Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 3 (Updated)

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table to be added after the Monday night game. The first table will be updated as more box scores come in. Updates finished.

Home Team	Away Team	P(Home Team Won) (%)	Final Score Margin
BAL	ARI	80.3608	3
GB	SD	87.8077	7
DEN	JAX	32.4010	-9
WAS	NYG	16.6049	-7
OAK	CLE	92.2392	2
SEA	CIN	66.4904	3
HOU	IND	0.6929	-6
KC	MIN	79.0921	3
NE	BUF	99.8119	31
NYJ	MIA	37.4840	3
PHI	DET	99.7787	35
PIT	SF	94.5128	21
TB	STL	99.0428	21
ATL	CAR	40.0107	-7
CHI	DAL	1.4154	-24
NO	TEN	13.2432	-17

Teams that "should have" won but didn't
Miami Dolphins (@ Jets), Win Prob = 62.5160% So yeah, this post is going up earlier than normal because I'm a bitter Dolfan right now. Blame this one on terrible red zone offense and special teams. Ted Ginn's had TWO punt returns. TWO. I'm glad we spent a #9 pick on someone to call for a fair catch. Meanwhile, Leon Washington gets a 98-yard return. Lots of 2-TE formations and no real noticable attempts to go deep. But this week, dumping off to the running back proved real successful for the Fins. The Dolphins outperformed the Jets in most of the stats used in this system and still lost.

Team	Actual Wins	Expected Wins	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	0.0	0.0494	0.2636
MIA	0.0	1.2999	6.9328
NE	3.0	2.9761	15.8728
NYJ	1.0	0.8965	4.7812
AFC North
BAL	2.0	1.3028	6.9482
CIN	1.0	1.4544	7.7567
CLE	1.0	0.9476	5.0538
PIT	3.0	2.9192	15.5688
AFC South
HOU	2.0	1.8996	10.1311
IND	3.0	2.4344	12.9833
JAX	2.0	2.0105	10.7225
TEN	2.0	1.5039	8.0207
AFC West
DEN	2.0	2.2952	12.2411
KC	1.0	1.5725	8.3866
OAK	1.0	0.9773	5.2125
SD	1.0	1.1107	5.9236
NFC East
DAL	3.0	2.8319	15.1035
NYG	1.0	0.9905	5.2828
PHI	1.0	1.9637	10.4728
WAS	2.0	1.1278	6.0150
NFC North
CHI	1.0	0.2650	1.4135
DET	2.0	1.7873	9.5320
GB	3.0	2.2731	12.1230
MIN	1.0	1.2330	6.5759
NFC South
ATL	0.0	1.1199	5.9727
CAR	2.0	1.5755	8.4025
NO	0.0	0.1372	0.7319
TB	2.0	2.0734	11.0584
NFC West
ARI	1.0	0.9643	5.1427
STL	0.0	0.9579	5.1089
SF	2.0	0.9901	5.2808
SEA	2.0	2.0595	10.9841

Detroit still looks like a 10-win team, eerily matching Kitna's prediction. The small sample size, however, will bring them down immensely in the power rankings going up next. That one game made their pass defense look like one of the worst in the league. This is also why you shouldn't trust averages entirely.