Sunday, December 2, 2007

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 13

Night games added, tables updated
The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in.



















Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
DALGB98.389510
WASBUF45.2877-1
ARICLE67.12556
CHINYG77.3626-5
OAKDEN86.985614
NOTB11.9177-4
CARSF99.765217
INDJAX87.99583
MINDET99.883732
MIANYJ0.1795-27
KCSD20.7528-14
PHISEA56.9403-4
STLATL68.617812
TENHOU93.39428
PITCIN57.268514
BALNE68.4831-3


Teams that should have won but didn't
Chicago Bears (vs. Giants), Win Prob = 77.363% The Giants threw two interceptions and fumbled four times (losing the ball only twice). Otherwise, the Giants outperformed the Bears.
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Seahawks), Win Prob = 56.94% Despite Feeley's four interceptions, the Seahawks gained fewer yards per play running and passing and fumbled twice.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Patriots), Win Prob = 68.4831% The Ravens were far more efficient passing (9.1 ypp vs. 5.8) and running (4.5 ypc vs. 3.8). The fluke timeout and fumble on the interception return made the difference here. Plus a holding call that was inconsequential to the play.




















































TeamActual WinsExpected WinsProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF6.04.47175.9622
MIA0.04.15445.5392
NE12.010.039513.3860
NYJ3.04.25125.6683
AFC North
BAL4.04.79866.3981
CIN4.05.32277.0969
CLE7.05.43867.2514
PIT9.08.816611.7555
AFC South
HOU5.05.19566.9274
IND10.09.988313.3178
JAX8.07.40589.8744
TEN7.05.78367.7114
AFC West
DEN5.05.58307.4440
KC4.05.40277.2036
OAK4.04.39625.8616
SD7.06.22428.2989
NFC East
DAL11.010.186113.5815
NYG8.05.75007.6666
PHI5.06.58068.7742
WAS5.05.08836.7844
NFC North
CHI5.03.43304.5773
DET6.05.71617.6215
GB10.07.895510.5273
MIN6.06.23868.3181
NFC South
ATL3.05.65587.5410
CAR5.04.74876.3317
NO5.04.98796.6506
TB8.08.159710.8796
NFC West
ARI6.05.32257.0966
STL3.04.81696.4225
SF3.01.95732.6097
SEA8.08.190610.9208

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