Predictions 2007 Week 16 and Accuracy Report

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Quick Summary of Accuracy
LAST WEEK
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 11 out of 16
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 11 out of 16
Linear regression, unadjusted: 11 out of 16
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 11 out of 16

YEAR SO FAR
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 67.7083%
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 66.6667%
Linear regression, unadjusted: 65.6250%
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 64.0625%

Full accuracy numbers after the jump...

Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
NYG @ BUF	0.9053	55.0606
MIA @ NE	13.0040	84.2098
CLE @ CIN	2.8343	58.3370
HOU @ IND	9.1503	78.3015
OAK @ JAX	10.6111	80.2843
NYJ @ TEN	7.6900	74.7585
DEN @ SD	5.4398	66.5751
GB @ CHI	-3.8069	38.3978
KC @ DET	4.0117	65.8262
WAS @ MIN	3.1291	62.7727
DAL @ CAR	-3.2328	38.2353
PHI @ NO	0.3690	50.3606
ATL @ ARI	3.2466	62.6908
PIT @ STL	-2.5967	40.2619
TB @ SF	-6.1594	30.3052
BAL @ SEA	4.6158	67.1546

Predictions based on unadjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
NYG @ BUF	0.4342	53.2830
MIA @ NE	13.0455	84.5055
CLE @ CIN	2.5762	58.1606
HOU @ IND	8.7502	77.5031
OAK @ JAX	9.9162	78.5033
NYJ @ TEN	7.7664	75.1096
DEN @ SD	4.9907	64.0299
GB @ CHI	-4.9070	33.3815
KC @ DET	4.6501	66.1414
WAS @ MIN	4.9778	68.2217
DAL @ CAR	-3.4805	38.2718
PHI @ NO	1.0635	52.7115
ATL @ ARI	4.1298	66.1845
PIT @ STL	-2.9101	40.0653
TB @ SF	-6.5275	29.6552
BAL @ SEA	5.3262	69.5435

OPPONENT-ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 67.7083%
Mean absolute error: 11.4336 points
Correlation with result: 0.4070
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.3958%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 66.6667%
Correlation with result: 0.3988
% of games predicted as home team wins: 74.4792%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 83.3333
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 64.2857
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 50.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 72.5490
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 65.7143
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 88.8889

UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 65.6250%
Mean absolute error: 11.4516 points
Correlation with result: 0.3927
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.3542%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 64.0625%
Correlation with result: 0.3861
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.8750%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 75.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 72.2222
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 58.6207
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 48.7179
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 63.4615
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 76.4706
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 66.6667
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000