Predictions 2007 Week 15 and Accuracy Report

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Quick Summary of Accuracy
LAST WEEK
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 11 out of 16
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 11 out of 16
Linear regression, unadjusted: 11 out of 16
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 11 out of 16

YEAR SO FAR
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 67.6136%
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 66.4773%
Linear regression, unadjusted: 65.3409%
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 63.6364%

Full accuracy numbers after the jump...

Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
BAL @ MIA	0.9523	54.7323
NYJ @ NE	12.9239	85.0081
BUF @ CLE	2.8910	59.0441
JAX @ PIT	4.8960	65.9684
DEN @ HOU	1.3260	51.3723
TEN @ KC	-0.5546	47.5495
IND @ OAK	-4.5726	32.4282
DET @ SD	5.6125	65.6524
PHI @ DAL	7.6678	73.9214
WAS @ NYG	2.7065	59.4838
CHI @ MIN	7.0065	74.7751
SEA @ CAR	-1.2256	47.2636
ARI @ NO	3.7373	60.2355
ATL @ TB	7.4745	75.9095
GB @ STL	-3.7296	37.5372
CIN @ SF	-1.5455	46.8054

Predictions based on unadjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
BAL @ MIA	0.3806	52.8320
NYJ @ NE	12.4678	84.4442
BUF @ CLE	4.4071	63.8429
JAX @ PIT	5.7254	68.9211
DEN @ HOU	1.5179	51.4334
TEN @ KC	-0.4387	47.0516
IND @ OAK	-3.9297	34.0468
DET @ SD	5.7060	65.5140
PHI @ DAL	8.1466	75.0314
WAS @ NYG	3.1209	60.5767
CHI @ MIN	9.0740	79.0734
SEA @ CAR	-1.8746	45.7222
ARI @ NO	2.6761	57.8857
ATL @ TB	7.6254	77.1451
GB @ STL	-3.4341	38.8902
CIN @ SF	-1.9900	46.0685

OPPONENT-ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 67.6136%
Mean absolute error: 11.5177 points
Correlation with result: 0.4033
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.7273%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 66.4773%
Correlation with result: 0.3946
% of games predicted as home team wins: 75.0000%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 81.2500
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 68.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 47.7273
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 72.9167
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 65.6250
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 87.5000


UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 65.3409%
Mean absolute error: 11.5080 points
Correlation with result: 0.3907
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.5909%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 63.6364%
Correlation with result: 0.3830
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.1591%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 75.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 68.7500
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 61.5385
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 44.4444
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 64.5833
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 77.4194
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 63.6364
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000