Win Probabilities and Expected Wins - 2007 Week 2

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table to be added after the Monday night game. (Edit: Second table added.)

Home Team	Away Team	P(Home Team Won) (%)	Final Score Margin
CLE	CIN	86.3076	6
NYG	GB	12.3475	-22
CHI	KC	22.0844	10
MIA	DAL	12.0833	-17
DEN	OAK	99.9670	3
DET	MIN	83.9656	3
NE	SD	98.1202	24
PHI	WAS	48.4337	-8
CAR	HOU	10.4949	-13
TEN	IND	55.4136	-2
JAX	ATL	41.6666	6
PIT	BUF	98.0932	23
STL	SF	81.8986	-1
TB	NO	99.9763	17
ARI	SEA	52.2131	3
BAL	NYJ	48.1539	7

The following games "should have been" won by the team that didn't actually win:
KC @ CHI - I don't take punt returns into consideration anymore.
IND @ TEN - 55/45 chance and the Titans lost by 2 points. I find the Colts' 6.8 yards per pass more encouraging for future performance, however.
ATL @ JAX - A 60/40 split in favor of Atlanta. Again, Jacksonville's pass efficiency (8.6 yards/pass) is more encouraging for future performance. I am disturbed at how close the first two games have been for Jacksonville, however.
SF @ STL - It came down to a 50+-yard field goal that was short by about 6 inches, but it shouldn't have to begin with. The Rams' were much more efficient on offense. Alex Smith averaged 4.6 yards per attempt against what is considered a poor defense. Beware of regression with the 49ers.
NYJ @ BAL - 52/48 split. Kellen Clemens was the more efficient passer.

Team	Actual Wins	Expected Wins	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	0.0	0.0475	0.3803
MIA	0.0	0.6747	5.3979
NE	2.0	1.9780	15.8242
NYJ	0.0	0.5216	4.1731
AFC North
BAL	1.0	0.4992	3.9934
CIN	1.0	1.1193	8.9543
CLE	1.0	0.8700	6.9598
PIT	2.0	1.9740	15.7922
AFC South
HOU	2.0	1.8926	15.1412
IND	2.0	1.4413	11.5303
JAX	1.0	1.3345	10.6759
TEN	1.0	0.6363	5.0905
AFC West
DEN	2.0	1.9712	15.7696
KC	0.0	0.7816	6.2525
OAK	0.0	0.0549	0.4396
SD	1.0	0.9888	7.9101
NFC East
DAL	2.0	1.8461	14.7685
NYG	0.0	0.1566	1.2526
PHI	0.0	0.9659	7.7270
WAS	2.0	0.9618	7.6940
NFC North
CHI	1.0	0.2509	2.0071
DET	2.0	1.7850	14.2803
GB	2.0	1.3950	11.1599
MIN	1.0	1.0239	8.1912
NFC South
ATL	0.0	0.7198	5.7582
CAR	1.0	0.9756	7.8046
NO	0.0	0.0048	0.0385
TB	1.0	1.0830	8.6641
NFC West
ARI	1.0	0.7679	6.1430
STL	0.0	0.9484	7.5868
SF	2.0	0.9353	7.4822
SEA	1.0	1.3946	11.1569