Tuesday, September 25, 2007

The Value of Home Field Advantage, Week 3

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

All Games
Home Team Win %: 62.5000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.7917

Home Team Win %: 71.4286%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 2.5714

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 66.6667%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 6.4667

Home Team Win %: 52.6316%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 0.0526

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