Week 4 Predictions

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
NYJ @ BUF	3.5105	65.9978
OAK @ MIA	6.3238	70.3696
NE @ CIN	-2.1512	38.6068
BAL @ CLE	0.7265	52.6149
DEN @ IND	5.4875	66.5365
KC @ SD	3.5646	60.7375
STL @ DAL	9.4807	80.1174
PHI @ NYG	-0.2369	46.0162
CHI @ DET	6.8736	71.3616
GB @ MIN	3.7115	67.9140
HOU @ ATL	-1.5299	42.1268
TB @ CAR	-0.0658	51.4045
PIT @ ARI	0.6892	55.9588
SEA @ SF	-2.9283	41.3111

Week 3 accuracy numbers delayed until probably Sunday...

Addition: Here are predictions based on unadjusted stats for those who are curious

Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
NYJ @ BUF	-1.3711	49.0697
OAK @ MIA	8.4371	74.1058
NE @ CIN	-8.8399	19.1132
BAL @ CLE	-0.1389	48.9705
DEN @ IND	4.6651	63.2223
KC @ SD	1.0107	53.3276
STL @ DAL	13.2138	86.9832
PHI @ NYG	-2.8726	38.2994
CHI @ DET	8.7209	73.7411
GB @ MIN	4.0232	69.0136
HOU @ ATL	-0.2758	46.5515
TB @ CAR	-3.5788	39.4783
PIT @ ARI	-4.7724	37.5988
SEA @ SF	-3.2617	40.1031