Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 16
The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in.
| Home Team | Away Team | P(Home Team Won) (%) | Final Score Margin |
| STL | PIT | 22.9134 | -17 |
| CAR | DAL | 48.1312 | -7 |
| NE | MIA | 91.5336 | 21 |
| SF | TB | 22.1527 | 2 |
| SEA | BAL | 90.5169 | 21 |
| TEN | NYJ | 70.5903 | 4 |
| MIN | WAS | 4.5396 | -11 |
| CHI | GB | 99.7046 | 28 |
| CIN | CLE | 34.1853 | 5 |
| DET | KC | 24.7062 | 5 |
| IND | HOU | 98.4264 | 23 |
| JAX | OAK | 99.9917 | 38 |
| BUF | NYG | 10.6066 | -17 |
| NO | PHI | 10.2995 | -15 |
| ARI | ATL | 47.0653 | 3 |
| SD | DEN | 98.6786 | 20 |
Teams that should have won but didn't
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ 49ers), Win Prob = 77.8473% Though Tampa Bay fumbled three times and gave up 4 sacks, they passed over twice as much as the 49ers and ran 35 more plays, lowering their sack, fumble, and interception rates. They gained 6.6 yards per pass versus 4.5. Each threw a pick, and Tampa Bay was more efficient on third downs.
Cleveland Browns (@ Bengals), Win Prob = 65.8147% Cleveland was slightly more efficient running but less efficient passing. Each team had two fumbles, but Cleveland threw four interceptions versus Cincinnati's two. Again, total number of plays comes into effect, as the Browns ran 49 pass plays while the Bengals ran 21.
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Lions), Win Prob = 75.2938% Kansas City ran 3 times as many pass plays as the Lions, averaging 6.6 yards per pass while the Lions managed only 5.5 ypp. Each team threw a pick, but the Lions' pick carries a much heavier weight because they threw the ball only 16 times.
Atlanta Falcons (@ Cardinals), Win Prob = 52.9437% Atlanta gained 4.4 yards per carry, while Arizona could gain only 2.8 ypc. They were about equal in terms of passing and third downs, and each team had a turnover. Atlanta fared slightly worse in terms of penalties and sack rates. These teams played about equally well, which is indicated by the probability and the result (an overtime win by a field goal).
| Team | Actual Wins | Expected Wins | Projected Win Total | |
| AFC East | ||||
| BUF | 7.0 | 5.6845 | 6.0634 | |
| MIA | 1.0 | 4.8060 | 5.1264 | |
| NE | 15.0 | 12.6903 | 13.5363 | |
| NYJ | 3.0 | 4.7675 | 5.0854 | |
| AFC North | ||||
| BAL | 4.0 | 5.3279 | 5.6831 | |
| CIN | 6.0 | 7.2811 | 7.7665 | |
| CLE | 9.0 | 7.8007 | 8.3208 | |
| PIT | 10.0 | 9.9438 | 10.6067 | |
| AFC South | ||||
| HOU | 7.0 | 6.7352 | 7.1842 | |
| IND | 13.0 | 12.8032 | 13.6567 | |
| JAX | 11.0 | 10.2766 | 10.9617 | |
| TEN | 9.0 | 7.7017 | 8.2152 | |
| AFC West | ||||
| DEN | 6.0 | 6.7301 | 7.1788 | |
| KC | 4.0 | 6.4166 | 6.8444 | |
| OAK | 4.0 | 4.5662 | 4.8706 | |
| SD | 10.0 | 8.7338 | 9.3161 | |
| NFC East | ||||
| DAL | 13.0 | 10.9412 | 11.6706 | |
| NYG | 10.0 | 7.5613 | 8.0654 | |
| PHI | 7.0 | 8.6919 | 9.2714 | |
| WAS | 8.0 | 7.7591 | 8.2764 | |
| NFC North | ||||
| CHI | 6.0 | 4.5408 | 4.8435 | |
| DET | 7.0 | 6.7872 | 7.2397 | |
| GB | 12.0 | 9.6663 | 10.3107 | |
| MIN | 8.0 | 8.2494 | 8.7994 | |
| NFC South | ||||
| ATL | 3.0 | 6.1991 | 6.6124 | |
| CAR | 6.0 | 6.1718 | 6.5833 | |
| NO | 7.0 | 7.0665 | 7.5376 | |
| TB | 9.0 | 10.2800 | 10.9654 | |
| NFC West | ||||
| ARI | 7.0 | 5.8136 | 6.2011 | |
| STL | 3.0 | 5.2922 | 5.6450 | |
| SF | 5.0 | 2.5666 | 2.7377 | |
| SEA | 10.0 | 10.1479 | 10.8244 | |
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