Predictions 2007 Week 13 and Accuracy Report
The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.
Quick Summary of Accuracy
LAST WEEK
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 12 out of 16
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 12 out of 16
Linear regression, unadjusted: 12 out of 16
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 10 out of 16
YEAR SO FAR
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 67.3611%
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 65.9722%
Linear regression, unadjusted: 63.8889%
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 62.5000%
Full accuracy numbers after the jump...
| Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats | ||
| Game | Predicted Final Score Margin | P(Home Team Wins) |
| NYJ @ MIA | 6.9610 | 73.5104 |
| NE @ BAL | -7.6674 | 27.6416 |
| CIN @ PIT | 9.1425 | 77.4754 |
| JAX @ IND | 8.6228 | 77.0392 |
| HOU @ TEN | 4.1136 | 63.4817 |
| SD @ KC | 0.4279 | 52.3628 |
| DEN @ OAK | -0.0398 | 44.1519 |
| GB @ DAL | 6.7377 | 71.4024 |
| SEA @ PHI | 2.9944 | 62.0521 |
| BUF @ WAS | 5.8755 | 70.7703 |
| NYG @ CHI | -1.1950 | 45.3762 |
| DET @ MIN | 5.7047 | 67.4535 |
| SF @ CAR | 4.3467 | 64.5604 |
| TB @ NO | -2.5203 | 41.0657 |
| CLE @ ARI | 2.6273 | 60.2216 |
| ATL @ STL | 0.9571 | 53.7558 |
| Predictions based on unadjusted stats | ||
| Game | Predicted Final Score Margin | P(Home Team Wins) |
| NYJ @ MIA | 6.0238 | 70.8583 |
| NE @ BAL | -6.1271 | 32.5650 |
| CIN @ PIT | 10.2815 | 80.7850 |
| JAX @ IND | 7.2370 | 74.1194 |
| HOU @ TEN | 3.7828 | 62.2564 |
| SD @ KC | 1.3346 | 54.0065 |
| DEN @ OAK | 1.0261 | 46.2019 |
| GB @ DAL | 6.4133 | 71.2740 |
| SEA @ PHI | 1.2019 | 55.2600 |
| BUF @ WAS | 6.6218 | 72.0127 |
| NYG @ CHI | -1.7237 | 41.8105 |
| DET @ MIN | 5.4359 | 65.9035 |
| SF @ CAR | 4.1349 | 65.0194 |
| TB @ NO | -2.3708 | 42.1331 |
| CLE @ ARI | 3.2812 | 62.7295 |
| ATL @ STL | 1.1455 | 55.5421 |
OPPONENT-ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 67.3611%
Mean absolute error: 11.3790 points
Correlation with result: 0.3939
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.2222%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 65.9722%
Correlation with result: 0.3910
% of games predicted as home team wins: 75.0000%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 78.5714
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 70.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 50.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 70.5882
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 65.3846
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 87.5000
UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 63.8889%
Mean absolute error: 11.3918 points
Correlation with result: 0.3834
% of games predicted as home team wins: 70.1389%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 62.5000%
Correlation with result: 0.3780
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.5278%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 66.6667
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 64.2857
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 61.9048
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 46.8750
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 58.8235
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 80.7692
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000
11 comments:
It looks like the opponent-adjustments make a big difference, especially early in the season.
I noticed your home team win prediction rate is over 70%. Since it's really around 55% or so this year, I'm wondering how accurate your model could be if you de-tune the home team coefficients to better reflect the actual home team win rate. I bet it would be over 70%.
Also, I'd like your comments on my recent post about running on the road. I think the model I used for the research is similar to yours, and I'm wondering if you also see low coefficients for the visiting team's running efficiency.
Weight loss in men and the ability to build that dream body in about ¼ the time it would take to get it through just workouts and nutritious diet is possible with Acai Berry based weight loss supplements buy lumigan uk In such cases, a stronger formula would cause dental problems in the long run
There are proper dosage of each one recommended by the doctor buy cymbalta cost Find a counsellor or psychotherapist to help you understand and treat depression
Do not expose it for long and continuously buy viagra for women uk Also be aware of what you drink
It is much easier to take one step at a time, in bite size pieces so to speak buy iressa Even a short but intense workout will provide more in terms of weight loss than a longer aerobic program
To that excuse I ask, who do you know who grew up in a healthy normal family?2 Diflucan no prescription There are some health considerations with this method
Для любителей погорячее [url=http://aftertube.net.ua/tags/%ED%E0%E2%E0%F0%EE%F7%E5%ED%E0%FF/]навароченая[/url] Посмотри про то как [url=http://aftertube.net.ua/tags/%ED%E0%E1%EB%FE%E4%E0%F2%FC/]наблюдать[/url]
только для вхрослых
A person can live with the signs and symptoms of diabetes for years before they realize something is wrong. Spread betting carries a high level of risk. vpn iphone sdk. The importance of writing quality web content is also equally important. If your website is able to rank among the top 5 position means you will get awesome business in the form of online customers., vpn setup server 2008. You can achieve the synthesis of these three abstract entities through this meditation technique. my twitter followers
As always, compare and contrast the users but also look for an overarching theme, something that transcends the users’ differences. These tests are marked through the system and feedback may be given to the candidate one hour after they started applying for the job., it service provider. Now with so many dentists available to take care of your individual needs, you can say no to dental problems. ssl proxy surf
At the same time it facilitates a better position to the user. You can do this in five ways. openvpn web admin. Social networking is here to stay and we have always been on the frontline of new methods of communication to both the candidate and the employer. Taking vitamin supplements then may cause the excess of vitamin intakes levels., cisco ios webvpn. You can find out that detoxification is only the initial step towards recovery and by itself does little to change long term drug use. how to make vpn faster
The costs are expected to fall in the coming days; but you will be able to prepare yourself for the ordeal. 2nd life virtual reality
We learn a lesson that in as much as defensive counterintelligence has to be carried out; it should be done diplomatically to maintain these relations between organizations and nations. Most of the baby’s parents prefer organic clothes for their little ones as they are of best quality for the soft skin and are very comfortable. tecmark web access. This one stopshop of web development services thus enhances the potential of the industry by accommodating all the services and providing point to point web services to the customers all over the country. With that, you need to begin killing the cows and keep all the hides and bank them., 24online client for vista. The wedding gown is always packed off in an exquisite box and put on a moistureproof place in the closet. network bridge doesn t work
But these animals are now under severe threat and as per tiger conservationists tigers easures on the verge of extinction. outlook incoming server. It will help to boost your metabolic rate. htmail server
Begin to experience the smooth and efficient running of your restaurant without wasted profit through the use of this system. It can discolor your floor and age it quickly. dual psu server case. On the other side you will be having certain personal stuffs like your pen, papers, photographs and so no. If the one you are trying cannot relax you but stress you further, just try another approach., inet power. The challenge is for you to adapt to each of your customers. adult flash games virtual
Post a Comment