tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-881050816100887731.post7728757984411037456..comments2024-01-18T02:56:26.751-08:00Comments on Football Prediction Network: Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 14Derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17941314072950152029noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-881050816100887731.post-32486396887389796072007-12-09T21:49:00.000-08:002007-12-09T21:49:00.000-08:00Nope, not at all. Keep in mind, there's an averag...Nope, not at all. Keep in mind, there's an average error of 1-2 games, so in reality, New England will win 14-15 games, but they will have outperformed their expectation somewhat.<BR/><BR/>Each game is assigned an expected win value for each team which is essentially the probability that team won the game given the box score. The expected win total projections you see are the sums of those Derekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17941314072950152029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-881050816100887731.post-74833150234028011742007-12-09T19:35:00.000-08:002007-12-09T19:35:00.000-08:00Derek-How do you calculate projected wins? Does it...Derek-How do you calculate projected wins? Does it consider wins already under the belt? For example, you've got NE winning only 0.3 more games for the rest of the year. I'd guess that since you've got them at 10.8 current expected wins, you really expect them to win 2.5 more games for a total of 15.5.Brian Burkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.com