Thursday, September 6, 2007

Win Probability Report: Week 1 - Colts-Saints

One of the features I plan on posting over the season is the probability for each that the winning team would have won that game given the in-game statistics, specifically, rushing and passing averages, sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and fumble and interception rates. As explained here, these probability estimates make for a good approximate model of total wins that should allow us to see who's over- and underachieving as the season progresses. As it turns out, fewer games are given a 60/40 split than 99/1 splits. The Colts-Saints game tonight was one of those 99/1 games.

Given the stats, the Colts had a 99.481% probability of winning tonight's game.

For the record, the Cardinals had a 98.963% probability of winning that debacle against the Bears. They certainly did have every opportunity to crown the Bears' asses.

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