Week 1 Predictions with a Disclaimer

As these predictions are all based on 2006 numbers, if these predictions fail, I will disavow any knowledge of them and pretend they never existed. If they are correct, I will be all like "Yo, man! I called that!"

The first column of numbers is the estimated probability that the home team will win according to the logistic regression model. The second column is the expected margin of victory/defeat for the home team (i.e. Home team points - away team points) according to the linear regression model. Both models use unadjusted VOLA data for rushing, passing, sack rates, third down conversion rates, and fumble and interception rates.

Week 1 Predictions
Away Team	Home Team	P(Home team wins), log. reg.	E[Home pts. - Away pts.], lin. reg.
NO	IND	0.63015	4.3962
DEN	BUF	0.52604	1.1164
NE	NYJ	0.53689	0.89723
BAL	CIN	0.52336	-0.5153
PIT	CLE	0.44724	-1.5212
KC	HOU	0.45871	-1.1972
TEN	JAX	0.80934	10.474
DET	OAK	0.60022	3.5453
CHI	SD	0.67322	5.337
NYG	DAL	0.69801	6.5708
MIA	WAS	0.48749	-0.86472
PHI	GB	0.44148	-0.65292
ATL	MIN	0.62044	3.6674
CAR	STL	0.56447	1.9003
ARI	SF	0.66455	4.4823
TB	SEA	0.64785	4.5123