Thursday, September 13, 2007

Week 2 Predictions with a Disclaimer

These predictions are based on 1 week's worth of games. Beware small sample sizes. Starting with week 3, I'll actually start keeping track of prediction accuracy.

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
DAL @ MIA-6.877322.1666
SD @ NE11.677185.9734
NYJ @ BAL11.001284.6408
CIN @ CLE-11.477517.3932
BUF @ PIT22.474196.1492
ATL @ JAX13.895489.1606
IND @ TEN-11.997813.3683
OAK @ DEN20.098494.0643
GB @ NYG-1.594441.7966
WAS @ PHI3.597165.7232
KC @ CHI12.627984.1841
MIN @ DET7.162765.7160
HOU @ CAR-1.586252.4188
NO @ TB8.177776.1006
SEA @ ARI-3.041338.3299
SF @ STL-5.865930.6135

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