Tuesday, December 18, 2007

The Value of Homefield Advantage 2007 Week 15

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

I am completely baffled about the divisional games, though this has regressed a little towards the mean in the last couple weeks.

All Games
Home Team Win %: 55.8036%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.4330

Home Team Win %: 66.0714%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 6.1429

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 63.5294%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 3.4000

Home Team Win %: 40.9639%
Avg. Final Score Margin: -1.0602

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