
5CIN57.79904.3860
6TEN47.45204.0984
7TB45.36704.0404
8MIN40.54003.9062
9IND33.25303.7037
10NE17.32003.2609
11KC13.61603.1579
12JAX1.34722.8169
13CHI-0.97732.7523
14PIT-1.87752.7273
15HOU-1.87752.7273
16MIA-4.05802.6667
17GB-5.32042.6316
18SEA-8.52982.5424
19PHI-17.60702.2901
20SF-26.57502.0408
21NYG-28.04302.0000
22CLE-30.13901.9418
23BUF-31.47001.9048
24SD-32.11601.8868
25BAL-37.42901.7391
26WAS-43.34101.5748
27NO-50.03001.3889
28ATL-53.27501.2987
29NYJ-64.02201.0000
30CAR-100.00000.0000
31ARI-100.00000.0000
32STL-100.00000.0000




































Fum. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.1713%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1GB78.40200.6849
2DAL57.09801.3605
3ARI55.27201.4185
4PIT40.12701.8987
5ATL37.76401.9737
6IND36.51102.0134
7MIA31.94302.1583
8BUF23.09102.4390
9JAX19.14602.5641
10DEN18.09602.5974
11PHI18.09602.5974
12SEA16.46902.6490
13NYJ15.34802.6846
14NE12.40902.7778
15NYG11.79602.7972
16MIN11.79602.7972
17TEN6.15212.9762
18CIN3.27333.0675
19SD2.07183.1056
20SF-1.71903.2258
21HOU-3.72663.2895
22TB-15.08403.6496
23CAR-21.28003.8461
24NO-22.06303.8710
25WAS-26.97804.0268
26STL-26.97804.0268
27KC-30.48104.1379
28BAL-31.38704.1667
29DET-37.95604.3750
30CLE-73.80305.5118
31CHI-88.25605.9701
32OAK-116.79006.8750




































Fum. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.1713%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1DET67.92705.3255
2HOU57.66405.0000
3SD54.35704.8951
4STL51.18504.7945
5CIN47.15404.6667
6IND41.49404.4872
7DAL36.11304.3165
8PIT30.30104.1322
9NE24.14503.9370
10DEN23.65803.9216
11TB18.99203.7736
12GB12.61703.5714
13MIN11.95103.5503
14CLE9.99853.4884
15PHI9.48923.4722
16ARI5.81513.3557
17CAR4.41363.3113
18SF2.37953.2468
19SEA1.06703.2051
20BAL-5.16423.0075
21JAX-10.54502.8369
22NYG-15.91202.6667
23MIA-20.67202.5157
24CHI-22.61902.4540
25TEN-29.92702.2222
26KC-36.51102.0134
27NO-55.27201.4185
28ATL-57.09801.3605
29WAS-57.95601.3333
30OAK-58.23501.3245
31NYJ-61.30901.2270
32BUF-63.54601.1561



Adjusted



































Rush offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0552)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1DAL29.85305.2657
2NYG19.47004.8447
3IND18.12304.7901
4PHI16.73504.7338
5ARI16.18404.7114
6PIT14.07304.6258
7ATL11.88504.5371
8BUF10.13104.4660
9CLE9.72044.4493
10TEN9.08514.4236
11CAR6.52784.3199
12OAK4.07964.2206
13MIN3.81924.2100
14WAS3.53024.1983
15DET3.27704.1880
16NE0.28904.0669
17TB-1.21194.0060
18MIA-4.45813.8744
19NO-6.61293.7870
20DEN-7.86813.7361
21SEA-8.39383.7148
22BAL-8.45693.7122
23SF-10.73703.6198
24JAX-11.54703.5869
25NYJ-11.58503.5854
26CHI-12.20103.5604
27CIN-12.73203.5389
28STL-13.06903.5252
29KC-14.94503.4491
30HOU-15.51103.4262
31GB-19.10803.2803
32SD-30.07202.8357




































Rush defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0552)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1MIN25.82303.0080
2BAL20.85903.2093
3TEN14.08003.4842
4NO13.66003.5012
5WAS10.39303.6337
6NYG8.57753.7073
7PIT6.65853.7851
8DET6.32653.7986
9SEA5.14073.8467
10PHI5.11883.8476
11SF4.13493.8875
12IND3.42803.9161
13NYJ3.01023.9331
14HOU1.46893.9956
15DAL0.73264.0254
16GB0.50194.0348
17NE0.37364.0400
18CHI-0.49964.0754
19SD-1.65044.1221
20ATL-3.08354.1802
21JAX-3.95884.2157
22ARI-4.88964.2534
23CLE-5.62244.2832
24KC-6.12694.3036
25TB-8.15974.3860
26DEN-8.31664.3924
27OAK-8.38174.3950
28BUF-9.45324.4385
29MIA-9.69154.4482
30CAR-9.69694.4484
31STL-9.93844.4582
32CIN-16.41304.7207




































Pass offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.3127)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1HOU33.89208.4522
2DAL28.55908.1155
3JAX24.27607.8452
4NE24.21807.8415
5SEA18.25907.4653
6IND17.91307.4435
7DET11.78407.0566
8DEN10.16506.9544
9PHI8.43726.8453
10NYG5.27866.6459
11MIA4.47706.5953
12SD4.43386.5926
13CLE4.10026.5715
14ARI1.35656.3983
15ATL0.70036.3569
16CIN0.21696.3264
17TB-0.02836.3109
18CAR-0.17486.3017
19NYJ-4.99235.9975
20WAS-5.64325.9565
21PIT-6.75425.8863
22KC-10.24005.6663
23GB-12.19705.5427
24STL-13.60305.4540
25NO-13.69005.4485
26OAK-13.77805.4429
27BUF-14.28705.4108
28SF-15.33805.3444
29BAL-16.53705.2688
30TEN-18.71305.1314
31MIN-22.70104.8796
32CHI-28.28204.5273




































Pass defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.3127)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1DEN27.77004.5597
2WAS21.37904.9631
3NE12.95005.4952
4KC10.55305.6465
5TEN9.99935.6815
6PHI9.10105.7382
7IND8.88685.7517
8MIN8.75495.7600
9MIA8.60435.7695
10HOU6.54125.8998
11JAX6.30205.9149
12CHI4.64436.0195
13PIT3.23026.1088
14ARI2.50496.1546
15GB0.62716.2731
16OAK0.44796.2844
17SEA0.29846.2938
18BUF-0.74946.3600
19STL-1.33816.3972
20TB-1.47826.4060
21BAL-2.17006.4497
22CAR-2.27826.4565
23SF-3.39056.5267
24DAL-6.69546.7353
25CIN-8.35946.8404
26SD-8.60006.8556
27NYJ-11.91307.0647
28CLE-12.15607.0801
29NYG-13.06907.1377
30ATL-16.37907.3466
31DET-24.68107.8707
32NO-38.44208.7394




































Sack rate made, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.4048%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1SF85.459011.8783
2JAX55.14109.9365
3KC43.97009.2210
4PIT42.28709.1132
5PHI41.09109.0366
6CHI34.45008.6113
7DEN30.80408.3778
8SD23.94407.9384
9TB23.66207.9203
10IND22.13007.8222
11NE17.93507.5535
12ARI15.83307.4189
13WAS14.64607.3429
14ATL10.82307.0980
15HOU9.92427.0405
16BAL9.34787.0035
17SEA7.62716.8933
18TEN-0.40986.3786
19DET-4.41876.1218
20DAL-14.14605.4988
21MIA-14.93305.4484
22GB-18.86005.1969
23MIN-21.33405.0384
24OAK-22.22704.9812
25STL-24.80404.8162
26NYG-27.34304.6536
27BUF-28.25404.5952
28CLE-29.18004.5359
29CIN-29.70804.5021
30NYJ-76.20001.5244
31CAR-80.61901.2413
32NO-100.00000.0000




































Sack rate allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.4048%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1ARI71.91101.7991
2NO40.72503.7965
3CIN39.04603.9040
4IND37.96703.9731
5CLE32.87004.2996
6GB29.76204.4986
7NE28.25704.5950
8HOU25.81204.7516
9MIN21.61505.0204
10TEN20.41405.0974
11NYG18.09105.2461
12DAL17.79605.2650
13CAR16.51805.3469
14DEN12.62605.5962
15BUF6.72595.9741
16BAL4.23736.1334
17SD0.09436.3988
18KC-0.37186.4286
19PIT-1.88616.5256
20PHI-6.11936.7968
21SEA-8.43146.9449
22WAS-10.06507.0495
23DET-14.48307.3324
24STL-22.33607.8354
25SF-27.31908.1546
26TB-31.31408.4104
27OAK-33.59008.5562
28CHI-36.79708.7616
29JAX-37.06308.7787
30NYJ-41.41709.0575
31MIA-48.98009.5419
32ATL-61.380010.3361




































Third down % converted, Adjusted (League Avg = 42.0267%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1HOU23.885052.0648
2PIT21.631051.1175
3NYJ19.841050.3652
4NYG19.024050.0219
5SD12.913047.4536
6NO12.349047.2166
7CLE11.585046.8955
8ATL9.615146.0676
9JAX9.103645.8527
10NE7.771245.2927
11CIN6.973744.9575
12GB6.787044.8791
13TEN6.327844.6861
14CAR5.650844.4016
15OAK3.452643.4777
16WAS3.145243.3485
17SEA2.142942.9273
18TB-0.194841.9448
19IND-0.254941.9196
20DEN-5.235539.8264
21BAL-5.367939.7708
22DAL-9.249238.1396
23BUF-9.390838.0801
24MIN-12.302036.8566
25MIA-12.918036.5977
26ARI-14.667035.8627
27STL-15.164035.6538
28PHI-15.927035.3331
29DET-16.444035.1158
30KC-17.787034.5514
31CHI-26.077031.0674
32SF-27.438030.4954




































Third down % allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 42.0267%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1BAL18.930034.0711
2ATL16.465035.1070
3TB16.327035.1650
4CIN14.740035.8320
5STL13.562036.3270
6WAS11.863037.0411
7NE11.384037.2424
8CLE10.449037.6353
9KC8.171038.5927
10IND7.509938.8705
11PHI7.348538.9384
12SD7.287838.9639
13CHI5.464639.7301
14BUF5.002939.9242
15DEN4.845039.9905
16NO4.012240.3405
17CAR-1.362142.5992
18MIN-4.112643.7551
19TEN-4.302843.8350
20JAX-4.729044.0142
21NYJ-5.905244.5085
22SF-6.689944.8383
23NYG-6.757044.8665
24GB-7.001444.9692
25SEA-7.637045.2363
26MIA-10.285046.3492
27PIT-10.552046.4614
28OAK-10.567046.4677
29HOU-15.557048.5648
30DET-19.359050.1627
31DAL-21.200050.9364
32ARI-23.896052.0694




































Int. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.7795%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1JAX100.00000.0000
2TB100.00000.0000
3IND76.53800.6521
4PHI66.07100.9430
5CAR61.80601.0616
6BAL61.35601.0741
7SF60.14501.1078
8SEA55.29401.2426
9ATL53.45501.2937
10NE41.75801.6188
11BUF36.77801.7572
12STL36.53801.7639
13PIT35.18501.8015
14GB29.04001.9723
15DAL7.16852.5802
16OAK5.16302.6360
17HOU2.65152.7058
18DET-2.91942.8606
19KC-7.51632.9884
20NYJ-15.00003.1964
21CLE-15.76803.2177
22DEN-26.26303.5094
23SD-27.98703.5573
24ARI-28.34903.5674
25NO-31.60403.6579
26WAS-34.84803.7480
27MIA-35.71403.7721
28CIN-40.82703.9142
29TEN-41.44703.9315
30NYG-44.30004.0108
31MIN-57.29204.3719
32CHI-64.09904.5611




































Int. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.7795%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1CIN113.16005.9247
2HOU49.09104.1439
3GB48.90404.1387
4TEN48.00904.1138
5MIN45.70304.0498
6DAL43.04903.9760
7DEN38.35803.8456
8TB37.51803.8223
9OAK31.98203.6684
10PIT25.45503.4870
11NYG12.50003.1269
12DET2.34232.8446
13SD1.41512.8188
14BUF0.71432.7993
15NE-1.63042.7341
16CHI-1.83492.7285
17PHI-7.76082.5637
18IND-10.22902.4951
19JAX-11.62002.4565
20BAL-13.04302.4169
21SEA-15.11302.3594
22MIA-21.77802.1741
23SF-27.21102.0231
24KC-34.38601.8237
25CLE-37.37901.7405
26NO-47.22201.4669
27WAS-50.78701.3679
28ATL-75.06500.6931
29NYJ-76.20000.6615
30CAR-100.00000.0000
31ARI-100.00000.0000
32STL-100.00000.0000




































Fum. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.1713%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1GB80.27400.6256
2ARI54.57401.4406
3DAL47.44901.6665
4PIT44.21901.7690
5ATL41.73201.8478
6PHI39.25001.9266
7BUF38.94301.9363
8SEA25.43002.3648
9CAR21.42902.4917
10SF18.29502.5911
11NYJ16.91302.6349
12MIA12.71002.7682
13IND9.06042.8840
14HOU3.47123.0612
15CIN3.33333.0656
16TB1.23043.1323
17SD0.43483.1575
18NYG-7.80893.4189
19JAX-8.65383.4457
20NO-9.07833.4592
21TEN-10.45903.5030
22MIN-12.39303.5643
23KC-17.01103.7108
24STL-20.33603.8162
25DET-24.41703.9456
26NE-27.38104.0396
27BAL-30.02604.1235
28WAS-48.18804.6995
29CHI-49.91104.7541
30DEN-50.97404.7878
31OAK-60.24305.0818
32CLE-69.41505.3726




































Fum. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.1713%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1PHI66.25305.2724
2HOU42.97604.5342
3NE41.65404.4923
4IND34.65804.2704
5STL33.42504.2313
6DET30.90404.1513
7BAL30.03804.1239
8GB29.07104.0932
9DAL28.53704.0763
10SF28.35504.0705
11SD22.37803.8810
12CAR20.13203.8097
13TB11.84503.5469
14ARI8.38933.4373
15DEN6.29833.3710
16CLE5.56383.3477
17CIN4.19053.3042
18JAX2.26953.2433
19MIA0.89103.1995
20NYG-1.33333.1290
21MIN-1.62023.1199
22SEA-5.51282.9965
23PIT-6.13932.9766
24TEN-15.18502.6897
25CHI-30.83802.1933
26NO-40.94601.8728
27KC-44.36201.7644
28WAS-45.27801.7354
29ATL-49.15001.6126
30BUF-56.93601.3657
31OAK-62.48801.1896
32NYJ-63.19001.1674

Read More......

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 3 (Updated)

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table to be added after the Monday night game. The first table will be updated as more box scores come in. Updates finished.



















Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
BALARI80.36083
GBSD87.80777
DENJAX32.4010-9
WASNYG16.6049-7
OAKCLE92.23922
SEACIN66.49043
HOUIND0.6929-6
KCMIN79.09213
NEBUF99.811931
NYJMIA37.48403
PHIDET99.778735
PITSF94.512821
TBSTL99.042821
ATLCAR40.0107-7
CHIDAL1.4154-24
NOTEN13.2432-17


Teams that "should have" won but didn't
Miami Dolphins (@ Jets), Win Prob = 62.5160% So yeah, this post is going up earlier than normal because I'm a bitter Dolfan right now. Blame this one on terrible red zone offense and special teams. Ted Ginn's had TWO punt returns. TWO. I'm glad we spent a #9 pick on someone to call for a fair catch. Meanwhile, Leon Washington gets a 98-yard return. Lots of 2-TE formations and no real noticable attempts to go deep. But this week, dumping off to the running back proved real successful for the Fins. The Dolphins outperformed the Jets in most of the stats used in this system and still lost.




















































TeamActual WinsExpected WinsProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF0.00.04940.2636
MIA0.01.29996.9328
NE3.02.976115.8728
NYJ1.00.89654.7812
AFC North
BAL2.01.30286.9482
CIN1.01.45447.7567
CLE1.00.94765.0538
PIT3.02.919215.5688
AFC South
HOU2.01.899610.1311
IND3.02.434412.9833
JAX2.02.010510.7225
TEN2.01.50398.0207
AFC West
DEN2.02.295212.2411
KC1.01.57258.3866
OAK1.00.97735.2125
SD1.01.11075.9236
NFC East
DAL3.02.831915.1035
NYG1.00.99055.2828
PHI1.01.963710.4728
WAS2.01.12786.0150
NFC North
CHI1.00.26501.4135
DET2.01.78739.5320
GB3.02.273112.1230
MIN1.01.23306.5759
NFC South
ATL0.01.11995.9727
CAR2.01.57558.4025
NO0.00.13720.7319
TB2.02.073411.0584
NFC West
ARI1.00.96435.1427
STL0.00.95795.1089
SF2.00.99015.2808
SEA2.02.059510.9841


Detroit still looks like a 10-win team, eerily matching Kitna's prediction. The small sample size, however, will bring them down immensely in the power rankings going up next. That one game made their pass defense look like one of the worst in the league. This is also why you shouldn't trust averages entirely.

Read More......

Projected Final Standings 2007 Week 3

Using the projected win probabilities from the logistic regression power rankings, I estimated which games each team would win on the rest of their respective schedules. And then I summed the projected wins with the actual wins so far to get their projected win totals. The teams are sorted by division.

Edit: Now projected final standings based on adjusted stats are added.



















































Projected Final Standings
TeamProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF5
MIA6
NE14
NYJ4
AFC North
BAL7
CIN7
CLE6
PIT11
AFC South
HOU12
IND16
JAX10
TEN9
AFC West
DEN13
KC6
OAK4
SD5
NFC East
DAL15
NYG6
PHI12
WAS7
NFC North
CHI2
DET8
GB11
MIN8
NFC South
ATL6
CAR7
NO0
TB9
NFC West
ARI10
STL1
SF6
SEA13



















































Projected Final Standings
TeamProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF0
MIA7
NE16
NYJ3
AFC North
BAL9
CIN7
CLE6
PIT14
AFC South
HOU10
IND15
JAX8
TEN9
AFC West
DEN14
KC8
OAK4
SD4
NFC East
DAL15
NYG7
PHI10
WAS7
NFC North
CHI2
DET7
GB11
MIN10
NFC South
ATL5
CAR7
NO0
TB14
NFC West
ARI10
STL1
SF4
SEA12

Read More......

Power Rankings 2007 Week 3

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The first power rankings use linear regression to predict the final score margins of each such game. The score you see along with the rankings is the sum of all of those expected margins.

The second power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

From here on out, the power rankings will be based on the adjusted VOLA (value over league average) stats.




































Power Rankings, Linear Regression
RankTeamExpected Point Differential
1IND5.1372
2NE4.6963
3PHI4.4882
4DAL4.4489
5HOU4.2759
6JAX2.7364
7DEN2.2194
8PIT2.0808
9SEA1.9967
10WAS1.0809
11NYG0.9683
12TB0.8943
13TEN0.3019
14CAR-0.0282
15MIN-0.3278
16BAL-0.3986
17ARI-0.4182
18ATL-0.4516
19MIA-0.4580
20GB-0.4797
21CLE-1.1080
22CIN-1.4180
23BUF-1.5398
24DET-1.6907
25SD-1.7952
26SF-2.6270
27KC-2.7353
28NYJ-2.9009
29OAK-2.9807
30STL-3.2558
31CHI-5.2796
32NO-5.4321



































Power Rankings, Logistic Regression
RankTeamExpected Wins
1IND10.7001
2DAL10.5789
3PHI10.4336
4NE10.3860
5HOU10.1382
6JAX9.4433
7DEN9.2701
8SEA9.1180
9PIT8.9880
10WAS8.6391
11NYG8.4719
12TB8.2504
13TEN8.1991
14ARI8.1641
15MIN8.0222
16MIA7.9489
17CAR7.8971
18BAL7.6365
19GB7.5572
20ATL7.5167
21DET7.3864
22CLE7.2844
23BUF7.1819
24CIN6.9683
25SD6.7951
26SF6.7815
27KC6.6613
28OAK6.5439
29NYJ6.3535
30STL6.1707
31CHI5.4655
32NO5.0481



Adddition: For those who are curious, here are the rankings based on unadjusted stats.


































Power Rankings, Linear Regression
RankTeamExpected Point Differential
1NE11.2720
2PIT8.1241
3DAL7.4265
4DEN7.1949
5IND7.0557
6TB4.9459
7PHI3.8690
8HOU1.7319
9TEN1.5146
10MIN1.2234
11ARI0.8836
12CAR0.7423
13BAL0.6645
14WAS0.5989
15SEA0.4970
16JAX0.1947
17GB0.1204
18MIA-1.0742
19CIN-1.1317
20NYG-1.3867
21ATL-1.7138
22CLE-2.0001
23DET-2.0462
24KC-2.0476
25SD-3.2215
26STL-3.4520
27OAK-3.6659
28SF-4.5673
29NYJ-6.0060
30CHI-6.0192
31BUF-9.7513
32NO-9.9761



































Power Rankings, Logistic Regression
RankTeamExpected Wins
1NE12.9813
2PIT11.6263
3DAL11.6066
4IND11.3967
5DEN11.3499
6TB10.4152
7PHI10.0796
8ARI8.8136
9MIN8.7847
10HOU8.7794
11TEN8.7690
12CAR8.5410
13WAS8.3187
14SEA8.3100
15BAL8.2196
16JAX8.2002
17GB7.9602
18MIA7.6812
19NYG7.2284
20CIN7.1236
21KC7.0974
22DET7.0924
23CLE7.0654
24ATL6.7873
25OAK6.3478
26SD6.1342
27STL6.0664
28SF5.9218
29CHI5.2842
30NYJ4.9917
31BUF3.6334
32NO3.3927

Read More......

The Value of Home Field Advantage, Week 3

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

All Games
Home Team Win %: 62.5000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.7917

Interconference
Home Team Win %: 71.4286%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.5714

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 66.6667%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 6.4667

Intradivsion
Home Team Win %: 52.6316%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 0.0526

Read More......

Thursday, September 20, 2007

How to Calculate Probability of Winning Based on In-Game Stats

A reader e-mailed me asking how to calculate the P(win | in-game performance) I've been posting each week and thought I would share with the rest of the class. It's a simple logistic regression model that calculates ln(p / 1-p), so any of you can try it at home.

Below is the set of weights, B, a Nx1 matrix. Take your matrix of inputs X, where X is an MxN matrix of M games with N inputs.

P(win) = e(B*X) / ( e(B*X) + 1 )

Bias coeffiecient 0.25522 (Bias input is an input always equal to 1)
Home rush off YPC 0.36376
Away rush off YPC -0.28054
Home pass off YPA (includes sacks as pass atts) 0.60824
Away pass off YPA - 0.64551
Home sack rate allowed -0.0091494
Away sack rate allowed 0.0098494
Home third down off. conversion rate 0.037002
Away third down off. conversion rate -0.042268
Home penalty yards -0.016932
Away penalty yards 0.016868
Home int. rate thrown -0.25664
Away int. rate thrown 0.27914
Home fum. rate given (includes all fumbles not just lost fumbles, rate is by completions and rush attempts) - 0.26644
Away fum. rate given 0.28195

Read More......

Wednesday, September 19, 2007

The Value of Homefield Advantage, 2007 Week 2

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

All Games
Home Team Win %: 62.5000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.3438

Interconference
Home Team Win %: 62.5000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.0000

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 70.0000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 7.2000

Intradivsion
Home Team Win %: 57.1429%
Avg. Final Score Margin: -0.9286

Read More......

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Projected Final Standings - Week 2, 2007

Using the projected win probabilities from the logistic regression power rankings, I estimated which games each team would win on the rest of their respective schedules. And then I summed the projected wins with the actual wins so far to get their projected win totals. The teams are sorted by division.



















































Projected Final Standings
TeamProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF2
MIA5
NE16
NYJ2
AFC North
BAL9
CIN6
CLE8
PIT14
AFC South
HOU15
IND14
JAX8
TEN6
AFC West
DEN14
KC7
OAK3
SD3
NFC East
DAL14
NYG3
PHI9
WAS11
NFC North
CHI5
DET10
GB8
MIN10
NFC South
ATL4
CAR9
NO0
TB12
NFC West
ARI11
STL4
SF3
SEA11

Read More......

Week 3 Predictions

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.



















GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
BUF @ NE21.852995.4819
MIA @ NYJ0.222754.6927
ARI @ BAL-1.132551.1005
SF @ PIT14.119787.2559
IND @ HOU3.361158.3286
JAX @ DEN14.430885.0911
MIN @ KC1.192453.7913
CLE @ OAK2.460648.9627
DET @ PHI3.192661.5361
NYG @ WAS10.273978.4863
DAL @ CHI-5.219232.4093
SD @ GB4.575669.4519
CAR @ ATL-4.773130.4124
TEN @ NO-10.060819.3533
STL @ TB4.061767.3059
CIN @ SEA4.190062.2327

Read More......

Power Rankings 2007, Week 2

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The first power rankings use linear regression to predict the final score margins of each such game. The score you see along with the rankings is the sum of all of those expected margins.

The second power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).




































Power Rankings, Linear Regression
RankTeamExpected Point Differential
1NE11.0563
2DEN10.2278
3PIT8.9073
4HOU7.0583
5IND6.3842
6DAL6.0052
7TB3.3885
8WAS2.8176
9CAR2.5193
10DET2.2201
11ARI1.9209
12MIN1.8642
13JAX1.2880
14SEA1.2395
15PHI1.1398
16BAL0.0029
17TEN-0.8355
18GB-1.1397
19CLE-1.2982
20CIN-1.9019
21STL-1.9600
22KC-3.1525
23CHI-3.2782
24SD-3.2908
25NYG-3.9060
26SF-3.9773
27MIA-4.1056
28ATL-4.2476
29OAK-6.6433
30NYJ-6.7256
31BUF-8.5525
32NO-13.0250




































Power Rankings, Logistic Regression
RankTeamExpected Wins
1NE12.7821
2DEN12.3057
3PIT11.9186
4IND11.2294
5HOU11.0758
6DAL10.9747
7TB9.6725
8CAR9.4341
9DET9.1868
10WAS9.1101
11ARI9.0378
12MIN9.0016
13JAX8.8980
14PHI8.7440
15SEA8.4853
16BAL8.2007
17TEN7.4589
18CLE7.3766
19GB7.2951
20CIN6.8305
21KC6.8023
22CHI6.7402
23STL6.7007
24NYG6.2975
25SF6.2020
26MIA6.0230
27SD5.9910
28ATL5.5020
29OAK5.1785
30NYJ4.9122
31BUF4.2329
32NO2.3994

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