Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 17

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump.

Now that the 2007 regular season has drawn to a close, we can now take a look at teams expected to improve/decline in 2008 based on these numbers. (after the jump)

Home Team	Away Team	P(Home Team Won) (%)	Final Score Margin
NYG	NE	65.5888	-3
ATL	SEA	90.6024	3
BAL	PIT	58.4996	6
DEN	MIN	72.1244	3
NYJ	KC	87.6325	3
OAK	SD	32.9214	-13
WAS	DAL	98.4930	21
IND	TEN	6.8479	-6
TB	CAR	58.6529	-8
CHI	NO	58.7931	8
MIA	CIN	7.4240	-13
CLE	SF	91.1075	13
GB	DET	96.8080	21
HOU	JAX	37.4797	14
PHI	BUF	67.1497	8
ARI	STL	98.8517	29

Teams that "should have" won but didn't
New York Giants (vs. Patriots), Win Prob = 65.5888% The Giants averaged 4.2 yards per carry. The Patriots averaged 1.7 ypc. The Giants averaged 7.2 yards per pass. The Patriots averaged 5.7 ypp.
Tampa Bay Bucs (vs. Panthers), Win Prob = 58.6529% Carolina had two fumbles, only one of which was lost.
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Texans), Win Prob = 62.5203% Jacksonville averaged 7.0 yards per pass versus 6.3 for the Texans, and they were better on third down. Houston also threw one pick against one Jags fumble. Houston also ran only 19 pass plays, inflating the interception and sack rates.

Team	Actual Wins	Expected Wins	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	7.0	6.0130	6.0130
MIA	1.0	4.8802	4.8802
NE	16.0	13.0344	13.0344
NYJ	4.0	5.6439	5.6439
AFC North
BAL	5.0	5.9129	5.9129
CIN	7.0	8.2068	8.2068
CLE	10.0	8.7118	8.7118
PIT	10.0	10.3588	10.3588
AFC South
HOU	8.0	7.1100	7.1100
IND	13.0	12.8716	12.8716
JAX	11.0	10.9018	10.9018
TEN	10.0	8.6333	8.6333
AFC West
DEN	7.0	7.4514	7.4514
KC	4.0	6.5403	6.5403
OAK	4.0	4.8954	4.8954
SD	11.0	9.4046	9.4046
NFC East
DAL	13.0	10.9563	10.9563
NYG	10.0	8.2172	8.2172
PHI	8.0	9.3634	9.3634
WAS	9.0	8.7441	8.7441
NFC North
CHI	7.0	5.1287	5.1287
DET	7.0	6.8191	6.8191
GB	13.0	10.6343	10.6343
MIN	8.0	8.5282	8.5282
NFC South
ATL	4.0	7.1051	7.1051
CAR	7.0	6.5853	6.5853
NO	7.0	7.4786	7.4786
TB	9.0	10.8666	10.8666
NFC West
ARI	8.0	6.8021	6.8021
STL	3.0	5.3037	5.3037
SF	5.0	2.6555	2.6555
SEA	10.0	10.2418	10.2418

The average margin of error was 1.3611 games.

Teams that won >1.3611 more games than their expected win total are expected to decline in 2008. Those teams are:

• New England Patriots (16 actual vs. 13.0344 expected)
  
• Tennessee Titans (10 vs. 8.633)
  
• San Diego Chargers (11 vs. 9.4046)
  
• Dallas Cowboys (13 vs. 10.9563)
  
• New York Giants (10 vs. 8.2172)
  
• Chicago Bears (7 vs. 5.1287)
  
• Green Bay Packers (13 vs. 10.6343)
  
• San Francisco 49ers (5 vs. 2.6555)
  

Teams that won >1.3611 fewer games than their expected win total are expected to improve in 2008. Those teams are:

• Miami Dolphins (1 actual vs. 4.8802 expected)
  
• New York Jets (4 vs. 5.6439)
  
• Kansas City Chiefs (4 vs. 6.5043)
  
• Philadelphia Eagles (8 vs. 9.3634)
  
• Atlanta Falcons (4 vs. 7.1051)
  
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9 vs. 10.8666)
  
• St. Louis Rams (3 vs. 5.3037)
  

Read More......

Predictions 2007 Week 17 and Accuracy Report

Predictions based on unadjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
CIN @ MIA	-0.1176	50.1338
KC @ NYJ	3.0674	61.8436
PIT @ BAL	-2.8064	42.2222
SF @ CLE	7.6368	73.4936
JAX @ HOU	-0.5547	47.5887
TEN @ IND	8.8261	77.2495
MIN @ DEN	0.8529	48.2096
SD @ OAK	-1.6984	40.4813
NE @ NYG	-2.1160	42.3982
BUF @ PHI	6.5138	70.5099
DAL @ WAS	-1.1077	46.4259
NO @ CHI	-0.1469	49.6856
DET @ GB	7.3349	70.3761
SEA @ ATL	-1.4903	45.5305
CAR @ TB	7.5646	75.4810
STL @ ARI	4.7591	67.1907

OPPONENT-ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 67.7885%
Mean absolute error: 11.4810 points
Correlation with result: 0.4188
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.5962%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 66.8269%
Correlation with result: 0.4086
% of games predicted as home team wins: 74.5192%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 76.1905
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 65.5172
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 49.0196
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 73.2143
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 67.5676
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 90.9091

UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 65.8654%
Mean absolute error: 11.5186 points
Correlation with result: 0.3987
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.6346%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 64.4231%
Correlation with result: 0.3894
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.1154%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 70.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 47.6190
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 64.9123
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 78.3784
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 69.2308
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000

Read More......

Power Rankings 2007 Week 16

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

Power Rankings, Opponent-adjusted
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	10.9184
2	IND	10.6703
3	DAL	10.4441
4	TB	9.8023
5	JAX	9.6747
6	PIT	9.4925
7	MIN	9.1715
8	PHI	9.1059
9	GB	9.0902
10	SD	8.9651
11	WAS	8.8545
12	SEA	8.4820
13	NYG	8.3811
14	TEN	8.1760
15	DEN	7.9775
16	HOU	7.8321
17	CLE	7.6168
18	CIN	7.4845
19	NO	7.3679
20	DET	7.3406
21	CAR	7.3120
22	BUF	7.2980
23	ARI	7.1704
24	ATL	7.0634
25	BAL	6.9607
26	STL	6.5877
27	CHI	6.5075
28	KC	6.4352
29	NYJ	6.3864
30	MIA	6.2834
31	SF	5.7132
32	OAK	5.4341

Power Rankings, Unadjusted
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	10.9108
2	IND	10.4595
3	DAL	10.3775
4	TB	9.9997
5	MIN	9.8078
6	PIT	9.7576
7	JAX	9.6016
8	GB	9.3454
9	SEA	8.9187
10	SD	8.8611
11	PHI	8.7189
12	WAS	8.5318
13	NYG	8.4430
14	DEN	8.2738
15	TEN	8.2570
16	CLE	8.0482
17	CIN	7.8102
18	HOU	7.6528
19	ARI	7.6204
20	NO	7.2802
21	DET	7.2723
22	CAR	7.0987
23	BAL	7.0671
24	BUF	6.9034
25	ATL	6.8773
26	STL	6.6190
27	NYJ	6.2978
28	KC	6.2621
29	CHI	5.9982
30	MIA	5.9183
31	SF	5.6119
32	OAK	5.3978

Read More......

Stats (Raw and VOLA) 2007 Week 16

This is the data I use to make my predictions and power rankings. Below are the tables for the raw stats and the values over league average for all of the inputs I use. Rush and pass stats are yards per play. See for yourself where your team's strengths and weaknesses are.

Rush offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0623)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	MIN	29.4990	5.2607
2	PHI	16.6520	4.7388
3	NYG	13.5420	4.6125
4	JAX	12.8410	4.5840
5	DEN	11.9980	4.5497
6	DAL	6.9368	4.3441
7	PIT	6.1862	4.3136
8	CLE	6.1618	4.3127
9	NE	4.5470	4.2471
10	SD	4.5105	4.2456
11	TB	2.7136	4.1726
12	OAK	1.7613	4.1339
13	SF	0.9048	4.0991
14	MIA	-0.9293	4.0246
15	DET	-1.1363	4.0162
16	TEN	-1.7789	3.9901
17	BAL	-1.9591	3.9828
18	BUF	-2.1236	3.9761
19	CAR	-2.2482	3.9710
20	GB	-2.9413	3.9429
21	ATL	-3.4708	3.9213
22	STL	-5.9397	3.8211
23	IND	-6.2772	3.8073
24	CIN	-7.1236	3.7730
25	WAS	-7.2358	3.7684
26	NYJ	-7.7962	3.7456
27	HOU	-8.9902	3.6971
28	NO	-9.7844	3.6649
29	SEA	-9.9252	3.6591
30	ARI	-11.6470	3.5892
31	KC	-19.4070	3.2740
32	CHI	-23.2990	3.1159

Rush defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0623)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	BAL	29.0400	2.8826
2	MIN	26.5690	2.9830
3	SF	8.8459	3.7030
4	TB	8.7365	3.7074
5	CAR	8.2532	3.7271
6	PHI	7.7717	3.7466
7	SEA	4.7918	3.8677
8	WAS	4.6772	3.8723
9	IND	4.3225	3.8867
10	ARI	3.5914	3.9164
11	PIT	3.5285	3.9190
12	GB	3.5208	3.9193
13	NYG	2.8844	3.9452
14	TEN	2.2868	3.9694
15	DAL	0.8170	4.0292
16	JAX	0.7719	4.0310
17	NO	-0.1452	4.0682
18	DET	-1.7075	4.1317
19	SD	-1.7730	4.1344
20	STL	-2.3897	4.1594
21	ATL	-2.7417	4.1737
22	NYJ	-3.9521	4.2229
23	CIN	-4.9097	4.2618
24	CHI	-6.1970	4.3141
25	KC	-6.7084	4.3349
26	NE	-7.9499	4.3853
27	HOU	-8.0245	4.3883
28	BUF	-8.7974	4.4197
29	DEN	-9.5791	4.4515
30	CLE	-10.6610	4.4954
31	MIA	-12.6200	4.5750
32	OAK	-20.3100	4.8874

Pass offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0589)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	28.3200	7.7748
2	DAL	23.6900	7.4943
3	GB	20.6370	7.3093
4	IND	20.4960	7.3008
5	HOU	12.6470	6.8252
6	JAX	9.7660	6.6507
7	NO	9.3052	6.6227
8	CIN	8.9005	6.5982
9	DEN	8.6252	6.5815
10	CLE	8.5112	6.5746
11	ARI	7.6520	6.5226
12	TB	5.6090	6.3988
13	SEA	4.1939	6.3130
14	PIT	2.7309	6.2244
15	WAS	1.5125	6.1506
16	SD	1.5012	6.1499
17	DET	1.4010	6.1438
18	MIN	-2.0730	5.9333
19	PHI	-2.4783	5.9088
20	BUF	-6.3994	5.6712
21	TEN	-6.6050	5.6587
22	CHI	-7.9220	5.5789
23	NYG	-10.5130	5.4220
24	STL	-10.6780	5.4120
25	NYJ	-11.4110	5.3676
26	ATL	-11.6200	5.3549
27	OAK	-12.5760	5.2970
28	KC	-12.8530	5.2802
29	BAL	-16.1380	5.0811
30	MIA	-16.7340	5.0450
31	CAR	-18.1850	4.9571
32	SF	-31.3890	4.1571

Pass defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0589)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	16.2750	5.0728
2	PIT	15.5800	5.1150
3	TB	14.9590	5.1526
4	NE	14.2380	5.1963
5	DAL	11.3260	5.3727
6	TEN	11.2950	5.3746
7	WAS	10.4270	5.4272
8	SEA	7.7272	5.5908
9	NYG	7.1270	5.6271
10	SD	5.7596	5.7100
11	JAX	3.0872	5.8719
12	GB	1.0680	5.9942
13	PHI	-0.0211	6.0602
14	CAR	-0.9340	6.1155
15	KC	-1.3499	6.1407
16	MIN	-2.3026	6.1985
17	ARI	-2.3973	6.2042
18	CLE	-2.8470	6.2314
19	SF	-3.9029	6.2954
20	HOU	-4.1292	6.3091
21	BUF	-5.3334	6.3821
22	DEN	-5.9613	6.4201
23	DET	-6.6323	6.4608
24	STL	-6.7979	6.4708
25	ATL	-7.0050	6.4834
26	MIA	-7.6860	6.5246
27	CHI	-7.9314	6.5395
28	NYJ	-8.6246	6.5815
29	CIN	-9.2671	6.6204
30	BAL	-11.8080	6.7744
31	OAK	-15.9180	7.0234
32	NO	-17.5090	7.1198

Sack rate made, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0763%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NYG	58.0650	9.6045
2	NE	40.1920	8.5185
3	CHI	23.6680	7.5144
4	MIA	21.6060	7.3892
5	SEA	21.1760	7.3630
6	DAL	19.3370	7.2513
7	KC	19.3070	7.2495
8	SD	11.2780	6.7616
9	GB	10.7710	6.7308
10	BAL	10.3850	6.7073
11	PHI	8.1141	6.5693
12	DEN	8.0352	6.5646
13	TEN	7.5835	6.5371
14	PIT	7.1936	6.5134
15	JAX	5.4208	6.4057
16	TB	2.4454	6.2249
17	OAK	0.2088	6.0890
18	DET	-3.1920	5.8824
19	STL	-3.9453	5.8366
20	ARI	-5.2194	5.7592
21	NYJ	-5.7508	5.7269
22	NO	-6.1367	5.7034
23	SF	-9.4090	5.5046
24	IND	-10.0510	5.4656
25	HOU	-11.1240	5.4004
26	MIN	-13.2480	5.2713
27	WAS	-18.2580	4.9669
28	ATL	-32.3670	4.1096
29	CIN	-33.4100	4.0462
30	CLE	-34.6250	3.9724
31	BUF	-36.8180	3.8391
32	CAR	-40.7780	3.5985

Sack rate allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0763%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NO	67.4650	1.9769
2	CIN	50.0400	3.0357
3	GB	47.9380	3.1634
4	CLE	41.6620	3.5448
5	NE	41.6410	3.5461
6	HOU	35.0370	3.9474
7	IND	35.0370	3.9474
8	ARI	31.4280	4.1666
9	DAL	25.1940	4.5454
10	WAS	20.5730	4.8262
11	SD	18.9470	4.9250
12	NYG	17.4070	5.0186
13	SEA	8.4112	5.5652
14	BUF	2.9725	5.8957
15	DEN	-0.2315	6.0904
16	JAX	-0.6127	6.1135
17	CAR	-2.6580	6.2378
18	TEN	-3.0807	6.2635
19	TB	-6.6064	6.4777
20	BAL	-7.3937	6.5256
21	MIA	-15.6460	7.0270
22	CHI	-18.3780	7.1930
23	ATL	-26.5950	7.6923
24	PHI	-27.4670	7.7453
25	MIN	-28.6320	7.8161
26	STL	-30.3840	7.9225
27	OAK	-36.5460	8.2970
28	DET	-42.0180	8.6294
29	KC	-46.9920	8.9317
30	SF	-49.0590	9.0573
31	NYJ	-53.5200	9.3283
32	PIT	-68.5180	10.2397

Third down % converted, Unadjusted (League Avg = 39.5811%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	25.6620	49.7384
2	NE	22.0650	48.3146
3	NO	21.2700	48.0000
4	PIT	19.1050	47.1430
5	CIN	16.1150	45.9596
6	JAX	13.5080	44.9277
7	DAL	12.8840	44.6807
8	HOU	11.2190	44.0217
9	PHI	7.6085	42.5926
10	GB	6.7328	42.2460
11	CLE	5.6034	41.7990
12	DEN	4.5900	41.3978
13	NYG	3.2448	40.8654
14	SD	1.8126	40.2985
15	TEN	1.3086	40.0990
16	WAS	-0.6179	39.3365
17	NYJ	-1.3477	39.0476
18	TB	-1.9583	38.8060
19	BAL	-6.1269	37.1560
20	MIA	-6.3361	37.0732
21	STL	-6.6048	36.9668
22	OAK	-7.5971	36.5741
23	ATL	-9.0474	36.0000
24	SEA	-10.7570	35.3233
25	CAR	-10.8310	35.2940
26	KC	-11.1060	35.1852
27	ARI	-11.3750	35.0787
28	BUF	-13.0240	34.4260
29	CHI	-15.4090	33.4820
30	MIN	-15.7850	33.3332
31	DET	-17.7100	32.5713
32	SF	-20.2820	31.5532

Third down % allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 39.5811%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	18.6390	32.2036
2	KC	17.9890	32.4608
3	GB	16.6530	32.9896
4	CHI	15.3820	33.4927
5	NYG	14.5090	33.8383
6	BAL	7.9141	36.4486
7	ATL	7.6624	36.5482
8	SEA	7.4012	36.6516
9	CLE	5.7291	37.3134
10	DAL	4.4722	37.8109
11	WAS	4.3379	37.8641
12	PHI	3.1115	38.3495
13	STL	2.7245	38.5027
14	JAX	1.3101	39.0625
15	PIT	0.9729	39.1960
16	SF	-0.6112	39.8230
17	TB	-1.0584	40.0000
18	OAK	-1.3149	40.1015
19	SD	-1.5662	40.2010
20	HOU	-3.2317	40.8602
21	MIN	-3.5621	40.9910
22	NO	-5.2692	41.6667
23	TEN	-6.6213	42.2019
24	DEN	-6.6446	42.2111
25	ARI	-7.2205	42.4390
26	CAR	-8.6142	42.9907
27	CIN	-8.8528	43.0851
28	NYJ	-11.4230	44.1024
29	IND	-12.5780	44.5596
30	DET	-14.2620	45.2261
31	BUF	-14.9480	45.4976
32	MIA	-18.6670	46.9697

Int. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0205%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	TB	53.0870	1.4170
2	NE	47.1690	1.5958
3	JAX	42.1710	1.7467
4	SEA	30.9070	2.0869
5	WAS	29.6950	2.1236
6	PHI	20.2240	2.4096
7	GB	18.5410	2.4605
8	BAL	18.2540	2.4691
9	PIT	13.4450	2.6144
10	ATL	13.1800	2.6224
11	IND	12.8760	2.6316
12	NO	12.7320	2.6359
13	MIA	4.5558	2.8829
14	DEN	2.4345	2.9470
15	CAR	-3.2584	3.1189
16	BUF	-5.1023	3.1746
17	MIN	-6.5519	3.2184
18	SF	-10.1530	3.3272
19	CIN	-12.3280	3.3929
20	DAL	-12.8650	3.4091
21	SD	-13.4290	3.4261
22	KC	-15.9620	3.5026
23	CHI	-16.1660	3.5088
24	NYG	-16.9210	3.5316
25	NYJ	-17.3580	3.5448
26	CLE	-17.3580	3.5448
27	DET	-17.6400	3.5533
28	TEN	-21.5600	3.6717
29	HOU	-24.4630	3.7594
30	ARI	-26.4510	3.8194
31	OAK	-37.3440	4.1485
32	STL	-45.7180	4.4014

Int. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0205%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	SD	70.8380	5.1601
2	IND	47.4410	4.4534
3	OAK	39.5620	4.2155
4	TEN	28.6850	3.8869
5	CIN	21.2020	3.6609
6	SEA	13.3810	3.4247
7	JAX	11.9280	3.3808
8	NE	10.3570	3.3333
9	NYJ	9.3851	3.3040
10	GB	8.2351	3.2692
11	TB	6.3686	3.2129
12	DAL	6.0771	3.2040
13	MIA	6.0083	3.2020
14	STL	3.0575	3.1128
15	BUF	2.8926	3.1079
16	DEN	1.4225	3.0635
17	BAL	0.9366	3.0488
18	KC	-1.1725	2.9851
19	CLE	-2.7940	2.9361
20	ATL	-2.8164	2.9354
21	DET	-8.0355	2.7778
22	NYG	-12.7120	2.6365
23	MIN	-12.7410	2.6356
24	ARI	-13.3320	2.6178
25	CHI	-17.0720	2.5048
26	CAR	-18.4860	2.4621
27	NO	-24.4700	2.2814
28	WAS	-28.7430	2.1523
29	PIT	-30.2340	2.1073
30	HOU	-32.1830	2.0484
31	SF	-33.1780	2.0184
32	PHI	-33.5440	2.0073

Fum. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.1305%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	47.2340	1.6518
2	NE	45.1940	1.7157
3	JAX	31.3470	2.1492
4	SD	31.0250	2.1593
5	ATL	28.9150	2.2253
6	SEA	25.3260	2.3377
7	TB	23.3350	2.4000
8	PIT	20.6360	2.4845
9	CIN	20.0350	2.5033
10	DAL	19.3980	2.5232
11	PHI	12.6530	2.7344
12	NYJ	10.1980	2.8112
13	BUF	7.5429	2.8944
14	MIN	4.3855	2.9932
15	KC	3.8623	3.0096
16	NO	2.9552	3.0380
17	CLE	1.4353	3.0856
18	GB	0.0394	3.1293
19	STL	-0.2162	3.1373
20	CAR	-2.6132	3.2123
21	NYG	-5.6347	3.3069
22	HOU	-12.3870	3.5183
23	ARI	-14.0850	3.5714
24	MIA	-14.7410	3.5920
25	TEN	-16.2330	3.6387
26	DEN	-22.0230	3.8199
27	CHI	-24.8480	3.9083
28	BAL	-28.9400	4.0364
29	WAS	-30.5500	4.0868
30	DET	-53.8380	4.8159
31	OAK	-61.2040	5.0465
32	SF	-68.9100	5.2877

Fum. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.1305%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	DET	42.4730	4.4601
2	MIN	35.8440	4.2526
3	SEA	27.4360	3.9894
4	PIT	27.3840	3.9877
5	CHI	26.9570	3.9744
6	DEN	24.9440	3.9114
7	CAR	22.5470	3.8363
8	TB	22.5250	3.8356
9	NYG	12.7960	3.5311
10	WAS	11.7820	3.4993
11	TEN	10.7630	3.4674
12	BUF	10.2920	3.4527
13	NE	8.3643	3.3923
14	CIN	7.7227	3.3722
15	IND	7.4829	3.3647
16	DAL	4.0666	3.2578
17	NO	1.3393	3.1724
18	STL	-0.5805	3.1123
19	SD	-0.7148	3.1081
20	HOU	-3.2002	3.0303
21	ARI	-7.8943	2.8834
22	JAX	-13.2950	2.7143
23	MIA	-16.8130	2.6042
24	KC	-17.0850	2.5956
25	OAK	-19.6940	2.5140
26	ATL	-21.6860	2.4516
27	GB	-24.1550	2.3743
28	CLE	-26.8460	2.2901
29	PHI	-27.6060	2.2663
30	SF	-34.4940	2.0507
31	NYJ	-39.5760	1.8916
32	BAL	-52.2580	1.4946

Rush offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0623)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	MIN	26.8600	5.1535
2	PHI	17.4050	4.7694
3	NYG	13.8510	4.6250
4	JAX	10.9690	4.5079
5	DAL	9.1332	4.4334
6	DEN	7.2525	4.3570
7	CLE	6.7549	4.3367
8	SF	6.2346	4.3156
9	PIT	4.4379	4.2426
10	TB	3.9024	4.2209
11	ATL	2.4864	4.1633
12	NE	2.4447	4.1617
13	SD	1.9125	4.1400
14	CAR	-0.2263	4.0531
15	DET	-0.7903	4.0302
16	STL	-1.3423	4.0078
17	GB	-1.7344	3.9919
18	OAK	-2.5025	3.9607
19	BUF	-3.6635	3.9135
20	MIA	-3.8392	3.9064
21	SEA	-4.4168	3.8829
22	TEN	-4.6095	3.8751
23	WAS	-5.0314	3.8579
24	BAL	-5.1379	3.8536
25	CIN	-5.6932	3.8311
26	NO	-5.9925	3.8189
27	IND	-6.8089	3.7857
28	ARI	-7.8941	3.7417
29	NYJ	-8.8131	3.7043
30	HOU	-11.8460	3.5811
31	CHI	-21.2810	3.1978
32	KC	-22.8030	3.1360

Rush defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0623)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	BAL	27.6130	2.9406
2	MIN	24.1280	3.0822
3	WAS	8.1344	3.7319
4	SF	6.9425	3.7803
5	PHI	6.2810	3.8072
6	CAR	5.9558	3.8204
7	IND	5.3616	3.8445
8	TB	4.7061	3.8712
9	NYG	4.6207	3.8746
10	DAL	3.9071	3.9036
11	GB	3.3429	3.9265
12	PIT	2.8625	3.9461
13	DET	1.9400	3.9835
14	SEA	1.4792	4.0023
15	TEN	1.2634	4.0110
16	CHI	1.0955	4.0178
17	ARI	0.7115	4.0334
18	SD	-0.0263	4.0634
19	JAX	-0.9775	4.1021
20	NO	-1.3224	4.1161
21	ATL	-2.1694	4.1505
22	NYJ	-2.2118	4.1522
23	STL	-4.2036	4.2331
24	BUF	-4.2975	4.2369
25	KC	-4.3823	4.2404
26	CIN	-6.2374	4.3157
27	HOU	-7.7091	4.3755
28	NE	-8.4210	4.4044
29	MIA	-10.9570	4.5075
30	DEN	-12.0270	4.5509
31	CLE	-13.5640	4.6134
32	OAK	-20.8020	4.9074

Pass offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0589)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	30.1050	7.8830
2	DAL	23.7130	7.4957
3	IND	20.1670	7.2808
4	GB	19.0010	7.2102
5	HOU	15.0480	6.9707
6	NO	11.5240	6.7572
7	JAX	10.9540	6.7226
8	CIN	10.2850	6.6821
9	DEN	8.4016	6.5680
10	ARI	7.3272	6.5029
11	CLE	6.3500	6.4437
12	WAS	3.9419	6.2978
13	TB	3.8721	6.2935
14	DET	1.4639	6.1476
15	SEA	0.5028	6.0894
16	SD	0.4156	6.0841
17	PHI	0.0668	6.0630
18	PIT	-0.7175	6.0155
19	MIN	-3.9729	5.8182
20	BUF	-5.6692	5.7154
21	CHI	-7.2087	5.6222
22	TEN	-7.4834	5.6055
23	NYJ	-9.3891	5.4901
24	NYG	-9.6244	5.4758
25	STL	-11.2830	5.3753
26	ATL	-12.4280	5.3059
27	OAK	-12.9860	5.2721
28	KC	-13.6980	5.2290
29	MIA	-15.8560	5.0982
30	BAL	-16.6140	5.0523
31	CAR	-17.5870	4.9934
32	SF	-31.7710	4.1340

Pass defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0589)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	17.3340	5.0087
2	PIT	16.3280	5.0696
3	TB	14.5370	5.1782
4	TEN	13.8120	5.2221
5	NE	12.6120	5.2948
6	WAS	10.6860	5.4115
7	DAL	9.0070	5.5132
8	SD	8.8845	5.5206
9	NYG	6.3659	5.6732
10	SEA	5.1664	5.7459
11	JAX	5.0930	5.7504
12	PHI	4.3033	5.7982
13	KC	2.5556	5.9041
14	CAR	1.9621	5.9401
15	BUF	-1.3823	6.1427
16	GB	-2.1948	6.1919
17	MIA	-3.7005	6.2831
18	HOU	-4.1359	6.3095
19	CHI	-4.4262	6.3271
20	MIN	-4.6641	6.3415
21	SF	-4.7340	6.3458
22	DEN	-5.3970	6.3859
23	CLE	-5.7911	6.4098
24	DET	-6.6140	6.4597
25	ATL	-7.8557	6.5349
26	ARI	-8.1093	6.5503
27	STL	-8.5043	6.5742
28	NYJ	-9.8059	6.6531
29	BAL	-10.5960	6.7009
30	OAK	-12.2030	6.7983
31	CIN	-14.2210	6.9206
32	NO	-20.7860	7.3183

Sack rate made, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0763%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	42.0450	8.6311
2	NYG	38.9070	8.4404
3	KC	35.8690	8.2558
4	TB	34.4310	8.1684
5	PHI	25.6050	7.6321
6	MIA	24.6760	7.5757
7	DAL	23.3210	7.4934
8	BAL	20.6480	7.3309
9	PIT	18.8750	7.2232
10	TEN	17.5510	7.1428
11	CHI	16.6620	7.0887
12	SEA	10.2140	6.6969
13	SD	8.4921	6.5923
14	IND	3.4773	6.2876
15	JAX	2.3058	6.2164
16	STL	-1.1296	6.0077
17	GB	-2.4927	5.9248
18	OAK	-4.9597	5.7749
19	HOU	-5.4383	5.7459
20	NYJ	-9.5462	5.4963
21	DEN	-9.7343	5.4848
22	DET	-9.8793	5.4760
23	ARI	-10.8250	5.4185
24	NO	-11.8690	5.3551
25	SF	-13.4600	5.2584
26	WAS	-19.3450	4.9008
27	MIN	-20.4080	4.8363
28	ATL	-26.9680	4.4376
29	BUF	-37.0100	3.8275
30	CIN	-37.8270	3.7778
31	CLE	-42.5820	3.4889
32	CAR	-43.3180	3.4442

Sack rate allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0763%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NO	67.4190	1.9797
2	CIN	53.3040	2.8374
3	GB	49.9260	3.0427
4	NE	44.0220	3.4014
5	CLE	42.5340	3.4918
6	IND	33.5620	4.0370
7	HOU	32.8660	4.0793
8	DAL	30.5640	4.2191
9	SD	26.9670	4.4377
10	WAS	24.8870	4.5641
11	ARI	23.5400	4.6459
12	BUF	18.4120	4.9575
13	NYG	13.6960	5.2441
14	DEN	0.6805	6.0350
15	SEA	-0.4447	6.1033
16	CHI	-7.3007	6.5199
17	CAR	-7.7776	6.5489
18	JAX	-8.8398	6.6134
19	PHI	-10.0080	6.6844
20	TEN	-12.9020	6.8603
21	MIN	-13.1020	6.8724
22	TB	-15.4630	7.0159
23	MIA	-18.8200	7.2199
24	BAL	-20.8860	7.3454
25	STL	-30.5290	7.9313
26	OAK	-32.3780	8.0437
27	ATL	-32.7430	8.0659
28	DET	-35.5850	8.2386
29	KC	-47.8360	8.9830
30	NYJ	-53.3150	9.3159
31	SF	-57.8970	9.5943
32	PIT	-74.4070	10.5975

Third down % converted, Adjusted (League Avg = 39.5811%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	26.5890	50.1053
2	NO	19.5930	47.3362
3	PIT	17.6690	46.5746
4	CIN	16.0830	45.9469
5	NE	15.9330	45.8875
6	DAL	14.9310	45.4909
7	PHI	12.5880	44.5635
8	GB	10.9600	43.9192
9	JAX	10.1600	43.6025
10	HOU	9.6014	43.3814
11	NYG	4.9911	41.5566
12	SD	4.7785	41.4725
13	DEN	3.5916	41.0027
14	CLE	3.3084	40.8906
15	WAS	-0.3319	39.4497
16	NYJ	-1.1246	39.1359
17	TEN	-1.2864	39.0719
18	MIA	-4.0153	37.9918
19	TB	-4.4189	37.8320
20	STL	-4.5933	37.7630
21	OAK	-9.2666	35.9133
22	BAL	-9.7977	35.7030
23	SEA	-9.9261	35.6522
24	ARI	-10.5440	35.4076
25	CAR	-10.8980	35.2675
26	MIN	-11.3300	35.0965
27	ATL	-11.7320	34.9374
28	BUF	-12.6450	34.5760
29	CHI	-12.7880	34.5194
30	KC	-13.4370	34.2626
31	DET	-14.2970	33.9222
32	SF	-21.0370	31.2544

Third down % allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 39.5811%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	20.1130	31.6201
2	KC	19.5070	31.8600
3	CHI	11.8340	34.8970
4	NYG	11.7520	34.9295
5	GB	11.5420	35.0126
6	BAL	9.3321	35.8873
7	ATL	8.7940	36.1003
8	SEA	7.3470	36.6730
9	CLE	6.2218	37.1184
10	JAX	4.5205	37.7918
11	WAS	3.7230	38.1075
12	DAL	3.6688	38.1289
13	PHI	3.2687	38.2873
14	TB	1.8714	38.8404
15	STL	1.6189	38.9403
16	PIT	0.7390	39.2886
17	HOU	0.4711	39.3946
18	OAK	-0.8854	39.9315
19	SD	-1.1860	40.0505
20	TEN	-2.0460	40.3909
21	CAR	-3.9271	41.1355
22	SF	-4.6629	41.4267
23	DEN	-6.2514	42.0554
24	NYJ	-7.4944	42.5474
25	BUF	-7.6889	42.6244
26	MIN	-8.4844	42.9393
27	NO	-10.2420	43.6350
28	CIN	-10.7650	43.8420
29	IND	-10.8340	43.8693
30	ARI	-11.8400	44.2675
31	MIA	-15.8670	45.8614
32	DET	-21.5730	48.1199

Int. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0205%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	55.9640	1.3301
2	TB	51.6930	1.4591
3	JAX	41.0390	1.7809
4	IND	33.5390	2.0074
5	WAS	29.1560	2.1398
6	PHI	27.0620	2.2031
7	BAL	25.9940	2.2353
8	SEA	20.2200	2.4097
9	PIT	16.3040	2.5280
10	ATL	13.8860	2.6011
11	DEN	13.2480	2.6203
12	NO	9.9571	2.7197
13	MIA	9.0735	2.7464
14	GB	8.9926	2.7489
15	HOU	3.8550	2.9040
16	SD	-1.4826	3.0653
17	BUF	-1.7408	3.0731
18	KC	-3.4469	3.1246
19	CIN	-11.9390	3.3811
20	CAR	-13.9000	3.4403
21	CLE	-15.5260	3.4895
22	DET	-17.2790	3.5424
23	MIN	-17.6220	3.5528
24	SF	-20.2270	3.6314
25	NYJ	-20.2790	3.6330
26	TEN	-20.4260	3.6375
27	CHI	-23.1560	3.7199
28	DAL	-29.9230	3.9243
29	NYG	-32.1320	3.9910
30	OAK	-40.2070	4.2349
31	ARI	-43.8440	4.3448
32	STL	-46.9680	4.4392

Int. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0205%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	81.9160	5.4948
2	SD	62.5470	4.9097
3	MIA	40.8230	4.2535
4	OAK	39.9690	4.2277
5	CIN	32.1710	3.9922
6	TEN	22.1210	3.6887
7	JAX	21.7540	3.6776
8	NYJ	17.5830	3.5516
9	NE	12.4590	3.3968
10	STL	10.9950	3.3526
11	DAL	7.0939	3.2348
12	TB	6.9337	3.2299
13	SEA	-0.0069	3.0203
14	BAL	-1.4741	2.9760
15	GB	-2.0983	2.9571
16	BUF	-2.3285	2.9502
17	NO	-3.0345	2.9288
18	CLE	-4.4112	2.8873
19	ATL	-5.3646	2.8585
20	KC	-7.1264	2.8052
21	DEN	-11.5780	2.6708
22	ARI	-19.6360	2.4274
23	DET	-19.6510	2.4269
24	CHI	-19.6760	2.4262
25	NYG	-20.3430	2.4060
26	MIN	-22.3250	2.3462
27	CAR	-24.9270	2.2676
28	SF	-26.2920	2.2263
29	PIT	-28.4180	2.1621
30	PHI	-31.4620	2.0702
31	WAS	-34.5960	1.9755
32	HOU	-39.0160	1.8420

Fum. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.1305%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	44.8310	1.7271
2	NE	44.2490	1.7453
3	ATL	38.0810	1.9384
4	SD	34.3290	2.0558
5	JAX	33.6930	2.0757
6	DAL	23.8630	2.3835
7	TB	21.6360	2.4532
8	SEA	17.7220	2.5757
9	PHI	17.3400	2.5877
10	GB	13.7030	2.7015
11	KC	12.2620	2.7466
12	PIT	9.2702	2.8403
13	NYJ	6.1656	2.9375
14	BUF	4.9440	2.9757
15	NO	3.7888	3.0119
16	CIN	1.5941	3.0806
17	MIN	-3.3605	3.2357
18	CAR	-3.9680	3.2547
19	STL	-5.1590	3.2920
20	CLE	-7.4536	3.3638
21	NYG	-7.4881	3.3649
22	CHI	-12.1740	3.5116
23	HOU	-15.3470	3.6109
24	ARI	-18.5180	3.7102
25	DEN	-19.0980	3.7283
26	MIA	-21.6520	3.8083
27	TEN	-22.6030	3.8381
28	BAL	-26.1160	3.9480
29	WAS	-30.4510	4.0837
30	DET	-40.0090	4.3830
31	OAK	-53.8480	4.8162
32	SF	-57.3480	4.9258

Fum. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.1305%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	CAR	35.7530	4.2497
2	PIT	31.9400	4.1304
3	TB	29.1380	4.0426
4	DET	28.3690	4.0186
5	NE	22.4840	3.8343
6	SEA	18.4330	3.7075
7	MIN	17.9660	3.6929
8	CHI	15.9070	3.6285
9	BUF	14.5210	3.5851
10	DEN	13.6710	3.5585
11	DAL	13.3500	3.5484
12	TEN	12.9990	3.5374
13	WAS	12.0640	3.5081
14	HOU	10.4630	3.4580
15	NO	8.1038	3.3842
16	IND	6.6901	3.3399
17	NYG	4.1702	3.2610
18	STL	0.9854	3.1613
19	CIN	-1.1042	3.0959
20	SD	-4.7960	2.9803
21	ARI	-9.5634	2.8311
22	MIA	-11.6760	2.7650
23	KC	-14.8500	2.6656
24	ATL	-16.4260	2.6163
25	JAX	-16.5200	2.6133
26	OAK	-16.5530	2.6123
27	CLE	-26.3030	2.3071
28	GB	-27.6300	2.2655
29	SF	-27.6950	2.2635
30	PHI	-33.3070	2.0878
31	NYJ	-38.1050	1.9376
32	BAL	-50.1620	1.5602

Read More......

The Value of Homefield Advantage 2007 Week 16

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

All Games
Home Team Win %: 56.6667%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.7000

Interconference
Home Team Win %: 65.0000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 5.6000

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 63.0435%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 3.2935

Intradivsion
Home Team Win %: 44.3182%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 0.1023

Read More......

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 16

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in.

Home Team	Away Team	P(Home Team Won) (%)	Final Score Margin
STL	PIT	22.9134	-17
CAR	DAL	48.1312	-7
NE	MIA	91.5336	21
SF	TB	22.1527	2
SEA	BAL	90.5169	21
TEN	NYJ	70.5903	4
MIN	WAS	4.5396	-11
CHI	GB	99.7046	28
CIN	CLE	34.1853	5
DET	KC	24.7062	5
IND	HOU	98.4264	23
JAX	OAK	99.9917	38
BUF	NYG	10.6066	-17
NO	PHI	10.2995	-15
ARI	ATL	47.0653	3
SD	DEN	98.6786	20

Teams that should have won but didn't
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ 49ers), Win Prob = 77.8473% Though Tampa Bay fumbled three times and gave up 4 sacks, they passed over twice as much as the 49ers and ran 35 more plays, lowering their sack, fumble, and interception rates. They gained 6.6 yards per pass versus 4.5. Each threw a pick, and Tampa Bay was more efficient on third downs.
Cleveland Browns (@ Bengals), Win Prob = 65.8147% Cleveland was slightly more efficient running but less efficient passing. Each team had two fumbles, but Cleveland threw four interceptions versus Cincinnati's two. Again, total number of plays comes into effect, as the Browns ran 49 pass plays while the Bengals ran 21.
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Lions), Win Prob = 75.2938% Kansas City ran 3 times as many pass plays as the Lions, averaging 6.6 yards per pass while the Lions managed only 5.5 ypp. Each team threw a pick, but the Lions' pick carries a much heavier weight because they threw the ball only 16 times.
Atlanta Falcons (@ Cardinals), Win Prob = 52.9437% Atlanta gained 4.4 yards per carry, while Arizona could gain only 2.8 ypc. They were about equal in terms of passing and third downs, and each team had a turnover. Atlanta fared slightly worse in terms of penalties and sack rates. These teams played about equally well, which is indicated by the probability and the result (an overtime win by a field goal).

Team	Actual Wins	Expected Wins	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	7.0	5.6845	6.0634
MIA	1.0	4.8060	5.1264
NE	15.0	12.6903	13.5363
NYJ	3.0	4.7675	5.0854
AFC North
BAL	4.0	5.3279	5.6831
CIN	6.0	7.2811	7.7665
CLE	9.0	7.8007	8.3208
PIT	10.0	9.9438	10.6067
AFC South
HOU	7.0	6.7352	7.1842
IND	13.0	12.8032	13.6567
JAX	11.0	10.2766	10.9617
TEN	9.0	7.7017	8.2152
AFC West
DEN	6.0	6.7301	7.1788
KC	4.0	6.4166	6.8444
OAK	4.0	4.5662	4.8706
SD	10.0	8.7338	9.3161
NFC East
DAL	13.0	10.9412	11.6706
NYG	10.0	7.5613	8.0654
PHI	7.0	8.6919	9.2714
WAS	8.0	7.7591	8.2764
NFC North
CHI	6.0	4.5408	4.8435
DET	7.0	6.7872	7.2397
GB	12.0	9.6663	10.3107
MIN	8.0	8.2494	8.7994
NFC South
ATL	3.0	6.1991	6.6124
CAR	6.0	6.1718	6.5833
NO	7.0	7.0665	7.5376
TB	9.0	10.2800	10.9654
NFC West
ARI	7.0	5.8136	6.2011
STL	3.0	5.2922	5.6450
SF	5.0	2.5666	2.7377
SEA	10.0	10.1479	10.8244

Read More......

Predictions 2007 Week 16 and Accuracy Report

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Quick Summary of Accuracy
LAST WEEK
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 11 out of 16
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 11 out of 16
Linear regression, unadjusted: 11 out of 16
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 11 out of 16

YEAR SO FAR
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 67.7083%
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 66.6667%
Linear regression, unadjusted: 65.6250%
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 64.0625%

Full accuracy numbers after the jump...

Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
NYG @ BUF	0.9053	55.0606
MIA @ NE	13.0040	84.2098
CLE @ CIN	2.8343	58.3370
HOU @ IND	9.1503	78.3015
OAK @ JAX	10.6111	80.2843
NYJ @ TEN	7.6900	74.7585
DEN @ SD	5.4398	66.5751
GB @ CHI	-3.8069	38.3978
KC @ DET	4.0117	65.8262
WAS @ MIN	3.1291	62.7727
DAL @ CAR	-3.2328	38.2353
PHI @ NO	0.3690	50.3606
ATL @ ARI	3.2466	62.6908
PIT @ STL	-2.5967	40.2619
TB @ SF	-6.1594	30.3052
BAL @ SEA	4.6158	67.1546

Predictions based on unadjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
NYG @ BUF	0.4342	53.2830
MIA @ NE	13.0455	84.5055
CLE @ CIN	2.5762	58.1606
HOU @ IND	8.7502	77.5031
OAK @ JAX	9.9162	78.5033
NYJ @ TEN	7.7664	75.1096
DEN @ SD	4.9907	64.0299
GB @ CHI	-4.9070	33.3815
KC @ DET	4.6501	66.1414
WAS @ MIN	4.9778	68.2217
DAL @ CAR	-3.4805	38.2718
PHI @ NO	1.0635	52.7115
ATL @ ARI	4.1298	66.1845
PIT @ STL	-2.9101	40.0653
TB @ SF	-6.5275	29.6552
BAL @ SEA	5.3262	69.5435

OPPONENT-ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 67.7083%
Mean absolute error: 11.4336 points
Correlation with result: 0.4070
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.3958%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 66.6667%
Correlation with result: 0.3988
% of games predicted as home team wins: 74.4792%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 83.3333
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 64.2857
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 50.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 72.5490
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 65.7143
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 88.8889

UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 65.6250%
Mean absolute error: 11.4516 points
Correlation with result: 0.3927
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.3542%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 64.0625%
Correlation with result: 0.3861
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.8750%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 75.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 72.2222
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 58.6207
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 48.7179
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 63.4615
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 76.4706
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 66.6667
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000

Read More......

The Value of Homefield Advantage 2007 Week 15

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

I am completely baffled about the divisional games, though this has regressed a little towards the mean in the last couple weeks.

All Games
Home Team Win %: 55.8036%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.4330

Interconference
Home Team Win %: 66.0714%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 6.1429

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 63.5294%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 3.4000

Intradivsion
Home Team Win %: 40.9639%
Avg. Final Score Margin: -1.0602

Read More......

Power Rankings 2007 Week 15

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

Power Rankings, Unadjusted
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	10.7795
2	DAL	10.5095
3	IND	10.4331
4	MIN	10.1635
5	TB	10.0476
6	PIT	9.8106
7	GB	9.4977
8	JAX	9.0800
9	SEA	8.8732
10	SD	8.7411
11	PHI	8.5580
12	DEN	8.4992
13	WAS	8.3256
14	TEN	8.2315
15	NYG	8.1936
16	CLE	8.1169
17	HOU	7.8518
18	CIN	7.6882
19	ARI	7.6803
20	NO	7.4573
21	DET	7.2631
22	BUF	7.1796
23	BAL	7.1213
24	CAR	7.1122
25	ATL	6.7046
26	STL	6.6001
27	NYJ	6.2123
28	KC	6.0553
29	MIA	6.0417
30	OAK	5.8586
31	CHI	5.7423
32	SF	5.5710

Power Rankings, Opponent-adjusted
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	10.9732
2	IND	10.6267
3	DAL	10.5591
4	TB	9.9386
5	PIT	9.6408
6	MIN	9.4450
7	JAX	9.4199
8	GB	9.3922
9	PHI	8.9921
10	SD	8.8438
11	WAS	8.5297
12	SEA	8.3678
13	TEN	8.2583
14	NYG	8.1932
15	DEN	8.1181
16	HOU	7.8097
17	CLE	7.7665
18	DET	7.5346
19	BUF	7.4797
20	NO	7.4048
21	CIN	7.3765
22	ARI	7.3366
23	CAR	7.1503
24	BAL	6.9467
25	ATL	6.8989
26	STL	6.4431
27	KC	6.3914
28	NYJ	6.2920
29	CHI	6.2671
30	MIA	6.2115
31	OAK	5.8398
32	SF	5.5523

Read More......

Projected Final Standings 2007 Week 15

Using the projected win probabilities from the logistic regression power rankings, I estimated which games each team would win on the rest of their respective schedules. And then I summed the projected wins with the actual wins so far to get their projected win totals. The teams are sorted by division.

Projected Final Standings
Team	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	8
MIA	2
NE	16
NYJ	4
AFC North
BAL	4
CIN	6
CLE	10
PIT	11
AFC South
HOU	7
IND	14
JAX	12
TEN	9
AFC West
DEN	6
KC	4
OAK	4
SD	11
NFC East
DAL	14
NYG	9
PHI	7
WAS	7
NFC North
CHI	6
DET	7
GB	14
MIN	10
NFC South
ATL	3
CAR	6
NO	8
TB	11
NFC West
ARI	8
STL	3
SF	4
SEA	11

Read More......

Stats (Raw and VOLA) 2007 Week 15

This is the data I use to make my predictions and power rankings. Below are the tables for the raw stats and the values over league average for all of the inputs I use. Rush and pass stats are yards per play. See for yourself where your team's strengths and weaknesses are.

Rush offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0400)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	MIN	32.7040	5.3612
2	PHI	13.9020	4.6016
3	DEN	12.2600	4.5353
4	JAX	9.6565	4.4301
5	NYG	9.6015	4.4279
6	DAL	8.3950	4.3791
7	PIT	6.4257	4.2996
8	SD	5.9463	4.2802
9	TB	5.3385	4.2556
10	CLE	5.1825	4.2493
11	SF	3.2448	4.1711
12	OAK	3.0994	4.1652
13	TEN	-0.3545	4.0256
14	NE	-0.4323	4.0225
15	BAL	-1.3158	3.9868
16	DET	-1.3467	3.9856
17	MIA	-1.7807	3.9680
18	BUF	-1.9412	3.9615
19	CAR	-2.5363	3.9375
20	ATL	-3.8138	3.8859
21	GB	-5.5786	3.8146
22	NYJ	-5.8478	3.8037
23	IND	-5.8786	3.8025
24	WAS	-5.8822	3.8023
25	STL	-7.6351	3.7315
26	HOU	-8.1974	3.7088
27	CIN	-8.7115	3.6880
28	NO	-9.2167	3.6676
29	ARI	-9.6491	3.6501
30	SEA	-10.2630	3.6253
31	KC	-19.2510	3.2622
32	CHI	-22.7880	3.1193

Rush defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0400)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	BAL	31.2000	2.7795
2	MIN	26.9760	2.9501
3	CAR	8.3547	3.7024
4	TB	7.5602	3.7345
5	SF	7.1216	3.7523
6	PHI	7.0897	3.7535
7	PIT	5.5191	3.8170
8	SEA	4.3707	3.8634
9	NO	4.2148	3.8697
10	ARI	3.8770	3.8833
11	WAS	3.4574	3.9003
12	IND	3.3020	3.9066
13	NYG	2.8021	3.9268
14	DAL	1.2149	3.9909
15	GB	0.4452	4.0220
16	TEN	-0.2632	4.0506
17	JAX	-0.6102	4.0646
18	SD	-1.4322	4.0978
19	STL	-2.1623	4.1273
20	DET	-2.9889	4.1607
21	CIN	-3.9240	4.1985
22	BUF	-4.1013	4.2057
23	CHI	-4.7183	4.2306
24	ATL	-5.4629	4.2607
25	NYJ	-5.8687	4.2771
26	KC	-7.4046	4.3391
27	NE	-7.6509	4.3491
28	MIA	-9.1619	4.4101
29	HOU	-9.7165	4.4325
30	CLE	-10.8650	4.4789
31	DEN	-11.4440	4.5023
32	OAK	-17.2400	4.7365

Pass offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0654)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	30.5530	7.9186
2	DAL	25.5180	7.6132
3	GB	23.3450	7.4814
4	IND	19.0690	7.2220
5	HOU	12.9490	6.8508
6	DEN	12.1320	6.8013
7	CLE	11.0750	6.7371
8	NO	9.8837	6.6649
9	CIN	9.5053	6.6419
10	JAX	7.7404	6.5349
11	ARI	7.0549	6.4933
12	TB	5.1703	6.3790
13	SEA	4.1952	6.3199
14	DET	1.6265	6.1641
15	SD	1.2986	6.1442
16	MIN	-0.6168	6.0280
17	WAS	-0.7729	6.0185
18	PIT	-1.3061	5.9862
19	PHI	-3.3858	5.8600
20	BUF	-4.9999	5.7621
21	TEN	-6.6619	5.6613
22	CHI	-8.6990	5.5378
23	OAK	-9.5361	5.4870
24	NYG	-10.6670	5.4184
25	NYJ	-12.3010	5.3193
26	MIA	-13.2730	5.2603
27	ATL	-13.8180	5.2273
28	STL	-14.0020	5.2161
29	KC	-15.1510	5.1464
30	BAL	-16.5120	5.0639
31	CAR	-17.7030	4.9916
32	SF	-31.7150	4.1418

Pass defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0654)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	PIT	19.4120	4.8880
2	IND	18.1770	4.9629
3	TB	14.4210	5.1907
4	TEN	12.1320	5.3295
5	DAL	10.5290	5.4268
6	NE	10.4280	5.4329
7	WAS	10.0550	5.4555
8	SEA	7.5649	5.6066
9	NYG	6.0374	5.6992
10	SD	3.5857	5.8479
11	GB	1.7299	5.9605
12	PHI	0.1586	6.0558
13	JAX	0.0458	6.0626
14	MIN	-0.5086	6.0962
15	CAR	-0.8215	6.1152
16	ARI	-1.3528	6.1475
17	HOU	-1.3815	6.1492
18	KC	-1.6635	6.1663
19	CLE	-3.2060	6.2599
20	SF	-3.3048	6.2658
21	STL	-3.4060	6.2720
22	BUF	-5.6721	6.4094
23	DEN	-6.0648	6.4333
24	ATL	-6.2653	6.4454
25	DET	-6.2820	6.4464
26	MIA	-8.9476	6.6081
27	NYJ	-9.4765	6.6402
28	CHI	-10.0830	6.6770
29	CIN	-12.0060	6.7936
30	BAL	-12.3330	6.8134
31	OAK	-14.1690	6.9248
32	NO	-18.0440	7.1598

Sack rate made, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0358%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NYG	58.4180	9.5618
2	NE	31.3310	7.9269
3	CHI	29.5430	7.8189
4	SEA	23.7310	7.4681
5	MIA	20.9010	7.2973
6	KC	17.5550	7.0954
7	PHI	15.5130	6.9721
8	GB	14.6000	6.9170
9	DAL	12.4250	6.7857
10	BAL	11.4110	6.7245
11	PIT	9.3478	6.6000
12	DEN	8.6416	6.5574
13	SD	7.0926	6.4639
14	TB	1.7940	6.1441
15	JAX	0.6017	6.0721
16	OAK	-0.3438	6.0150
17	IND	-2.3293	5.8952
18	TEN	-2.7266	5.8712
19	ARI	-2.9105	5.8601
20	DET	-5.3266	5.7143
21	HOU	-6.4718	5.6452
22	NO	-8.3336	5.5328
23	NYJ	-10.9670	5.3738
24	STL	-11.9090	5.3170
25	SF	-11.9090	5.3170
26	MIN	-13.5120	5.2202
27	WAS	-14.5080	5.1601
28	ATL	-24.0340	4.5851
29	CIN	-29.4990	4.2553
30	CLE	-31.7100	4.1218
31	CAR	-35.2290	3.9094
32	BUF	-40.6060	3.5849

Sack rate allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0358%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NO	67.5140	1.9608
2	CIN	47.7450	3.1540
3	GB	47.4530	3.1716
4	NE	46.6570	3.2197
5	CLE	38.7640	3.6961
6	IND	32.5140	4.0733
7	HOU	29.8540	4.2339
8	ARI	23.9720	4.5889
9	WAS	21.5920	4.7325
10	NYG	20.5000	4.7985
11	SD	20.3830	4.8055
12	DAL	18.1830	4.9383
13	SEA	8.6332	5.5147
14	BUF	7.5096	5.5825
15	CAR	6.8058	5.6250
16	DEN	5.4267	5.7082
17	TEN	1.4270	5.9497
18	JAX	-0.1777	6.0465
19	MIA	-4.5703	6.3116
20	TB	-5.9132	6.3927
21	BAL	-8.9990	6.5789
22	CHI	-22.1730	7.3741
23	PHI	-28.1490	7.7348
24	ATL	-31.7900	7.9546
25	OAK	-33.1690	8.0378
26	STL	-33.5140	8.0586
27	MIN	-39.1190	8.3969
28	DET	-41.6800	8.5515
29	NYJ	-46.3830	8.8354
30	KC	-50.0360	9.0559
31	SF	-51.2020	9.1262
32	PIT	-64.1520	9.9079

Third down % converted, Unadjusted (League Avg = 39.6941%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NO	24.6230	49.4680
2	IND	24.5640	49.4446
3	NE	21.3550	48.1708
4	PIT	19.6650	47.5000
5	CIN	16.4820	46.2365
6	DAL	13.4400	45.0290
7	HOU	11.6490	44.3181
8	JAX	10.5390	43.8775
9	GB	9.4080	43.4286
10	DEN	6.9222	42.4419
11	PHI	4.2454	41.3793
12	NYG	2.5885	40.7216
13	CLE	2.2101	40.5714
14	SD	0.2287	39.7849
15	TEN	-0.8375	39.3617
16	NYJ	-1.3072	39.1753
17	WAS	-1.5313	39.0863
18	TB	-1.7211	39.0110
19	MIA	-4.0281	38.0952
20	BAL	-4.4417	37.9311
21	OAK	-4.7443	37.8109
22	CAR	-8.8267	36.1905
23	STL	-9.2042	36.0406
24	SEA	-9.7376	35.8289
25	ATL	-10.0260	35.7144
26	BUF	-10.2330	35.6322
27	KC	-11.4520	35.1484
28	ARI	-12.1860	34.8570
29	CHI	-16.8280	33.0144
30	MIN	-16.9790	32.9545
31	DET	-17.0490	32.9267
32	SF	-19.9610	31.7708

Third down % allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 39.6941%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	GB	18.3700	32.4023
2	KC	17.4240	32.7778
3	NE	17.0680	32.9192
4	CHI	14.3190	34.0103
5	NYG	12.0260	34.9205
6	ATL	8.1374	36.4641
7	BAL	6.7873	37.0000
8	CLE	6.6940	37.0370
9	SEA	5.8334	37.3786
10	WAS	4.8850	37.7551
11	PIT	3.3148	38.3784
12	STL	3.2148	38.4181
13	OAK	2.4801	38.7097
14	DAL	1.8813	38.9474
15	PHI	1.3072	39.1753
16	HOU	-0.7705	40.0000
17	SF	-1.0139	40.0966
18	NO	-1.3335	40.2235
19	JAX	-2.4785	40.6780
20	TB	-2.8271	40.8163
21	MIN	-2.9507	40.8654
22	SD	-3.4940	41.0811
23	DEN	-5.4257	41.8478
24	CIN	-5.6932	41.9540
25	TEN	-7.2558	42.5743
26	ARI	-7.4002	42.6316
27	CAR	-8.6992	43.1472
28	NYJ	-9.9568	43.6464
29	IND	-13.0260	44.8647
30	BUF	-15.0930	45.6852
31	DET	-15.7500	45.9460
32	MIA	-17.7480	46.7391

Int. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.9738%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	55.4190	1.3257
2	TB	53.9350	1.3699
3	JAX	45.2580	1.6279
4	SEA	38.1850	1.8382
5	GB	24.7150	2.2388
6	WAS	23.8890	2.2634
7	PHI	13.3000	2.5783
8	BAL	11.5080	2.6316
9	ATL	10.8370	2.6515
10	BUF	10.2190	2.6699
11	NO	10.0880	2.6738
12	DEN	7.5787	2.7484
13	PIT	7.0218	2.7650
14	IND	4.1182	2.8513
15	MIN	-2.6782	3.0534
16	CLE	-3.5743	3.0801
17	CAR	-5.0847	3.1250
18	CIN	-6.0596	3.1540
19	MIA	-6.1211	3.1558
20	NYG	-9.7238	3.2630
21	SF	-11.0020	3.3010
22	NYJ	-14.7910	3.4136
23	HOU	-15.2540	3.4274
24	DET	-17.3720	3.4904
25	DAL	-17.6260	3.4980
26	CHI	-20.9610	3.5971
27	KC	-23.1050	3.6609
28	TEN	-23.1200	3.6613
29	SD	-23.1200	3.6613
30	OAK	-27.1950	3.7825
31	ARI	-41.4530	4.2065
32	STL	-41.6530	4.2125

Int. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.9738%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	SD	72.6110	5.1331
2	OAK	43.2730	4.2606
3	IND	39.5010	4.1485
4	TEN	27.3750	3.7879
5	NE	23.0260	3.6585
6	SEA	22.5030	3.6430
7	GB	12.9760	3.3597
8	DEN	10.2530	3.2787
9	ATL	10.1320	3.2751
10	STL	10.0270	3.2720
11	NYJ	9.9952	3.2710
12	DAL	8.0872	3.2143
13	CIN	7.3206	3.1915
14	TB	6.8658	3.1780
15	JAX	2.0937	3.0361
16	MIA	-0.0275	2.9730
17	KC	-3.0704	2.8825
18	DET	-3.9225	2.8571
19	BUF	-4.8289	2.8302
20	BAL	-5.1730	2.8200
21	MIN	-6.7437	2.7732
22	CLE	-9.6045	2.6882
23	ARI	-11.0060	2.6465
24	CAR	-16.9700	2.4691
25	NO	-17.3100	2.4590
26	CHI	-23.8890	2.2634
27	HOU	-25.4240	2.2177
28	NYG	-26.3150	2.1912
29	SF	-31.2330	2.0450
30	PHI	-33.0140	1.9920
31	WAS	-34.1820	1.9573
32	PIT	-39.4710	1.8000

Fum. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0938%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	49.6260	1.5584
2	IND	46.4260	1.6574
3	JAX	34.9200	2.0134
4	SD	33.7450	2.0498
5	TB	29.9350	2.1676
6	CIN	23.1480	2.3776
7	ATL	22.3470	2.4024
8	PIT	22.1130	2.4096
9	BUF	20.5570	2.4578
10	DAL	20.1320	2.4709
11	PHI	18.3990	2.5245
12	SEA	18.3990	2.5245
13	NYJ	15.8010	2.6049
14	GB	11.7610	2.7299
15	NYG	7.6480	2.8571
16	MIN	5.4878	2.9240
17	CLE	1.6037	3.0441
18	KC	-0.4123	3.1065
19	STL	-0.5814	3.1117
20	NO	-4.6905	3.2389
21	CAR	-9.0078	3.3724
22	TEN	-12.6550	3.4853
23	MIA	-19.5310	3.6980
24	HOU	-20.4020	3.7249
25	DEN	-20.7480	3.7356
26	ARI	-21.5160	3.7594
27	BAL	-25.1800	3.8728
28	WAS	-33.5670	4.1322
29	CHI	-36.0480	4.2090
30	OAK	-60.2420	4.9575
31	DET	-60.8850	4.9774
32	SF	-77.4820	5.4909

Fum. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0938%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	DET	50.0570	4.6424
2	MIN	39.3630	4.3115
3	PIT	30.5990	4.0404
4	DEN	27.6520	3.9492
5	TB	26.8500	3.9244
6	CAR	26.2270	3.9052
7	SEA	23.4410	3.8190
8	CHI	17.7770	3.6437
9	IND	15.1110	3.5613
10	NE	12.6960	3.4865
11	WAS	12.1040	3.4682
12	DAL	10.6300	3.4226
13	CIN	8.4974	3.3566
14	TEN	6.9339	3.3083
15	HOU	2.1710	3.1609
16	NYG	1.6148	3.1437
17	ARI	0.1564	3.0986
18	STL	-0.3250	3.0837
19	BUF	-2.0509	3.0303
20	SD	-3.4442	2.9872
21	NO	-3.5129	2.9851
22	KC	-15.5560	2.6125
23	GB	-17.1200	2.5641
24	ATL	-18.2840	2.5281
25	MIA	-19.4160	2.4931
26	JAX	-20.8010	2.4502
27	PHI	-21.2830	2.4353
28	OAK	-22.8100	2.3881
29	CLE	-30.3000	2.1563
30	SF	-41.3070	1.8158
31	BAL	-47.6350	1.6200
32	NYJ	-47.7250	1.6173

Rush offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0400)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	MIN	29.2840	5.2230
2	PHI	14.4990	4.6257
3	NYG	10.7660	4.4749
4	DAL	10.0080	4.4443
5	JAX	9.0925	4.4073
6	SF	8.9341	4.4009
7	CLE	7.7003	4.3511
8	DEN	7.5435	4.3447
9	TB	6.0332	4.2837
10	PIT	5.0735	4.2449
11	SD	3.3363	4.1747
12	ATL	1.9089	4.1171
13	DET	-0.4674	4.0211
14	NE	-0.4926	4.0201
15	CAR	-1.3384	3.9859
16	OAK	-1.8992	3.9632
17	BUF	-3.2270	3.9096
18	STL	-3.2980	3.9067
19	GB	-3.5010	3.8985
20	TEN	-3.5615	3.8961
21	MIA	-3.5779	3.8954
22	BAL	-4.5399	3.8566
23	ARI	-5.3287	3.8247
24	NYJ	-5.7415	3.8080
25	WAS	-5.9432	3.7999
26	CIN	-5.9864	3.7981
27	IND	-6.0972	3.7936
28	NO	-6.6191	3.7726
29	SEA	-8.1215	3.7119
30	HOU	-11.4640	3.5768
31	CHI	-21.2460	3.1816
32	KC	-22.6300	3.1257

Rush defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0400)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	BAL	30.3490	2.8139
2	MIN	24.6610	3.0437
3	PHI	6.1177	3.7928
4	CAR	5.4767	3.8187
5	NYG	5.1311	3.8327
6	PIT	5.0452	3.8361
7	SF	4.9924	3.8383
8	WAS	4.8400	3.8444
9	IND	4.4825	3.8589
10	DAL	3.4378	3.9011
11	CHI	3.2699	3.9079
12	GB	3.1949	3.9109
13	TB	3.0592	3.9164
14	DET	2.5190	3.9382
15	NO	1.6434	3.9736
16	ARI	1.4819	3.9801
17	SEA	1.2447	3.9897
18	SD	-0.1477	4.0459
19	TEN	-1.1645	4.0870
20	JAX	-1.7911	4.1123
21	BUF	-2.1434	4.1266
22	ATL	-3.9085	4.1979
23	KC	-4.3809	4.2170
24	STL	-4.4954	4.2216
25	NYJ	-4.9058	4.2382
26	CIN	-5.9954	4.2822
27	MIA	-7.6927	4.3507
28	NE	-7.7833	4.3544
29	HOU	-8.7339	4.3928
30	CLE	-13.3470	4.5792
31	DEN	-14.1600	4.6120
32	OAK	-18.7380	4.7970

Pass offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0654)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	32.9750	8.0655
2	DAL	25.3220	7.6013
3	GB	22.0090	7.4003
4	IND	18.3790	7.1802
5	HOU	13.7650	6.9003
6	NO	12.7220	6.8370
7	DEN	12.0950	6.7990
8	CIN	11.5360	6.7651
9	JAX	11.1440	6.7413
10	CLE	9.7073	6.6542
11	ARI	7.8835	6.5436
12	TB	4.1736	6.3185
13	DET	1.5811	6.1613
14	SEA	1.2918	6.1438
15	WAS	1.2037	6.1384
16	SD	0.2633	6.0814
17	PHI	-0.3164	6.0462
18	MIN	-3.8949	5.8292
19	PIT	-5.2367	5.7478
20	BUF	-5.7439	5.7170
21	TEN	-7.2082	5.6282
22	CHI	-7.8298	5.5905
23	NYG	-9.6683	5.4790
24	OAK	-9.8398	5.4686
25	NYJ	-11.9010	5.3436
26	MIA	-13.3510	5.2556
27	ATL	-14.0580	5.2127
28	KC	-15.6850	5.1140
29	STL	-15.9090	5.1005
30	CAR	-17.0100	5.0337
31	BAL	-17.9300	4.9779
32	SF	-32.0910	4.1190

Pass defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0654)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	PIT	21.7340	4.7471
2	IND	18.2670	4.9574
3	TEN	15.6310	5.1173
4	TB	15.1320	5.1476
5	WAS	10.8410	5.4078
6	NE	9.5832	5.4841
7	DAL	9.1699	5.5092
8	SD	6.7571	5.6556
9	NYG	5.5234	5.7304
10	SEA	5.3640	5.7401
11	PHI	4.3569	5.8011
12	KC	3.4376	5.8569
13	JAX	2.3096	5.9253
14	CAR	-0.1999	6.0775
15	BUF	-0.7202	6.1091
16	GB	-1.2923	6.1438
17	MIN	-2.8950	6.2410
18	HOU	-2.9679	6.2454
19	DET	-4.2260	6.3217
20	STL	-5.3540	6.3901
21	SF	-5.7761	6.4157
22	DEN	-5.9373	6.4255
23	MIA	-6.3401	6.4500
24	ARI	-6.7320	6.4737
25	CLE	-6.7866	6.4770
26	CHI	-6.8381	6.4802
27	ATL	-8.6658	6.5910
28	NYJ	-9.2064	6.6238
29	OAK	-10.2240	6.6855
30	BAL	-11.0850	6.7377
31	CIN	-18.9500	7.2148
32	NO	-22.6450	7.4389

Sack rate made, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0358%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	TB	38.0440	8.3320
2	NE	37.6360	8.3074
3	NYG	35.0610	8.1520
4	KC	34.3510	8.1091
5	PHI	27.8360	7.7159
6	BAL	23.4290	7.4499
7	PIT	21.8310	7.3535
8	DAL	19.4910	7.2122
9	CHI	18.1500	7.1313
10	MIA	15.5310	6.9732
11	TEN	15.3900	6.9647
12	IND	12.7590	6.8059
13	SEA	8.6911	6.5604
14	SD	4.0863	6.2824
15	GB	0.7590	6.0816
16	JAX	0.3458	6.0567
17	HOU	0.2494	6.0508
18	STL	-5.7895	5.6863
19	OAK	-6.3723	5.6512
20	ARI	-7.7215	5.5697
21	DET	-10.5610	5.3983
22	DEN	-12.0200	5.3103
23	NYJ	-13.2720	5.2347
24	NO	-13.8500	5.1998
25	WAS	-14.1770	5.1801
26	ATL	-17.2590	4.9941
27	SF	-17.9100	4.9548
28	MIN	-23.5570	4.6139
29	CIN	-38.4880	3.7127
30	CAR	-39.1350	3.6737
31	BUF	-39.3980	3.6578
32	CLE	-39.9890	3.6221

Sack rate allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0358%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NO	66.9470	1.9950
2	CIN	50.6160	2.9807
3	GB	49.8860	3.0248
4	NE	47.6690	3.1586
5	CLE	40.6340	3.5832
6	IND	31.7160	4.1215
7	HOU	27.3680	4.3839
8	SD	27.3540	4.3848
9	WAS	26.2180	4.4533
10	DAL	23.8620	4.5955
11	NYG	21.2570	4.7528
12	BUF	17.3660	4.9876
13	ARI	16.4140	5.0451
14	DEN	5.4510	5.7068
15	CAR	-0.7332	6.0800
16	SEA	-1.0618	6.0999
17	TEN	-5.9858	6.3971
18	JAX	-6.1736	6.4084
19	PHI	-9.5791	6.6140
20	CHI	-11.2510	6.7149
21	TB	-11.4150	6.7248
22	MIA	-16.9200	7.0570
23	MIN	-19.9230	7.2383
24	BAL	-21.9530	7.3608
25	OAK	-31.3430	7.9276
26	DET	-32.1980	7.9792
27	STL	-33.4910	8.0572
28	ATL	-39.4070	8.4143
29	NYJ	-48.2880	8.9503
30	KC	-48.6810	8.9741
31	SF	-57.4320	9.5023
32	PIT	-71.2730	10.3377

Third down % converted, Adjusted (League Avg = 39.6941%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	24.8740	49.5677
2	NO	22.2910	48.5424
3	PIT	18.2250	46.9284
4	NE	16.2550	46.1464
5	CIN	16.1330	46.0980
6	DAL	15.8720	45.9944
7	GB	12.7340	44.7488
8	HOU	10.4360	43.8366
9	PHI	9.3716	43.4141
10	JAX	7.4315	42.6440
11	DEN	6.6143	42.3196
12	NYG	5.0285	41.6902
13	SD	3.7954	41.2007
14	CLE	1.4905	40.2858
15	NYJ	-1.0889	39.2619
16	WAS	-2.0257	38.8901
17	TEN	-2.6442	38.6446
18	MIA	-2.9059	38.5407
19	TB	-4.1776	38.0359
20	OAK	-6.3936	37.1563
21	STL	-6.8750	36.9652
22	BAL	-8.4520	36.3392
23	CAR	-8.7690	36.2134
24	SEA	-9.0875	36.0869
25	BUF	-10.1700	35.6573
26	ARI	-11.7690	35.0225
27	ATL	-12.2410	34.8352
28	KC	-12.7770	34.6224
29	MIN	-13.3490	34.3954
30	DET	-14.5090	33.9349
31	CHI	-16.0170	33.3363
32	SF	-19.9350	31.7811

Third down % allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 39.6941%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	KC	19.9690	31.7676
2	NE	19.1620	32.0880
3	GB	13.8640	34.1910
4	ATL	10.5060	35.5239
5	CHI	10.0600	35.7009
6	NYG	9.1398	36.0662
7	BAL	8.6234	36.2712
8	CLE	7.0725	36.8868
9	SEA	5.6410	37.4550
10	WAS	4.9766	37.7187
11	PIT	3.7610	38.2013
12	OAK	1.9728	38.9111
13	TB	1.5121	39.0939
14	HOU	1.4951	39.1007
15	STL	1.4773	39.1077
16	JAX	1.4636	39.1132
17	DAL	0.9602	39.3130
18	PHI	0.6574	39.4332
19	TEN	-2.0609	40.5122
20	SD	-3.2923	41.0010
21	CAR	-4.8474	41.6183
22	DEN	-5.0180	41.6860
23	SF	-5.2039	41.7598
24	NYJ	-5.6008	41.9173
25	BUF	-7.3992	42.6312
26	MIN	-7.8667	42.8168
27	NO	-7.9434	42.8472
28	CIN	-8.2258	42.9593
29	ARI	-11.0250	44.0704
30	IND	-11.2220	44.1486
31	MIA	-16.2690	46.1520
32	DET	-23.3290	48.9544

Int. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.9738%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	62.3680	1.1191
2	TB	55.6810	1.3180
3	JAX	41.8900	1.7281
4	IND	27.3600	2.1602
5	SEA	25.5120	2.2151
6	PHI	23.5230	2.2743
7	WAS	23.3940	2.2781
8	BUF	16.5710	2.4810
9	ATL	14.8320	2.5327
10	GB	14.4770	2.5433
11	BAL	14.2220	2.5509
12	NO	12.9020	2.5901
13	DEN	8.9376	2.7080
14	PIT	7.1949	2.7598
15	HOU	6.9812	2.7662
16	MIA	-0.8210	2.9982
17	CIN	-3.5109	3.0782
18	KC	-5.1983	3.1284
19	CLE	-6.9800	3.1814
20	MIN	-7.1447	3.1863
21	SD	-11.1000	3.3039
22	CAR	-11.8600	3.3265
23	TEN	-18.9780	3.5382
24	DET	-19.2340	3.5458
25	SF	-21.1710	3.6034
26	NYG	-24.4950	3.7022
27	CHI	-25.5080	3.7323
28	OAK	-26.8550	3.7724
29	NYJ	-31.0710	3.8978
30	STL	-35.9990	4.0443
31	DAL	-40.3790	4.1746
32	ARI	-56.9610	4.6677

Int. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.9738%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	86.4050	5.5433
2	SD	62.3720	4.8286
3	OAK	39.0360	4.1346
4	CIN	26.5950	3.7647
5	NE	24.7000	3.7083
6	MIA	21.6870	3.6187
7	NYJ	21.4090	3.6104
8	TEN	20.3630	3.5793
9	STL	19.9380	3.5667
10	JAX	18.6890	3.5296
11	NO	8.2962	3.2205
12	DAL	7.7974	3.2057
13	ATL	7.3829	3.1933
14	SEA	4.3609	3.1035
15	TB	3.7643	3.0857
16	GB	0.8795	2.9999
17	DEN	-3.9895	2.8552
18	KC	-7.4606	2.7519
19	BAL	-8.5551	2.7194
20	BUF	-10.9560	2.6480
21	CLE	-11.1460	2.6423
22	DET	-15.8250	2.5032
23	MIN	-16.7450	2.4758
24	ARI	-17.4310	2.4554
25	CAR	-26.0660	2.1986
26	CHI	-27.9320	2.1432
27	PIT	-29.7760	2.0883
28	PHI	-31.0370	2.0508
29	SF	-31.2370	2.0449
30	NYG	-33.0150	1.9920
31	HOU	-33.0220	1.9918
32	WAS	-39.5620	1.7973

Fum. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0938%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	48.7990	1.5840
2	IND	44.1960	1.7264
3	JAX	41.0070	1.8251
4	SD	37.0270	1.9482
5	TB	36.5390	1.9633
6	ATL	32.4990	2.0883
7	PHI	24.0890	2.3485
8	GB	23.2040	2.3759
9	DAL	21.8040	2.4192
10	BUF	13.6320	2.6720
11	CIN	10.0510	2.7828
12	NYJ	9.8625	2.7886
13	SEA	9.6608	2.7949
14	KC	7.7975	2.8525
15	PIT	5.9740	2.9089
16	NYG	3.9503	2.9715
17	NO	-2.1263	3.1595
18	MIN	-4.4512	3.2315
19	CLE	-7.3011	3.3196
20	CAR	-8.7858	3.3656
21	STL	-9.7962	3.3968
22	TEN	-10.3470	3.4139
23	DEN	-19.1270	3.6855
24	CHI	-20.6140	3.7315
25	HOU	-25.1160	3.8708
26	BAL	-26.7610	3.9217
27	ARI	-27.4780	3.9439
28	WAS	-33.6800	4.1357
29	MIA	-35.0720	4.1788
30	DET	-43.2810	4.4328
31	OAK	-49.9940	4.6404
32	SF	-64.9040	5.1017

Fum. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0938%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	PIT	38.9000	4.2972
2	DET	36.8690	4.2344
3	CAR	36.3660	4.2188
4	NE	34.6540	4.1659
5	TB	28.3860	3.9719
6	DAL	26.2210	3.9050
7	MIN	21.7350	3.7662
8	WAS	18.1670	3.6558
9	SEA	16.1230	3.5926
10	IND	13.5990	3.5145
11	HOU	13.1130	3.4994
12	DEN	11.4780	3.4489
13	CHI	9.2490	3.3799
14	TEN	5.9171	3.2768
15	BUF	5.7799	3.2726
16	CIN	0.4493	3.1077
17	STL	-2.9849	3.0014
18	NO	-4.0829	2.9674
19	ARI	-4.5814	2.9520
20	SD	-5.3532	2.9281
21	NYG	-8.8514	2.8199
22	KC	-9.2718	2.8069
23	ATL	-11.7330	2.7308
24	MIA	-15.8190	2.6044
25	JAX	-18.8950	2.5092
26	GB	-19.1870	2.5002
27	OAK	-24.8510	2.3249
28	PHI	-27.7520	2.2352
29	CLE	-30.5850	2.1475
30	SF	-40.2910	1.8472
31	NYJ	-42.4100	1.7817
32	BAL	-44.5780	1.7146

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