Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Week 3 Predictions

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
BUF @ NE21.852995.4819
MIA @ NYJ0.222754.6927
ARI @ BAL-1.132551.1005
SF @ PIT14.119787.2559
IND @ HOU3.361158.3286
JAX @ DEN14.430885.0911
MIN @ KC1.192453.7913
CLE @ OAK2.460648.9627
DET @ PHI3.192661.5361
NYG @ WAS10.273978.4863
DAL @ CHI-5.219232.4093
SD @ GB4.575669.4519
CAR @ ATL-4.773130.4124
TEN @ NO-10.060819.3533
STL @ TB4.061767.3059
CIN @ SEA4.190062.2327

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