Monday, September 3, 2007

Preseason Analysis Part 1b - Final Regular Season Projections Based on Preseason Stats

In this article, I used the rushing and passing averages of projected offensive starters and the total rush/pass defense averages to project regular season win totals. Now that the preseason is over, I'm just redoing the projected win totals. The method is simple: train a linear regression model of regular season win totals using regular season stats (1996-2006), and then plug in 2007 preseason stats as the 2007 regular season stats. For simplicity's sake, I am using only rushing and passing yards per play in the model.

So what's changed with an extra two seasons of preseason? The projected win totals are all within the 0-16 range, which is good. There don't seem to be any projected division standings that feel like the reverse of what they should be, but most of the divisions still seem to place one team too high. One funny thing is that the NFC is projected to be the stronger conference. The AFC has 2 10+-win projections, as opposed to 5 for the NFC alone. Perhaps the balance of power is shifting? Detroit is still projected to win the division with 10 wins. "You know what's really strange? Jon Kitna was right..." "I know, kids. I'm scared, too."

Below are the projected standings for the 2007 season.

AFC East

  1. New England Patriots, 8.4262 wins
  2. New York Jets, 6.6077
  3. Buffalo Bills, 4.8474
  4. Miami Dolphins, 0.72791

AFC North

  1. Pittsburgh Steelers, 13.822 wins
  2. Cleveland Browns, 8.3653
  3. Baltimore Ravens, 6.0087
  4. Cincinnati Bengals, 5.3328

AFC South

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars, 11.51 wins
  2. Indianapolis Colts, 9.7991
  3. Tennessee Titans, 8.7978
  4. Houston Texans, 7.1054

AFC West

  1. Oakland Raiders, 9.4303 wins
  2. San Diego Chargers, 9.2745
  3. Denver Broncos, 7.1972
  4. Kansas City Chiefs, 3.3213

NFC East

  1. Philadelphia Eagles, 12.632 wins
  2. Dallas Cowboys, 11.58
  3. Washington Redskins, 9.7338
  4. New York Giants, 4.0315

NFC North

  1. Detroit Lions, 10.16 wins
  2. Chicago Bears, 9.4675
  3. Minnesota Vikings, 7.881
  4. Green Bay Packers, 5.2574

NFC South

  1. New Orleans Saints, 14.402 wins
  2. Carolina Panthers, 8.8436
  3. Atlanta Falcons, 7.3336
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3.5238

NFC West

  1. Seattle Seahawks, 11.19 wins
  2. San Francisco 49ers, 8.1366
  3. Arizona Falcons, 7.5798
  4. St. Louis Rams, 4.5614

1 comment:

Brian Burke said...

Awesome! I don't know how these predictions will turn out, but it will be fun to see.

The AFC North predictions scare me.