Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 14
The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in.
| Home Team | Away Team | P(Home Team Won) (%) | Final Score Margin |
| WAS | CHI | 90.4273 | 8 |
| BUF | MIA | 99.9455 | 21 |
| DEN | KC | 99.9756 | 34 |
| SF | MIN | 1.9545 | -20 |
| NE | PIT | 76.8998 | 21 |
| SEA | ARI | 99.0068 | 21 |
| CIN | STL | 98.4705 | 9 |
| DET | DAL | 81.9878 | -1 |
| GB | OAK | 99.8651 | 31 |
| HOU | TB | 65.8002 | 14 |
| JAX | CAR | 99.6201 | 31 |
| PHI | NYG | 27.0608 | -3 |
| TEN | SD | 47.2990 | -6 |
| NYJ | CLE | 18.8732 | -6 |
Teams that hould Have Won but Didn't
Detroit Lions (vs. Cowboys), Win Prob = 81.9878% Dallas lost only one of their 3 fumbles. Other than that, Detroit was more efficient passing (6.4 ypp vs 6.0) but less efficient running (4.8 vs 5.4 ypc).
| Team | Actual Wins | Expected Wins | Projected Win Total | |
| AFC East | ||||
| BUF | 7.0 | 5.4711 | 6.7337 | |
| MIA | 0.0 | 4.1550 | 5.1138 | |
| NE | 13.0 | 10.8085 | 13.3027 | |
| NYJ | 3.0 | 4.4399 | 5.4645 | |
| AFC North | ||||
| BAL | 4.0 | 4.7986 | 6.3981 | |
| CIN | 5.0 | 6.3074 | 7.7629 | |
| CLE | 8.0 | 6.2498 | 7.6921 | |
| PIT | 9.0 | 9.0476 | 11.1355 | |
| AFC South | ||||
| HOU | 6.0 | 5.8536 | 7.2044 | |
| IND | 10.0 | 9.9883 | 13.3178 | |
| JAX | 9.0 | 8.4020 | 10.3409 | |
| TEN | 7.0 | 6.2566 | 7.7004 | |
| AFC West | ||||
| DEN | 6.0 | 6.5828 | 8.1019 | |
| KC | 4.0 | 5.4029 | 6.6498 | |
| OAK | 4.0 | 4.3975 | 5.4123 | |
| SD | 8.0 | 6.7512 | 8.3092 | |
| NFC East | ||||
| DAL | 12.0 | 10.3662 | 12.7584 | |
| NYG | 9.0 | 6.4794 | 7.9746 | |
| PHI | 5.0 | 6.8512 | 8.4323 | |
| WAS | 6.0 | 5.9926 | 7.3755 | |
| NFC North | ||||
| CHI | 5.0 | 3.5287 | 4.3431 | |
| DET | 6.0 | 6.5360 | 8.0443 | |
| GB | 11.0 | 8.8942 | 10.9467 | |
| MIN | 7.0 | 7.2190 | 8.8850 | |
| NFC South | ||||
| ATL | 3.0 | 5.6558 | 7.5410 | |
| CAR | 5.0 | 4.7525 | 5.8493 | |
| NO | 5.0 | 4.9879 | 6.6506 | |
| TB | 8.0 | 8.5017 | 10.4636 | |
| NFC West | ||||
| ARI | 6.0 | 5.3324 | 6.5629 | |
| STL | 3.0 | 4.8322 | 5.9473 | |
| SF | 3.0 | 1.9768 | 2.4330 | |
| SEA | 9.0 | 9.1806 | 11.2993 | |
2 comments:
Derek-How do you calculate projected wins? Does it consider wins already under the belt? For example, you've got NE winning only 0.3 more games for the rest of the year. I'd guess that since you've got them at 10.8 current expected wins, you really expect them to win 2.5 more games for a total of 15.5.
Nope, not at all. Keep in mind, there's an average error of 1-2 games, so in reality, New England will win 14-15 games, but they will have outperformed their expectation somewhat.
Each game is assigned an expected win value for each team which is essentially the probability that team won the game given the box score. The expected win total projections you see are the sums of those probabilities project out to a 16-game season.
New England had 2 games that they "shouldn't" have won according to that probability: @IND (based on penalties) and @BAL (based on run, pass stats and other things). This essentially means the New England isn't perfect and is unlikely to go perfect. It's a way of limiting the effects of having one really bad game or one game where you keep running up the score *ahem*.
Most of the time, recovered fumbles are the difference between winning and losing (though teams are still penalized for it). For Chicago, it's been entirely Devin Hester. Other times, it's the timing of the turnovers. Interception rates have some dependence on situation, but it's still random when these incidents occur. If it's at your own 10 yard line, bad things will happen. If it's at their 30 yard line, then perhaps not.
Offseason plans to rename these stats more clearly are pending...
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