Power Rankings 2007 Week 3

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The first power rankings use linear regression to predict the final score margins of each such game. The score you see along with the rankings is the sum of all of those expected margins.

The second power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

From here on out, the power rankings will be based on the adjusted VOLA (value over league average) stats.

Power Rankings, Linear Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Point Differential
1	IND	5.1372
2	NE	4.6963
3	PHI	4.4882
4	DAL	4.4489
5	HOU	4.2759
6	JAX	2.7364
7	DEN	2.2194
8	PIT	2.0808
9	SEA	1.9967
10	WAS	1.0809
11	NYG	0.9683
12	TB	0.8943
13	TEN	0.3019
14	CAR	-0.0282
15	MIN	-0.3278
16	BAL	-0.3986
17	ARI	-0.4182
18	ATL	-0.4516
19	MIA	-0.4580
20	GB	-0.4797
21	CLE	-1.1080
22	CIN	-1.4180
23	BUF	-1.5398
24	DET	-1.6907
25	SD	-1.7952
26	SF	-2.6270
27	KC	-2.7353
28	NYJ	-2.9009
29	OAK	-2.9807
30	STL	-3.2558
31	CHI	-5.2796
32	NO	-5.4321

Power Rankings, Logistic Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	IND	10.7001
2	DAL	10.5789
3	PHI	10.4336
4	NE	10.3860
5	HOU	10.1382
6	JAX	9.4433
7	DEN	9.2701
8	SEA	9.1180
9	PIT	8.9880
10	WAS	8.6391
11	NYG	8.4719
12	TB	8.2504
13	TEN	8.1991
14	ARI	8.1641
15	MIN	8.0222
16	MIA	7.9489
17	CAR	7.8971
18	BAL	7.6365
19	GB	7.5572
20	ATL	7.5167
21	DET	7.3864
22	CLE	7.2844
23	BUF	7.1819
24	CIN	6.9683
25	SD	6.7951
26	SF	6.7815
27	KC	6.6613
28	OAK	6.5439
29	NYJ	6.3535
30	STL	6.1707
31	CHI	5.4655
32	NO	5.0481

Adddition: For those who are curious, here are the rankings based on unadjusted stats.

Power Rankings, Linear Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Point Differential
1	NE	11.2720
2	PIT	8.1241
3	DAL	7.4265
4	DEN	7.1949
5	IND	7.0557
6	TB	4.9459
7	PHI	3.8690
8	HOU	1.7319
9	TEN	1.5146
10	MIN	1.2234
11	ARI	0.8836
12	CAR	0.7423
13	BAL	0.6645
14	WAS	0.5989
15	SEA	0.4970
16	JAX	0.1947
17	GB	0.1204
18	MIA	-1.0742
19	CIN	-1.1317
20	NYG	-1.3867
21	ATL	-1.7138
22	CLE	-2.0001
23	DET	-2.0462
24	KC	-2.0476
25	SD	-3.2215
26	STL	-3.4520
27	OAK	-3.6659
28	SF	-4.5673
29	NYJ	-6.0060
30	CHI	-6.0192
31	BUF	-9.7513
32	NO	-9.9761

Power Rankings, Logistic Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	12.9813
2	PIT	11.6263
3	DAL	11.6066
4	IND	11.3967
5	DEN	11.3499
6	TB	10.4152
7	PHI	10.0796
8	ARI	8.8136
9	MIN	8.7847
10	HOU	8.7794
11	TEN	8.7690
12	CAR	8.5410
13	WAS	8.3187
14	SEA	8.3100
15	BAL	8.2196
16	JAX	8.2002
17	GB	7.9602
18	MIA	7.6812
19	NYG	7.2284
20	CIN	7.1236
21	KC	7.0974
22	DET	7.0924
23	CLE	7.0654
24	ATL	6.7873
25	OAK	6.3478
26	SD	6.1342
27	STL	6.0664
28	SF	5.9218
29	CHI	5.2842
30	NYJ	4.9917
31	BUF	3.6334
32	NO	3.3927