Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 13
Night games added, tables updated
The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in.
| Home Team | Away Team | P(Home Team Won) (%) | Final Score Margin |
| DAL | GB | 98.3895 | 10 |
| WAS | BUF | 45.2877 | -1 |
| ARI | CLE | 67.1255 | 6 |
| CHI | NYG | 77.3626 | -5 |
| OAK | DEN | 86.9856 | 14 |
| NO | TB | 11.9177 | -4 |
| CAR | SF | 99.7652 | 17 |
| IND | JAX | 87.9958 | 3 |
| MIN | DET | 99.8837 | 32 |
| MIA | NYJ | 0.1795 | -27 |
| KC | SD | 20.7528 | -14 |
| PHI | SEA | 56.9403 | -4 |
| STL | ATL | 68.6178 | 12 |
| TEN | HOU | 93.3942 | 8 |
| PIT | CIN | 57.2685 | 14 |
| BAL | NE | 68.4831 | -3 |
Teams that should have won but didn't
Chicago Bears (vs. Giants), Win Prob = 77.363% The Giants threw two interceptions and fumbled four times (losing the ball only twice). Otherwise, the Giants outperformed the Bears.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Seahawks), Win Prob = 56.94% Despite Feeley's four interceptions, the Seahawks gained fewer yards per play running and passing and fumbled twice.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Patriots), Win Prob = 68.4831% The Ravens were far more efficient passing (9.1 ypp vs. 5.8) and running (4.5 ypc vs. 3.8). The fluke timeout and fumble on the interception return made the difference here. Plus a holding call that was inconsequential to the play.
| Team | Actual Wins | Expected Wins | Projected Win Total | |
| AFC East | ||||
| BUF | 6.0 | 4.4717 | 5.9622 | |
| MIA | 0.0 | 4.1544 | 5.5392 | |
| NE | 12.0 | 10.0395 | 13.3860 | |
| NYJ | 3.0 | 4.2512 | 5.6683 | |
| AFC North | ||||
| BAL | 4.0 | 4.7986 | 6.3981 | |
| CIN | 4.0 | 5.3227 | 7.0969 | |
| CLE | 7.0 | 5.4386 | 7.2514 | |
| PIT | 9.0 | 8.8166 | 11.7555 | |
| AFC South | ||||
| HOU | 5.0 | 5.1956 | 6.9274 | |
| IND | 10.0 | 9.9883 | 13.3178 | |
| JAX | 8.0 | 7.4058 | 9.8744 | |
| TEN | 7.0 | 5.7836 | 7.7114 | |
| AFC West | ||||
| DEN | 5.0 | 5.5830 | 7.4440 | |
| KC | 4.0 | 5.4027 | 7.2036 | |
| OAK | 4.0 | 4.3962 | 5.8616 | |
| SD | 7.0 | 6.2242 | 8.2989 | |
| NFC East | ||||
| DAL | 11.0 | 10.1861 | 13.5815 | |
| NYG | 8.0 | 5.7500 | 7.6666 | |
| PHI | 5.0 | 6.5806 | 8.7742 | |
| WAS | 5.0 | 5.0883 | 6.7844 | |
| NFC North | ||||
| CHI | 5.0 | 3.4330 | 4.5773 | |
| DET | 6.0 | 5.7161 | 7.6215 | |
| GB | 10.0 | 7.8955 | 10.5273 | |
| MIN | 6.0 | 6.2386 | 8.3181 | |
| NFC South | ||||
| ATL | 3.0 | 5.6558 | 7.5410 | |
| CAR | 5.0 | 4.7487 | 6.3317 | |
| NO | 5.0 | 4.9879 | 6.6506 | |
| TB | 8.0 | 8.1597 | 10.8796 | |
| NFC West | ||||
| ARI | 6.0 | 5.3225 | 7.0966 | |
| STL | 3.0 | 4.8169 | 6.4225 | |
| SF | 3.0 | 1.9573 | 2.6097 | |
| SEA | 8.0 | 8.1906 | 10.9208 | |
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