Monday, November 26, 2007

Predictions 2007 Week 13 and Accuracy Report

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Quick Summary of Accuracy
LAST WEEK
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 12 out of 16
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 12 out of 16
Linear regression, unadjusted: 12 out of 16
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 10 out of 16

YEAR SO FAR
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 67.3611%
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 65.9722%
Linear regression, unadjusted: 63.8889%
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 62.5000%

Full accuracy numbers after the jump...





















Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
NYJ @ MIA6.961073.5104
NE @ BAL-7.667427.6416
CIN @ PIT9.142577.4754
JAX @ IND8.622877.0392
HOU @ TEN4.113663.4817
SD @ KC0.427952.3628
DEN @ OAK-0.039844.1519
GB @ DAL6.737771.4024
SEA @ PHI2.994462.0521
BUF @ WAS5.875570.7703
NYG @ CHI-1.195045.3762
DET @ MIN5.704767.4535
SF @ CAR4.346764.5604
TB @ NO-2.520341.0657
CLE @ ARI2.627360.2216
ATL @ STL0.957153.7558





















Predictions based on unadjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
NYJ @ MIA6.023870.8583
NE @ BAL-6.127132.5650
CIN @ PIT10.281580.7850
JAX @ IND7.237074.1194
HOU @ TEN3.782862.2564
SD @ KC1.334654.0065
DEN @ OAK1.026146.2019
GB @ DAL6.413371.2740
SEA @ PHI1.201955.2600
BUF @ WAS6.621872.0127
NYG @ CHI-1.723741.8105
DET @ MIN5.435965.9035
SF @ CAR4.134965.0194
TB @ NO-2.370842.1331
CLE @ ARI3.281262.7295
ATL @ STL1.145555.5421



OPPONENT-ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 67.3611%
Mean absolute error: 11.3790 points
Correlation with result: 0.3939
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.2222%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 65.9722%
Correlation with result: 0.3910
% of games predicted as home team wins: 75.0000%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 78.5714
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 70.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 50.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 70.5882
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 65.3846
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 87.5000


UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 63.8889%
Mean absolute error: 11.3918 points
Correlation with result: 0.3834
% of games predicted as home team wins: 70.1389%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 62.5000%
Correlation with result: 0.3780
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.5278%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 66.6667
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 64.2857
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 61.9048
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 46.8750
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 58.8235
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 80.7692
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000

Read More......

The Value of Homefield Advantage 2007 Week 12

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

I am completely baffled about the divisional games.

All Games
Home Team Win %: 55.1136%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 1.6932

Interconference
Home Team Win %: 62.5000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 4.3750

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 69.8413%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 4.6032

Intradivsion
Home Team Win %: 35.3846%
Avg. Final Score Margin: -3.1077

Read More......

Power Rankings 2007 Week 12

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).




































Power Rankings, Opponent-adjusted
RankTeamExpected Wins
1NE11.2441
2DAL11.1332
3IND10.6209
4PIT9.9642
5TB9.9244
6GB9.3945
7MIN9.3234
8PHI9.0560
9WAS8.8586
10NYG8.7037
11SEA8.4958
12SD8.4589
13JAX8.3526
14TEN8.1060
15DEN8.0833
16CLE7.7783
17DET7.6137
18ARI7.6130
19MIA7.6014
20HOU7.5289
21CIN7.2008
22ATL7.1665
23NO6.9120
24KC6.9006
25CAR6.8935
26BUF6.8154
27BAL6.5092
28CHI6.4680
29STL6.2714
30NYJ5.7587
31SF5.6797
32OAK5.5694




































Power Rankings, Unadjusted
RankTeamExpected Wins
1NE11.3002
2DAL11.2019
3PIT10.7758
4IND10.3835
5TB9.9057
6MIN9.4825
7GB9.4620
8SEA9.0465
9PHI8.5803
10JAX8.4789
11NYG8.4063
12WAS8.2131
13SD8.1418
14DEN8.1411
15TEN8.0375
16ARI7.9962
17DET7.9144
18HOU7.8943
19CLE7.6587
20CIN7.2868
21BAL7.2055
22NO7.1142
23ATL7.0253
24KC6.9362
25CAR6.9291
26MIA6.8095
27STL6.3635
28BUF6.2475
29OAK5.9599
30CHI5.8376
31SF5.7099
32NYJ5.5542

Read More......

Projected Final Standings 2007 Week 12

Using the projected win probabilities from the logistic regression power rankings, I estimated which games each team would win on the rest of their respective schedules. And then I summed the projected wins with the actual wins so far to get their projected win totals. The teams are sorted by division.



















































Projected Final Standings
TeamProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF6
MIA3
NE16
NYJ3
AFC North
BAL4
CIN7
CLE10
PIT12
AFC South
HOU7
IND14
JAX10
TEN9
AFC West
DEN8
KC6
OAK3
SD9
NFC East
DAL15
NYG10
PHI9
WAS7
NFC North
CHI6
DET7
GB14
MIN9
NFC South
ATL4
CAR5
NO6
TB12
NFC West
ARI8
STL3
SF3
SEA11

Read More......

Stats (Raw and VOLA) 2007 Week 12

This is the data I use to make my predictions and power rankings. Below are the tables for the raw stats and the values over league average for all of the inputs I use. Rush and pass stats are yards per play. See for yourself where your team's strengths and weaknesses are.





































Rush offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0045)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1MIN40.40305.6224
2DEN13.53904.5467
3PHI12.11504.4896
4DAL10.45004.4230
5NYG9.15164.3710
6MIA7.75944.3152
7OAK7.01224.2853
8SF6.40234.2609
9PIT5.21974.2135
10JAX5.21434.2133
11NE2.74614.1145
12CLE2.64344.1103
13CAR2.60764.1089
14TB2.56344.1071
15IND1.98764.0841
16WAS0.40054.0205
17TEN-0.93093.9672
18BAL-1.20583.9562
19DET-1.52983.9432
20SD-3.20233.8763
21BUF-6.73223.7349
22ATL-6.91463.7276
23NYJ-8.55103.6621
24SEA-9.60493.6199
25GB-10.45903.5857
26HOU-10.95403.5658
27CIN-11.39803.5481
28STL-12.42203.5071
29NO-12.96503.4853
30ARI-13.22703.4748
31KC-17.43403.3063
32CHI-18.66803.2569




































Rush defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0045)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1BAL30.48102.7839
2MIN26.16602.9567
3DAL10.16103.5976
4CAR9.41263.6276
5PHI9.14463.6383
6NO8.92583.6471
7PIT8.72323.6552
8DET7.32243.7113
9TB7.29163.7125
10SF5.67733.7771
11WAS4.22943.8351
12NYG4.19683.8364
13IND3.84953.8503
14TEN3.47383.8654
15SEA2.40643.9081
16KC0.85633.9702
17ARI0.82063.9716
18GB0.74323.9747
19STL0.02894.0033
20NE-1.82534.0776
21JAX-2.21734.0933
22SD-6.19394.2525
23ATL-6.64134.2704
24MIA-7.59694.3087
25NYJ-8.82524.3579
26BUF-9.26274.3754
27CIN-9.64514.3907
28CHI-10.36504.4196
29HOU-10.39804.4209
30CLE-14.91904.6019
31DEN-16.15204.6513
32OAK-24.12504.9706




































Pass offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.1282)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE34.81108.2615
2DAL29.26107.9214
3GB21.79107.4636
4HOU16.92507.1654
5DEN12.49606.8940
6CIN12.15306.8730
7IND12.13006.8716
8CLE11.47106.8312
9ARI7.77826.6049
10TB7.67886.5988
11PIT6.14126.5046
12JAX5.51966.4665
13SD4.88096.4273
14SEA4.54896.4070
15NO3.68786.3542
16PHI1.43506.2162
17DET0.11986.1356
18WAS-3.75825.8979
19CHI-6.44895.7330
20BUF-6.78365.7125
21MIN-8.25095.6226
22NYG-8.65975.5975
23TEN-8.75925.5914
24KC-10.50005.4848
25OAK-10.94105.4577
26MIA-11.87405.4005
27NYJ-12.53905.3598
28ATL-14.88205.2162
29CAR-17.64905.0466
30STL-18.22405.0114
31BAL-20.18604.8912
32SF-34.68704.0025




































Pass defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.1282)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1PIT27.39404.4495
2IND19.93904.9063
3TB13.40205.3069
4SEA10.55605.4813
5DAL10.45705.4874
6TEN10.14905.5063
7NE9.85275.5244
8WAS8.67395.5967
9ARI7.93115.6422
10GB5.75385.7756
11NYG3.68625.9023
12KC2.39925.9812
13SD-0.12386.1358
14SF-1.09086.1951
15HOU-2.03076.2527
16PHI-2.55826.2850
17ATL-2.56356.2853
18CAR-3.59716.3487
19STL-3.95486.3706
20DET-4.09746.3793
21MIN-4.69026.4156
22JAX-5.32866.4548
23CHI-5.45856.4627
24CLE-6.32066.5156
25BAL-7.95676.6158
26DEN-7.99796.6183
27MIA-8.92106.6749
28OAK-9.88886.7342
29BUF-11.59806.8390
30CIN-14.87007.0395
31NYJ-17.69807.2128
32NO-18.11907.2386




































Sack rate made, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.1215%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NYG55.38109.5116
2PIT39.02908.5106
3CHI38.58308.4833
4SEA33.58808.1775
5NE30.18407.9692
6GB23.51607.5610
7KC18.56707.2580
8DAL12.66206.8966
9PHI12.23206.8702
10DEN11.16206.8047
11OAK8.54466.6445
12ARI8.39026.6351
13BAL6.13766.4972
14DET-1.42096.0345
15MIA-1.86886.0071
16TEN-2.22875.9850
17WAS-2.53015.9666
18JAX-2.76225.9524
19SD-3.19435.9259
20SF-3.19435.9259
21NYJ-5.65865.7751
22STL-6.52455.7221
23TB-8.08415.6266
24IND-9.99475.5096
25MIN-12.60605.3498
26NO-16.78705.0939
27ATL-16.93605.0847
28CIN-22.61904.7369
29HOU-30.48504.2553
30CLE-31.02604.2222
31CAR-55.84902.7027
32BUF-60.73102.4038




































Sack rate allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.1215%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NO75.30201.5119
2NE48.57903.1477
3GB48.02203.1818
4CIN43.40903.4642
5SD38.26503.7791
6IND34.16204.0303
7HOU33.49204.0713
8CLE33.15204.0921
9ARI32.26604.1463
10WAS27.30104.4502
11DAL24.73904.6071
12NYG23.36204.6914
13MIA16.56405.1075
14DEN11.21805.4348
15SEA8.82265.5814
16TEN6.65175.7143
17TB5.65865.7751
18BAL-0.01616.1224
19CAR-1.57076.2176
20JAX-14.55107.0122
21BUF-17.41507.1875
22NYJ-25.32907.6720
23CHI-26.88107.7670
24PHI-31.92908.0760
25ATL-36.46708.3538
26KC-40.97008.6294
27STL-45.12608.8838
28SF-50.73109.2269
29MIN-58.09009.6774
30OAK-61.93109.9125
31DET-63.360010.0000
32PIT-73.787010.6383




































Third down % converted, Unadjusted (League Avg = 40.1875%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE33.375053.6001
2PIT22.069049.0565
3NO21.945049.0067
4DAL21.732048.9211
5IND19.233047.9168
6CIN18.326047.5523
7PHI12.376045.1611
8DEN9.779544.1177
9HOU6.120242.6471
10JAX5.954942.5806
11NYG5.922442.5676
12GB5.886642.5532
13CLE4.582242.0290
14TEN1.871440.9396
15NYJ1.192340.6667
16WAS-0.466640.0000
17TB-1.919639.4161
18SD-3.028138.9706
19ATL-4.857838.2353
20OAK-4.904438.2166
21MIA-6.236637.6812
22BUF-6.453637.5940
23STL-8.074236.9427
24BAL-8.812636.6459
25SEA-9.209436.4865
26ARI-10.630035.9156
27CHI-11.353035.6250
28CAR-13.983034.5681
29KC-14.362034.4158
30DET-24.020030.5345
31MIN-24.268030.4348
32SF-31.986027.3331




































Third down % allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 40.1875%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1GB21.144031.6903
2ATL19.550032.3309
3CHI18.651032.6921
4KC14.783034.2466
5NE14.336034.4262
6BAL10.796035.8489
7STL10.195036.0904
8SEA9.230536.4780
9OAK7.965736.9863
10PIT5.373238.0282
11DAL4.165538.5135
12NYG3.620838.7324
13JAX1.540739.5683
14WAS0.802939.8649
15SF0.466640.0000
16TB-1.724440.8805
17CIN-1.795540.9091
18CLE-1.871440.9396
19PHI-3.818041.7219
20TEN-4.349541.9355
21HOU-5.620042.4461
22SD-5.886642.5532
23NO-7.885943.3567
24MIN-8.124143.4524
25DET-8.335743.5374
26ARI-8.667843.6709
27IND-9.077743.8356
28DEN-9.830044.1379
29CAR-10.945044.5860
30NYJ-12.611045.2556
31MIA-15.268046.3233
32BUF-22.758049.3334




































Int. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.9563%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE59.04801.2107
2TB58.87401.2158
3JAX48.43601.5244
4GB46.18601.5909
5BAL30.96702.0408
6SEA29.20102.0930
7ATL25.20002.2113
8PHI19.65302.3753
9MIN12.70702.5806
10WAS11.45002.6178
11SF7.21022.7431
12MIA-0.02342.9570
13DEN-1.11062.9891
14IND-2.24513.0227
15PIT-2.81493.0395
16CLE-3.81413.0691
17CAR-5.15883.1088
18DET-5.23673.1111
19NO-9.58783.2397
20KC-11.60903.2995
21BUF-16.27703.4375
22NYJ-16.33303.4392
23CIN-17.18003.4642
24SD-17.99803.4884
25DAL-19.17003.5230
26ARI-23.75403.6585
27NYG-25.28203.7037
28TEN-25.64003.7143
29HOU-29.10703.8168
30OAK-38.06604.0816
31STL-38.69504.1002
32CHI-39.57404.1262




































Int. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.9563%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1OAK46.09304.3189
2SD41.98604.1975
3IND39.77704.1322
4NE39.13004.1131
5DAL24.41803.6782
6DEN20.09303.5503
7TEN18.09603.4913
8BAL14.66503.3898
9ATL14.66503.3898
10JAX12.75403.3333
11TB12.46503.3248
12DET9.35163.2328
13KC9.11643.2258
14MIA7.57413.1802
15CIN6.81923.1579
16GB-0.99682.9268
17BUF-2.42472.8846
18ARI-3.81212.8436
19NYG-4.34782.8278
20NYJ-7.46662.7356
21STL-7.83082.7248
22MIN-9.51872.6749
23CLE-9.79712.6667
24HOU-10.03702.6596
25SEA-13.06402.5701
26NO-18.38202.4129
27CAR-26.86302.1621
28WAS-27.34302.1480
29PIT-28.03002.1276
30SF-33.18301.9753
31CHI-47.82601.5424
32PHI-48.35701.5267




































Fum. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0916%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE48.98101.5773
2IND39.69301.8644
3ATL34.59402.0221
4NYJ32.22702.0952
5JAX31.78302.1090
6SEA31.66302.1127
7BUF30.64202.1442
8DAL30.06202.1622
9PIT29.80002.1703
10SD24.63002.3301
11NYG23.68402.3593
12MIA22.21302.4048
13CIN21.65302.4221
14TB19.59802.4857
15PHI18.99002.5045
16NO11.68302.7304
17STL7.74702.8520
18KC3.98152.9685
19CLE0.85453.0651
20GB-4.34273.2258
21MIN-11.11303.4351
22CAR-22.06103.7736
23ARI-22.52403.7879
24HOU-24.18103.8391
25TEN-32.25004.0886
26DEN-37.01004.2357
27BAL-44.92004.4803
28WAS-51.36004.6794
29CHI-55.74104.8148
30SF-57.09004.8565
31OAK-57.92904.8825
32DET-62.93805.0373




































Fum. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0916%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1DET78.24505.5105
2PIT42.80904.4150
3SEA40.63604.3478
4NYG24.88903.8610
5DEN20.01203.7102
6DAL18.64403.6679
7WAS18.26803.6563
8IND15.52203.5714
9TEN12.83603.4884
10HOU12.76703.4862
11CHI11.15503.4364
12STL10.69103.4221
13SD9.55053.3868
14MIN9.46273.3841
15TB8.77493.3628
16NE8.27193.3473
17CAR6.51273.2929
18NO-1.79513.0361
19ATL-3.98152.9685
20GB-6.87272.8791
21CIN-7.25102.8674
22MIA-12.57802.7027
23ARI-13.35802.6786
24KC-15.51402.6119
25OAK-20.36002.4621
26JAX-21.69402.4209
27SF-32.50402.0867
28BUF-32.61202.0833
29CLE-34.65402.0202
30PHI-38.85401.8904
31BAL-39.42701.8726
32NYJ-57.08601.3267




































Rush offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0045)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1MIN35.93205.4434
2PHI13.92404.5621
3NYG12.35004.4990
4DAL12.34604.4989
5SF10.98104.4442
6DEN10.31304.4175
7CLE6.26734.2555
8TB5.43984.2223
9CAR3.23134.1339
10MIA3.08404.1280
11JAX2.45914.1030
12OAK2.07734.0877
13WAS1.96244.0831
14PIT1.69924.0725
15IND1.06704.0472
16ATL-0.16073.9981
17NE-1.84513.9306
18DET-3.58883.8608
19GB-4.44703.8264
20TEN-4.45303.8262
21NYJ-4.82463.8113
22SD-5.98563.7648
23STL-6.05083.7622
24BUF-6.11013.7598
25BAL-6.36083.7498
26ARI-6.86823.7295
27CIN-8.14263.6784
28SEA-9.25463.6339
29NO-10.11503.5994
30HOU-14.23003.4347
31CHI-16.67703.3367
32KC-24.13403.0380




































Rush defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0045)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1BAL27.37702.9082
2MIN23.52503.0624
3DAL13.47303.4650
4PHI10.76303.5735
5NYG9.95783.6057
6DET9.27653.6330
7GB6.72593.7352
8NO6.35533.7500
9WAS6.15323.7581
10PIT5.58383.7809
11TEN4.01863.8436
12TB3.64813.8584
13IND2.98283.8850
14CAR2.83533.8910
15KC1.95963.9260
16ARI-0.17484.0115
17SD-0.51964.0253
18STL-0.52294.0254
19SF-0.70654.0328
20NE-1.32464.0575
21ATL-2.24554.0944
22CHI-3.01454.1252
23MIA-3.84664.1585
24SEA-3.98974.1643
25JAX-5.19254.2124
26BUF-5.84764.2387
27NYJ-6.93844.2823
28HOU-9.95134.4030
29CIN-13.68604.5525
30CLE-15.73204.6345
31DEN-19.04604.7672
32OAK-24.98605.0051




































Pass offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.1282)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE32.18008.1003
2DAL27.01607.7838
3GB19.43307.3191
4DEN15.65407.0875
5CIN15.57307.0826
6HOU15.33807.0682
7CLE13.68206.9667
8IND12.45206.8913
9ARI11.35606.8241
10TB9.75116.7258
11NO6.27666.5129
12JAX4.25606.3890
13SD3.54396.3454
14SEA2.90666.3063
15PHI2.70306.2939
16PIT0.75966.1748
17WAS-0.30496.1095
18DET-0.52986.0957
19CHI-6.87925.7066
20NYG-7.49585.6689
21MIN-8.55045.6042
22BUF-9.72305.5324
23TEN-10.37005.4927
24MIA-10.65105.4755
25NYJ-12.21105.3799
26OAK-12.34105.3719
27KC-12.90105.3376
28ATL-14.58805.2342
29CAR-15.76205.1623
30STL-17.99605.0254
31BAL-24.06504.6535
32SF-31.45504.2006




































Pass defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.1282)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1PIT24.75404.6112
2IND21.52104.8094
3TEN14.63605.2313
4WAS13.95605.2730
5NE12.06005.3892
6TB10.74005.4700
7SEA8.57515.6027
8DAL7.75015.6533
9KC7.46275.6709
10SD4.80055.8340
11NYG3.51155.9130
12PHI1.74966.0210
13GB1.38986.0430
14MIA0.48596.0984
15CHI0.28456.1108
16ARI-2.58326.2865
17MIN-2.74536.2965
18BUF-3.20136.3244
19DET-3.24146.3269
20CAR-3.50446.3430
21JAX-3.66926.3531
22SF-5.23646.4491
23DEN-6.19156.5076
24HOU-6.24976.5112
25ATL-6.57526.5312
26STL-8.13236.6266
27BAL-8.31446.6377
28CLE-9.39586.7040
29OAK-10.26406.7572
30NYJ-17.38807.1938
31CIN-18.43307.2578
32NO-25.20407.6728




































Sack rate made, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.1215%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE53.97909.4258
2PIT53.76509.4127
3NYG30.31707.9773
4KC28.54707.8690
5CHI24.10007.5967
6PHI19.74307.3300
7IND19.67207.3257
8DAL16.37107.1236
9GB11.88806.8492
10TB10.35106.7551
11TEN10.20106.7459
12JAX8.42776.6374
13STL7.40846.5750
14SEA7.06746.5541
15BAL5.69566.4701
16SD2.95826.3026
17MIA2.91296.2998
18WAS1.48026.2121
19OAK-5.99285.7546
20DET-8.21285.6187
21ARI-9.04245.5679
22ATL-9.15825.5608
23SF-10.74005.4640
24DEN-13.47105.2968
25NYJ-14.67505.2231
26HOU-17.49005.0508
27MIN-20.09104.8916
28CIN-25.15004.5819
29NO-25.61704.5533
30CLE-34.75903.9937
31CAR-51.53202.9670
32BUF-61.08602.3821




































Sack rate allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.1215%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NO72.31501.6947
2CIN47.69903.2016
3GB47.28203.2271
4SD44.26403.4119
5NE43.77103.4420
6CLE41.41203.5864
7WAS36.33803.8970
8IND32.46004.1344
9DAL32.00304.1624
10HOU27.26304.4526
11NYG24.95404.5939
12ARI20.00504.8969
13MIA14.63405.2257
14DEN12.05905.3833
15TB10.26005.4934
16SEA5.74305.7699
17BUF-2.50186.2746
18PHI-10.73506.7786
19CAR-12.68606.8980
20BAL-13.69306.9597
21CHI-16.04607.1037
22TEN-16.85007.1529
23JAX-28.76507.8823
24MIN-32.96808.1396
25SF-33.21008.1544
26NYJ-40.94908.6281
27KC-42.76908.7396
28STL-43.32708.7737
29DET-44.50908.8461
30ATL-58.81709.7219
31OAK-62.63409.9556
32PIT-88.832011.5593




































Third down % converted, Adjusted (League Avg = 40.1875%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE25.323050.3642
2DAL20.611048.4706
3NO20.308048.3488
4IND18.043047.4385
5CIN17.688047.2959
6PIT17.426047.1906
7PHI16.982047.0122
8DEN10.919044.5756
9CLE9.300143.9250
10NYG8.631943.6565
11HOU7.403743.1629
12GB5.686942.4729
13SD5.291042.3138
14JAX3.215141.4796
15TEN0.536540.4031
16NYJ0.154940.2498
17WAS-2.832239.0493
18TB-4.248738.4801
19BUF-5.378538.0260
20SEA-6.866637.4280
21OAK-7.629537.1214
22MIA-7.777737.0618
23STL-8.314036.8463
24ARI-8.901336.6103
25ATL-9.444836.3919
26CHI-10.983035.7737
27BAL-12.739035.0680
28CAR-12.883035.0102
29KC-13.070034.9350
30MIN-18.477032.7621
31DET-20.361032.0049
32SF-29.956028.1489




































Third down % allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 40.1875%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE17.656033.0920
2ATL17.027033.3448
3KC15.511033.9540
4GB14.791034.2434
5CHI13.158034.8996
6BAL11.727035.4747
7SEA10.929035.7954
8DAL7.604537.1315
9WAS6.712737.4898
10STL4.755238.2765
11TEN2.850539.0420
12JAX2.707939.0993
13OAK2.385139.2290
14PIT1.248239.6859
15NYG1.130439.7332
16CLE-0.066440.2142
17TB-0.727540.4799
18CIN-0.868340.5365
19SF-1.550740.8107
20PHI-2.101541.0321
21HOU-4.507041.9988
22SD-5.534042.4115
23NYJ-5.613242.4433
24CAR-5.790442.5145
25IND-7.365543.1475
26MIA-8.734543.6977
27MIN-9.058943.8281
28BUF-10.459044.3907
29DEN-11.382044.7617
30DET-15.244046.3137
31ARI-17.881047.3734
32NO-19.060047.8473




































Int. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.9563%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE67.23100.9687
2TB65.28901.0262
3JAX47.33701.5569
4PHI30.55402.0530
5ATL28.44402.1154
6GB27.08902.1555
7BAL26.78802.1644
8MIN21.05802.3338
9IND20.28402.3566
10SEA15.36602.5020
11MIA11.68702.6108
12WAS9.44202.6772
13SF3.50492.8527
14CLE2.70562.8763
15PIT0.30402.9473
16BUF-3.03173.0459
17DEN-3.19693.0508
18KC-5.79223.1275
19HOU-6.92653.1611
20CAR-6.93623.1614
21SD-10.04803.2533
22NO-10.12903.2557
23CIN-16.39103.4409
24DET-17.25903.4665
25TEN-23.00603.6364
26NYJ-25.69103.7158
27CHI-26.46203.7386
28OAK-36.64004.0395
29STL-37.23504.0571
30DAL-40.52004.1542
31NYG-40.75504.1611
32ARI-55.55104.5986




































Int. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.9563%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1IND94.54105.7512
2OAK38.94704.1077
3CIN38.08704.0823
4SD36.59404.0381
5NE36.44804.0338
6JAX34.78103.9845
7MIA31.97603.9016
8DAL13.54803.3568
9TEN10.54703.2681
10KC9.27133.2304
11NO7.28353.1716
12ATL7.06203.1651
13TB6.83313.1583
14DEN-0.17892.9510
15STL-1.29452.9180
16BAL-2.90672.8704
17NYG-3.29182.8590
18GB-3.70892.8467
19CLE-4.48082.8238
20DET-6.37182.7679
21NYJ-12.02102.6009
22BUF-15.03602.5118
23ARI-15.42202.5004
24MIN-18.41402.4119
25HOU-21.69802.3148
26PIT-21.70602.3146
27WAS-21.94502.3075
28SEA-26.98502.1585
29SF-31.57802.0228
30CAR-38.25801.8253
31PHI-44.61501.6373
32CHI-46.48601.5820




































Fum. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0916%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE41.78301.7998
2IND39.36501.8746
3ATL37.98801.9171
4JAX35.90201.9816
5TB33.48602.0563
6PHI32.31902.0924
7MIA31.41602.1203
8SD27.39702.2446
9BUF23.57702.3627
10NYG22.71402.3893
11DAL22.02802.4105
12NYJ21.73302.4197
13SEA21.14602.4378
14NO15.54402.6110
15KC8.55162.8272
16CIN5.87912.9098
17PIT4.98742.9374
18STL4.85442.9415
19GB3.58672.9807
20CLE1.47343.0460
21MIN-11.47403.4463
22CAR-15.93403.5842
23ARI-19.21403.6856
24DEN-27.00503.9264
25HOU-29.15003.9927
26TEN-31.48904.0650
27CHI-36.05904.2063
28SF-44.42404.4649
29OAK-49.92204.6349
30WAS-56.70304.8446
31DET-62.20705.0147
32BAL-62.85105.0346




































Fum. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0916%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1DET48.33104.5857
2DAL46.14804.5182
3SEA38.53604.2829
4PIT37.70904.2573
5NE35.28204.1823
6WAS26.19603.9014
7HOU22.29903.7809
8NYG22.22003.7785
9CAR15.54703.5722
10IND14.42803.5376
11TB13.74103.5164
12TEN11.60803.4504
13MIN7.70743.3298
14STL5.31023.2557
15DEN3.85723.2108
16SD1.60133.1411
17NO1.36223.1337
18ATL-2.06163.0278
19MIA-3.51672.9828
20CHI-4.77962.9438
21BUF-9.82072.7879
22GB-12.29002.7116
23ARI-14.47002.6442
24CIN-18.93802.5061
25KC-20.27102.4649
26SF-24.47002.3350
27JAX-24.70102.3279
28BAL-32.55202.0852
29OAK-34.03602.0393
30CLE-35.80801.9845
31NYJ-44.52501.7150
32PHI-54.93601.3932

Read More......

Sunday, November 25, 2007

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 12

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in.


















Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
DETGB20.3024-11
DALNYJ98.738831
ATLIND33.2753-18
TBWAS37.08826
CHIDEN8.73713
ARISF34.2316-6
CINTEN95.882829
CLEHOU64.575610
JAXBUF97.919822
NYGMIN3.0502-24
CARNO0.3645-25
KCOAK12.7736-3
STLSEA19.8848-5
NEPHI86.13183
PITMIA76.62043


Teams that "should" have won but didn't
Washington Redskins (@ Bucs), Win Prob = 62.9118% Tampa Bay managed less than 4 yards per pass and gave up 3 sacks. Since they threw the ball 23 times, this resulted in a very high sack rate. Tampa Bay also recovered their only fumble.
Denver Broncos (@ Bears), Win Prob = 91.2629% Denver averaged 8.85 yards per pass play, while Chicago managed only 4.75 yards per pass play. Hester is the only reason Chicago has won in at least 3 of their wins this season by my count.




















































TeamActual WinsExpected WinsProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF5.03.92455.7084
MIA0.04.15266.0402
NE11.09.724314.1444
NYJ2.03.25304.7316
AFC North
BAL4.04.11375.9836
CIN4.04.89547.1205
CLE7.05.10987.4325
PIT8.08.243911.9911
AFC South
HOU5.05.12957.4611
IND9.09.108413.2485
JAX8.07.285810.5975
TEN6.04.84967.0540
AFC West
DEN5.05.45297.9315
KC4.05.19527.5566
OAK3.03.52635.1292
SD6.05.43177.9007
NFC East
DAL10.09.202213.3850
NYG7.05.52368.0343
PHI5.06.01128.7436
WAS5.04.63546.7424
NFC North
CHI5.02.65943.8682
DET6.05.71498.3126
GB10.07.879411.4609
MIN5.05.23977.6214
NFC South
ATL3.05.34207.7701
CAR4.03.75115.4561
NO5.04.86877.0818
TB7.07.278910.5874
NFC West
ARI5.04.65126.7654
STL2.04.13076.0083
SF3.01.95492.8436
SEA7.07.760011.2872

Read More......

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Predictions 2007 Week 12

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.




















Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
PHI @ NE7.921974.1605
TEN @ CIN1.532154.2373
HOU @ CLE3.452560.7826
MIA @ PIT8.663275.3720
BUF @ JAX5.107666.4405
OAK @ KC7.121271.6851
BAL @ SD5.579369.3920
NYJ @ DAL15.223289.1438
MIN @ NYG3.081456.5293
DEN @ CHI0.678550.2349
GB @ DET-0.893349.3708
IND @ ATL-3.419938.2388
NO @ CAR4.242865.2461
WAS @ TB4.844866.3605
SF @ ARI7.237473.9324
SEA @ STL-1.624244.2316





















Predictions based on unadjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
PHI @ NE9.076176.8020
TEN @ CIN1.459754.4186
HOU @ CLE2.604857.8192
MIA @ PIT11.814782.5801
BUF @ JAX6.686870.7531
OAK @ KC6.887470.2740
BAL @ SD3.791863.5789
NYJ @ DAL14.892688.9950
MIN @ NYG2.407853.0317
DEN @ CHI0.449947.0168
GB @ DET-0.196650.7409
IND @ ATL-2.587540.8327
NO @ CAR3.286164.0675
WAS @ TB5.998970.2880
SF @ ARI6.777173.0667
SEA @ STL-2.044243.2337

Read More......

The Value of Homefield Advantage 2007 Week 11

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

All Games
Home Team Win %: 55.0000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 1.6563

Interconference
Home Team Win %: 61.3636%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 4.3409

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 67.8571%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 4.0357

Intradivsion
Home Team Win %: 38.3333%
Avg. Final Score Margin: -2.5333

Read More......

Power Rankings 2007 Week 11

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).




































Power Rankings, Opponent-adjusted
RankTeamExpected Wins
1NE11.4795
2DAL11.3244
3IND10.7248
4TB10.2407
5PIT9.8901
6MIN9.1499
7GB9.0889
8NYG8.8950
9PHI8.8749
10WAS8.7871
11SEA8.3319
12TEN8.3209
13JAX8.1216
14SD8.1022
15DEN7.9506
16ARI7.8998
17DET7.7828
18CLE7.7737
19MIA7.5919
20HOU7.5603
21CAR7.3835
22BUF7.1744
23ATL7.0890
24CIN7.0321
25KC6.9455
26BAL6.7021
27CHI6.5708
28NO6.4245
29STL6.1375
30NYJ5.8191
31SF5.5370
32OAK5.2937




































Power Rankings, Unadjusted
RankTeamExpected Wins
1NE11.6398
2DAL11.1056
3PIT10.8020
4IND10.3668
5TB10.1863
6MIN9.4168
7GB9.1591
8SEA8.8782
9PHI8.6894
10NYG8.6627
11DET8.3091
12TEN8.2302
13WAS8.1641
14JAX8.1178
15HOU8.0090
16ARI7.8899
17SD7.8145
18DEN7.7899
19CLE7.5595
20BAL7.4997
21CAR7.3289
22ATL7.1751
23CIN7.0558
24KC7.0239
25MIA6.8786
26NO6.5305
27BUF6.4760
28STL6.4508
29CHI5.9604
30NYJ5.6965
31OAK5.5697
32SF5.5634

Read More......

Projected Final Standings 2007 Week 11

Using the projected win probabilities from the logistic regression power rankings, I estimated which games each team would win on the rest of their respective schedules. And then I summed the projected wins with the actual wins so far to get their projected win totals. The teams are sorted by division.



















































Projected Final Standings
TeamProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF6
MIA3
NE16
NYJ3
AFC North
BAL4
CIN6
CLE10
PIT12
AFC South
HOU7
IND14
JAX10
TEN9
AFC West
DEN8
KC7
OAK2
SD9
NFC East
DAL15
NYG11
PHI9
WAS7
NFC North
CHI6
DET7
GB14
MIN8
NFC South
ATL4
CAR6
NO5
TB12
NFC West
ARI9
STL3
SF3
SEA11

Read More......

Stats (Raw and VOLA) 2007 Week 11

This is the data I use to make my predictions and power rankings. Below are the tables for the raw stats and the values over league average for all of the inputs I use. Rush and pass stats are yards per play. See for yourself where your team's strengths and weaknesses are.





































Rush offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0188)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1MIN47.55605.9300
2DEN15.99404.6616
3PHI14.49804.6015
4MIA12.31804.5138
5NYG9.45094.3986
6DAL7.88744.3358
7PIT7.63164.3255
8CAR4.94504.2175
9OAK4.33254.1929
10NE3.78414.1709
11JAX3.76574.1701
12TB2.52144.1201
13SF2.32374.1122
14CLE1.08104.0623
15IND0.99564.0588
16BAL0.70754.0472
17WAS0.41494.0355
18SD-0.46814.0000
19TEN-0.53963.9971
20DET-3.84423.8643
21ATL-7.26343.7269
22NYJ-7.31323.7249
23BUF-7.46083.7190
24NO-10.82703.5837
25SEA-11.58803.5531
26STL-12.27003.5257
27HOU-12.48403.5171
28CIN-13.77303.4653
29ARI-14.77103.4252
30GB-14.93003.4188
31CHI-20.68603.1875
32KC-21.92603.1376




































Rush defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0188)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1BAL30.68302.7857
2MIN28.24402.8837
3DET11.09203.5730
4DAL8.79853.6652
5PHI8.51303.6767
6TB8.04493.6955
7CAR7.38923.7219
8NO7.17093.7306
9SF6.42173.7607
10WAS4.87653.8228
11PIT4.87323.8230
12ARI4.82503.8249
13TEN4.80043.8259
14KC4.66083.8315
15IND3.86123.8636
16GB2.58363.9150
17NYG2.09093.9348
18STL1.35363.9644
19SEA1.06053.9762
20JAX-2.28544.1107
21NE-4.08794.1831
22ATL-6.03064.2612
23NYJ-6.57974.2832
24BUF-7.94694.3382
25SD-8.42514.3574
26HOU-9.80564.4129
27MIA-10.12504.4257
28CIN-10.83404.4542
29CHI-12.24004.5107
30CLE-15.00004.6216
31DEN-17.85804.7365
32OAK-25.31805.0363




































Pass offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.1428)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE39.47108.5674
2DAL32.59408.1450
3GB18.44207.2757
4HOU18.26507.2648
5IND11.88006.8726
6TB11.64406.8581
7CIN11.47506.8477
8CLE11.06506.8225
9DEN9.09506.7015
10PIT7.88336.6271
11SEA6.84546.5633
12SD3.36506.3495
13DET2.80766.3153
14ARI2.69126.3081
15JAX2.67136.3069
16NO2.25026.2810
17PHI-1.50436.0504
18WAS-3.55435.9245
19CHI-5.13905.8271
20BUF-5.18385.8244
21NYG-6.24475.7592
22KC-10.06605.5245
23MIA-10.13305.5204
24MIN-10.35405.5068
25NYJ-10.83905.4770
26TEN-12.30705.3868
27OAK-12.58205.3699
28ATL-13.82905.2933
29CAR-16.22505.1461
30STL-16.60005.1231
31BAL-19.28904.9579
32SF-37.96703.8106




































Pass defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.1428)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1PIT26.88404.4914
2IND19.19404.9638
3TB14.63005.2441
4NE14.45205.2550
5TEN13.20805.3315
6DAL8.87675.5975
7ARI8.15105.6421
8SEA8.08775.6460
9WAS6.71565.7303
10NYG5.20535.8231
11SF5.05345.8324
12GB3.43675.9317
13KC3.35395.9368
14DET0.74696.0969
15HOU-0.64386.1824
16ATL-1.25876.2201
17CHI-1.60786.2416
18CAR-1.81816.2545
19PHI-2.13266.2738
20SD-3.11646.3342
21CLE-6.48656.5413
22STL-6.66906.5525
23BAL-6.81006.5611
24JAX-7.72626.6174
25MIN-8.17796.6452
26BUF-9.94926.7540
27MIA-11.29406.8366
28DEN-11.36706.8411
29OAK-12.41506.9054
30CIN-13.72106.9857
31NYJ-20.34607.3926
32NO-23.45107.5834




































Sack rate made, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0531%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NYG46.16008.8472
2CHI43.85908.7079
3NE38.86808.4058
4PIT32.92408.0460
5SEA32.33508.0103
6GB21.87307.3771
7BAL19.11407.2101
8KC18.68207.1839
9PHI18.00407.1429
10DAL10.13706.6667
11DEN9.40756.6225
12DET9.35576.6194
13ARI8.68776.5789
14TEN4.96476.3536
15JAX4.61556.3325
16OAK2.12696.1818
17TB-2.82045.8824
18SF-6.13345.6818
19WAS-7.51875.5980
20IND-10.16005.4381
21SD-10.21505.4348
22NYJ-11.29905.3691
23NO-11.49705.3572
24MIN-12.44905.2995
25STL-18.41704.9383
26CIN-19.29604.8851
27MIA-22.86104.6693
28HOU-27.11504.4118
29ATL-27.26804.4025
30CLE-31.83304.1262
31CAR-50.53702.9940
32BUF-60.66502.3810




































Sack rate allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0531%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NO72.91701.6394
2NE53.59402.8090
3IND45.08403.3241
4GB42.03303.5088
5CIN41.29803.5533
6ARI39.84103.6415
7HOU34.84903.9436
8DAL31.57204.1420
9SD30.49604.2071
10CLE30.19504.2253
11MIA27.96304.3605
12WAS25.13404.5317
13NYG25.11904.5326
14SEA18.89104.9096
15TB12.76305.2805
16DEN11.23305.3731
17BAL5.94755.6931
18TEN1.29245.9748
19CAR-8.87456.5903
20NYJ-23.42907.4713
21JAX-25.32807.5862
22CHI-27.41907.7128
23BUF-30.26907.8853
24KC-39.16708.4239
25PHI-40.22708.4880
26ATL-40.97508.5333
27STL-45.28108.7940
28MIN-46.10008.8435
29SF-56.46209.4708
30PIT-63.57009.9010
31OAK-65.723010.0313
32DET-66.833010.0985




































Third down % converted, Unadjusted (League Avg = 40.5253%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE29.039052.2935
2PIT24.219050.3402
3DAL23.380050.0002
4IND22.466049.6297
5DEN17.410047.5808
6NO16.886047.3684
7HOU9.670844.4445
8GB8.647744.0298
9CLE8.574144.0000
10PHI7.740043.6620
11NYJ7.050043.3824
12CIN6.600043.2000
13NYG5.484942.7481
14TEN4.739542.4460
15TB4.625942.4000
16JAX1.189041.0072
17MIA-4.038138.8889
18OAK-4.317838.7755
19ATL-4.480338.7097
20WAS-5.378038.3459
21SD-6.190738.0165
22STL-6.584037.8571
23SEA-7.465337.5000
24ARI-9.393136.7187
25CHI-9.805236.5517
26BAL-10.570036.2418
27CAR-12.227035.5703
28KC-13.113035.2112
29BUF-13.529035.0427
30DET-25.547030.1723
31MIN-26.959029.6001
32SF-33.357027.0073




































Third down % allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 40.5253%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE23.029031.1928
2GB22.281031.4959
3ATL18.410033.0646
4KC14.723034.5588
5BAL14.320034.7221
6CHI14.320034.7221
7STL8.230037.1901
8TEN8.140737.2263
9SEA7.899737.3239
10JAX7.716037.3984
11OAK6.084238.0597
12NYG4.356938.7597
13PIT3.194439.2308
14PHI3.124139.2593
15TB2.686539.4366
16DAL-1.281841.0448
17SF-1.318441.0596
18CLE-4.739542.4460
19CAR-4.739542.4460
20CIN-5.176142.6230
21SD-5.207442.6356
22WAS-5.235642.6471
23MIN-7.855043.7086
24HOU-9.670844.4445
25ARI-10.616044.8275
26DET-11.042045.0001
27IND-11.136045.0382
28NO-11.991045.3847
29NYJ-13.588046.0319
30DEN-13.889046.1539
31MIA-17.410047.5808
32BUF-19.697048.5076




































Int. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.9555%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1TB55.33401.3201
2NE52.47901.4045
3JAX41.66401.7241
4GB40.64101.7544
5PHI37.17701.8568
6ATL36.84201.8667
7SEA30.05702.0672
8BAL24.62502.2277
9WAS18.22402.4169
10CAR12.74702.5788
11MIN7.93242.7211
12PIT-0.49952.9703
13DEN-0.99952.9851
14IND-3.09783.0471
15SF-3.67223.0641
16CLE-4.84033.0986
17NYG-5.43433.1161
18MIA-8.19283.1977
19DET-8.33813.2020
20BUF-9.14463.2258
21KC-10.33103.2609
22NO-10.93403.2787
23NYJ-16.67203.4483
24DAL-20.12403.5503
25CIN-20.22503.5533
26ARI-23.20803.6415
27HOU-23.90203.6620
28TEN-27.67903.7736
29SD-31.39703.8835
30STL-36.01904.0201
31CHI-43.97804.2553
32OAK-48.49104.3887




































Int. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.9555%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1SD56.30204.6196
2OAK47.64304.3636
3IND32.88603.9275
4NE27.49403.7681
5BAL27.27803.7617
6DAL25.31403.7037
7DEN23.23903.6424
8TEN21.50603.5912
9DET19.98203.5461
10ATL17.03903.4591
11KC16.67203.4483
12TB9.46563.2353
13BUF7.41223.1746
14JAX7.12883.1662
15CIN6.94923.1609
16ARI6.84683.1579
17MIA5.32243.1128
18GB1.68943.0055
19NYG-0.21902.9491
20STL-6.01432.7778
21NYJ-9.16822.6846
22HOU-10.43702.6471
23CLE-17.87702.4272
24SEA-21.31402.3256
25PIT-22.21902.2988
26WAS-22.51602.2901
27CAR-29.08902.0958
28MIN-29.83602.0737
29PHI-39.58101.7857
30NO-39.58101.7857
31SF-42.32701.7045
32CHI-52.47901.4045




































Fum. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0983%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1IND45.90701.6760
2NE44.44901.7212
3NYJ40.59801.8405
4SEA38.28801.9121
5JAX31.59402.1195
6BUF29.98802.1692
7MIA29.53002.1834
8PIT29.19502.1938
9ATL28.70902.2088
10DAL28.56602.2133
11PHI24.20702.3483
12STL23.00102.3857
13TB19.97902.4793
14CIN17.56802.5540
15NYG17.40602.5590
16SD15.80402.6087
17CLE2.61763.0172
18NO1.26103.0593
19KC0.58943.0801
20GB-1.25593.1373
21MIN-16.49303.6094
22CAR-17.84103.6511
23ARI-17.99603.6559
24HOU-27.82303.9604
25DEN-32.54704.1068
26TEN-35.21504.1894
27BAL-38.41304.2885
28WAS-44.42304.4747
29CHI-45.50304.5082
30OAK-65.51405.1282
31SF-69.44505.2500
32DET-80.42105.5901




































Fum. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0983%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1DET81.51305.6239
2PIT41.00904.3689
3NYG31.87804.0860
4SEA30.66904.0486
5IND26.17903.9095
6TEN22.74703.8031
7WAS20.71503.7402
8CAR19.30603.6965
9MIN17.79303.6496
10DAL13.83403.5270
11HOU12.66503.4907
12STL7.36073.3264
13DEN6.74713.3074
14NE5.08243.2558
15CHI4.31183.2319
16GB3.44653.2051
17SD0.07853.1008
18TB-3.55982.9880
19CIN-6.89822.8846
20ATL-7.02592.8807
21NO-7.78482.8571
22MIA-10.16802.7833
23ARI-10.87702.7613
24KC-14.37202.6531
25OAK-18.63402.5210
26JAX-20.14402.4742
27PHI-32.19502.1008
28BUF-32.50402.0913
29BAL-32.61902.0877
30CLE-35.68301.9928
31SF-42.36601.7857
32NYJ-58.54501.2844




































Rush offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0188)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1MIN41.99105.7064
2PHI17.17804.7092
3DEN14.21804.5902
4DAL10.87004.4557
5NYG10.84004.4545
6SF6.77894.2912
7CAR6.51374.2806
8MIA6.35464.2742
9TB6.00574.2602
10CLE5.55034.2419
11PIT4.55364.2018
12JAX2.04854.1011
13WAS1.84104.0928
14IND-0.04684.0169
15ATL-0.25734.0085
16OAK-1.21563.9700
17NE-1.44493.9607
18BAL-3.88833.8625
19TEN-4.32213.8451
20NYJ-4.98203.8186
21STL-5.23223.8085
22SD-6.69883.7496
23DET-6.74703.7477
24BUF-7.52393.7164
25ARI-8.53763.6757
26NO-8.80373.6650
27GB-9.19553.6493
28CIN-10.19203.6092
29SEA-11.04003.5751
30HOU-15.47903.3967
31CHI-15.85903.3815
32KC-26.69302.9461




































Rush defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0188)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1BAL26.78602.9423
2MIN22.93703.0970
3DET14.31003.4437
4DAL13.70503.4680
5GB10.50903.5965
6PHI10.17903.6097
7TEN7.36803.7227
8WAS6.98093.7383
9KC4.42863.8408
10IND4.27053.8472
11NYG4.06403.8555
12NO3.61043.8737
13TB3.52113.8773
14ARI3.00743.8979
15STL0.86103.9842
16SF0.77543.9876
17CAR0.60723.9944
18PIT0.26424.0082
19ATL-0.90354.0551
20SD-2.64484.1251
21BUF-3.17444.1464
22NE-4.10754.1839
23JAX-4.47394.1986
24NYJ-5.24184.2295
25SEA-5.61244.2444
26CHI-6.30674.2723
27MIA-6.92294.2970
28HOU-9.81314.4132
29CLE-14.49404.6013
30CIN-15.70104.6498
31DEN-20.02904.8237
32OAK-23.06804.9459




































Pass offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.1428)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE35.60908.3302
2DAL31.90008.1024
3HOU16.47107.1546
4GB15.59507.1008
5CIN14.29207.0207
6TB13.67706.9830
7CLE13.45406.9693
8DEN13.24606.9565
9IND12.87406.9336
10ARI7.19086.5845
11SEA6.83416.5626
12NO6.14496.5203
13JAX2.82946.3166
14PIT2.68516.3077
15SD2.20856.2785
16DET1.66166.2449
17WAS-1.35166.0598
18PHI-2.19796.0078
19NYG-4.39925.8726
20CHI-5.59925.7989
21BUF-7.92135.6562
22NYJ-10.38905.5046
23MIA-10.80105.4793
24MIN-11.09505.4613
25TEN-13.11705.3371
26KC-13.15905.3345
27CAR-13.26905.3277
28OAK-13.89005.2896
29ATL-14.44505.2555
30STL-16.42805.1337
31BAL-23.03804.7276
32SF-35.97903.9327




































Pass defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.1428)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1PIT23.49804.6994
2IND22.11504.7843
3NE17.26505.0823
4TEN16.62905.1213
5WAS12.09005.4001
6TB11.76305.4202
7KC8.39545.6271
8DAL7.84995.6606
9SEA6.69235.7317
10NYG5.90845.7799
11CHI3.36835.9359
12SD3.30795.9396
13ARI2.99045.9591
14BUF-0.01686.1438
15SF-0.13696.1512
16MIA-0.46316.1713
17PHI-0.53396.1756
18DET-1.54246.2376
19GB-1.89386.2591
20CAR-2.20816.2784
21MIN-5.61296.4876
22JAX-5.89156.5047
23HOU-7.19646.5849
24ATL-7.54646.6064
25BAL-8.39246.6583
26DEN-9.60466.7328
27CLE-9.88306.7499
28OAK-12.01906.8811
29STL-12.90606.9356
30CIN-15.47207.0932
31NYJ-20.79507.4202
32NO-29.76907.9715




































Sack rate made, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0531%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE70.145010.2990
2PIT47.31108.9168
3KC32.88308.0435
4CHI25.28307.5835
5NYG24.04607.5086
6IND22.91707.4403
7DAL20.35307.2851
8JAX17.79207.1300
9BAL17.15707.0916
10GB14.82706.9506
11TEN13.13206.8480
12TB9.64316.6368
13PHI9.42506.6236
14SEA8.71586.5806
15DET4.13856.3036
16SD-0.51806.0217
17WAS-2.60355.8955
18MIA-3.09865.8655
19ARI-4.62425.7732
20STL-4.85005.7595
21OAK-6.69255.6480
22CIN-16.78005.0374
23HOU-16.98705.0248
24DEN-17.94504.9669
25NO-19.49504.8730
26SF-20.73704.7978
27MIN-25.60004.5035
28NYJ-27.10304.4125
29ATL-32.05304.1129
30CLE-36.60003.8376
31CAR-46.05903.2651
32BUF-58.10902.5357




































Sack rate allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0531%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NO70.29601.7980
2IND48.46003.1198
3CIN47.69503.1661
4NE43.86003.3982
5GB41.70303.5288
6CLE39.12903.6846
7SD38.67803.7119
8DAL38.37503.7302
9WAS33.95103.9980
10HOU29.94904.2402
11ARI29.16904.2875
12NYG26.69004.4375
13MIA19.52504.8712
14TB18.72004.9199
15SEA18.14504.9547
16DEN11.14905.3782
17BAL-10.18906.6698
18CHI-15.35806.9827
19BUF-15.67807.0021
20TEN-16.74107.0664
21CAR-20.03507.2658
22PHI-21.19307.3359
23MIN-27.25007.7025
24JAX-33.86908.1032
25KC-40.39208.4980
26NYJ-40.66008.5143
27SF-43.94208.7129
28STL-45.41908.8023
29DET-47.48708.9275
30ATL-56.68909.4845
31OAK-68.221010.1825
32PIT-81.347010.9771




































Third down % converted, Adjusted (League Avg = 40.5253%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1IND24.137050.3069
2DAL23.788050.1655
3DEN19.304048.3483
4NO19.256048.3289
5PIT18.896048.1830
6NE18.037047.8349
7CLE13.888046.1535
8HOU12.347045.5290
9GB8.802044.0924
10PHI7.947743.7462
11CIN6.929143.3334
12NYG6.854843.3033
13NYJ6.852443.3023
14TEN4.281242.2603
15JAX2.586641.5736
16TB2.561441.5633
17SD1.192041.0084
18MIA-6.277537.9814
19WAS-6.421437.9230
20ATL-6.907937.7259
21SEA-7.657937.4219
22STL-8.151737.2218
23ARI-8.432037.1082
24OAK-8.605037.0381
25CHI-9.067236.8508
26CAR-10.677036.1984
27BUF-11.653035.8029
28KC-13.388035.0998
29BAL-15.751034.1422
30MIN-21.668031.7443
31DET-25.138030.3381
32SF-31.624027.7096




































Third down % allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 40.5253%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE23.885030.8459
2GB17.342033.4974
3KC16.032034.0283
4BAL15.284034.3314
5ATL15.125034.3959
6TEN12.814035.3324
7JAX11.858035.7198
8SEA9.667936.6074
9CHI7.349137.5471
10NYG5.296638.3789
11TB4.372438.7534
12STL3.555639.0844
13OAK2.554539.4901
14WAS1.808539.7924
15DAL0.808740.1976
16PHI-0.075740.5560
17CAR-0.925740.9005
18PIT-1.004740.9325
19SF-2.386341.4924
20SD-2.928541.7121
21CLE-3.049741.7612
22CIN-4.759242.4540
23BUF-6.551743.1804
24IND-7.691443.6423
25HOU-8.479143.9615
26MIN-8.991144.1690
27MIA-11.591045.2226
28NYJ-11.935045.3620
29DEN-15.238046.7006
30DET-17.178047.4868
31ARI-17.749047.7182
32NO-22.420049.6111




































Int. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.9555%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1NE61.70501.1318
2TB60.32601.1726
3PHI41.40601.7318
4ATL27.30102.1486
5JAX24.50902.2312
6IND23.61202.2577
7GB23.19702.2699
8MIN21.37002.3239
9BAL18.40502.4116
10WAS16.62302.4642
11CAR13.66902.5515
12DEN10.38102.6487
13SEA7.67292.7288
14PIT5.47452.7937
15HOU5.16202.8030
16CLE4.15442.8327
17BUF2.37412.8854
18MIA1.80242.9023
19SF-6.58183.1501
20KC-6.91813.1600
21NO-8.92513.2193
22NYG-16.52703.4440
23NYJ-18.40003.4994
24CIN-20.53103.5623
25DET-22.88003.6318
26SD-29.70203.8334
27CHI-29.72503.8341
28STL-30.11203.8455
29TEN-31.67403.8917
30DAL-35.71704.0112
31OAK-47.85604.3699
32ARI-54.85404.5768




































Int. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.9555%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1IND73.27605.1212
2SD47.07704.3469
3MIA45.45904.2991
4OAK37.10104.0521
5CIN36.04704.0209
6JAX27.32003.7630
7TEN22.71403.6269
8DAL22.67403.6257
9NE16.01103.4287
10KC10.68903.2715
11ATL9.31413.2308
12BAL7.90703.1892
13TB7.43733.1753
14GB6.27383.1410
15DEN3.20883.0504
16DET-1.17422.9208
17NYG-3.67342.8470
18NYJ-5.23312.8009
19ARI-5.69312.7873
20STL-6.59682.7606
21BUF-6.84052.7534
22CLE-12.52102.5855
23NO-14.38902.5303
24WAS-17.62502.4346
25PIT-17.68802.4328
26HOU-23.31102.2666
27MIN-31.71202.0183
28SF-32.57501.9928
29SEA-33.87101.9545
30PHI-34.86201.9252
31CAR-41.20201.7378
32CHI-53.82901.3646




































Fum. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0983%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1IND47.19101.6362
2PHI40.11001.8556
3JAX38.66301.9004
4MIA37.05301.9503
5NE34.24502.0373
6TB33.96402.0460
7ATL31.67602.1169
8DAL30.33202.1586
9NYJ28.40202.2184
10BUF22.34302.4061
11SD21.03202.4467
12SEA19.02802.5088
13NYG17.41302.5588
14KC6.68772.8911
15STL6.11832.9088
16CLE4.15852.9695
17GB3.99152.9747
18CIN2.77043.0125
19NO2.45673.0222
20PIT-0.64683.1184
21ARI-2.03363.1614
22CAR-11.14003.4435
23MIN-17.20803.6315
24DEN-21.62303.7683
25HOU-27.62003.9541
26CHI-28.94203.9951
27TEN-34.59904.1703
28WAS-45.47404.5073
29SF-56.58204.8514
30OAK-56.74504.8565
31BAL-60.61104.9763
32DET-77.33005.4943




































Fum. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0983%)
RankTeamVOLA (%)Actual Stat
1DET51.18904.6844
2DAL37.24904.2524
3NE36.96604.2437
4NYG33.71004.1428
5PIT32.83904.1158
6CAR32.62004.1090
7WAS28.73103.9885
8SEA24.97603.8722
9HOU22.43303.7934
10IND21.02103.7496
11TEN17.98903.6557
12MIN11.44203.4529
13TB9.16043.3822
14NO-1.59303.0490
15GB-3.14303.0010
16MIA-3.74212.9824
17DEN-4.57192.9567
18SD-5.38652.9315
19STL-6.25302.9046
20BUF-8.80162.8256
21ARI-10.72502.7660
22CHI-11.56402.7401
23CIN-15.09302.6307
24ATL-15.43302.6202
25KC-17.94402.5424
26SF-23.18002.3801
27BAL-23.68402.3645
28JAX-27.38402.2499
29OAK-34.51902.0288
30CLE-35.38802.0019
31NYJ-48.60401.5924
32PHI-48.96701.5812

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