Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 3 (Updated)

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table to be added after the Monday night game. The first table will be updated as more box scores come in. Updates finished.



















Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
BALARI80.36083
GBSD87.80777
DENJAX32.4010-9
WASNYG16.6049-7
OAKCLE92.23922
SEACIN66.49043
HOUIND0.6929-6
KCMIN79.09213
NEBUF99.811931
NYJMIA37.48403
PHIDET99.778735
PITSF94.512821
TBSTL99.042821
ATLCAR40.0107-7
CHIDAL1.4154-24
NOTEN13.2432-17


Teams that "should have" won but didn't
Miami Dolphins (@ Jets), Win Prob = 62.5160% So yeah, this post is going up earlier than normal because I'm a bitter Dolfan right now. Blame this one on terrible red zone offense and special teams. Ted Ginn's had TWO punt returns. TWO. I'm glad we spent a #9 pick on someone to call for a fair catch. Meanwhile, Leon Washington gets a 98-yard return. Lots of 2-TE formations and no real noticable attempts to go deep. But this week, dumping off to the running back proved real successful for the Fins. The Dolphins outperformed the Jets in most of the stats used in this system and still lost.




















































TeamActual WinsExpected WinsProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF0.00.04940.2636
MIA0.01.29996.9328
NE3.02.976115.8728
NYJ1.00.89654.7812
AFC North
BAL2.01.30286.9482
CIN1.01.45447.7567
CLE1.00.94765.0538
PIT3.02.919215.5688
AFC South
HOU2.01.899610.1311
IND3.02.434412.9833
JAX2.02.010510.7225
TEN2.01.50398.0207
AFC West
DEN2.02.295212.2411
KC1.01.57258.3866
OAK1.00.97735.2125
SD1.01.11075.9236
NFC East
DAL3.02.831915.1035
NYG1.00.99055.2828
PHI1.01.963710.4728
WAS2.01.12786.0150
NFC North
CHI1.00.26501.4135
DET2.01.78739.5320
GB3.02.273112.1230
MIN1.01.23306.5759
NFC South
ATL0.01.11995.9727
CAR2.01.57558.4025
NO0.00.13720.7319
TB2.02.073411.0584
NFC West
ARI1.00.96435.1427
STL0.00.95795.1089
SF2.00.99015.2808
SEA2.02.059510.9841


Detroit still looks like a 10-win team, eerily matching Kitna's prediction. The small sample size, however, will bring them down immensely in the power rankings going up next. That one game made their pass defense look like one of the worst in the league. This is also why you shouldn't trust averages entirely.

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