2007 Season Week 1 - Win Probabilities and Expected Wins

Monday night games now added

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table.

Home Team	Away Team	P(Home Team Won) (%)	Final Score Margin
IND	NO	99.5428	31
STL	CAR	12.9369	-14
OAK	DET	5.4616	-15
SD	CHI	96.9960	11
SEA	TB	91.6747	14
DAL	NYG	96.6895	10
CIN	BAL	98.2367	7
SF	ARI	75.4262	3
BUF	DEN	2.8474	-1
GB	PHI	51.8465	3
HOU	KC	99.7593	17
MIN	ATL	86.3557	21
NYJ	NE	0.3179	-24
CLE	PIT	0.6903	-27
JAX	TEN	91.7820	-3
WAS	MIA	44.6093	3

* That 54-yard Hail Mary to Antwan Randel El is removed from the stats because it was a random play that inflated Jason Campbell's passing average by 50%. Now that I'm doing these stats live, I hope to be able to catch plays like this throughout the season and remove them from my data. Unfortunately, it's too prohibitive to go back and comb my 1996-2006 data. So be aware that the noise does exist in my training data. And I should point out that I am a Dolphins fan.

Team	Actual Wins	Expected Wins	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	0.0	0.0285	0.4556
MIA	0.0	0.5539	8.8625
NE	1.0	0.9968	15.9491
NYJ	0.0	0.0032	0.0509
AFC North
BAL	0.0	0.0176	0.2821
CIN	1.0	0.9824	15.7179
CLE	0.0	0.0069	0.1104
PIT	1.0	0.9931	15.8896
AFC South
HOU	1.0	0.9976	15.9615
IND	1.0	0.9954	15.9269
JAX	0.0	0.9178	14.6851
TEN	1.0	0.0822	1.3149
AFC West
DEN	1.0	0.9715	15.5444
KC	0.0	0.0024	0.0385
OAK	0.0	0.0546	0.8739
SD	1.0	0.9700	15.5194
NFC East
DAL	1.0	0.9669	15.4703
NYG	0.0	0.0331	0.5297
PHI	0.0	0.4815	7.7046
WAS	1.0	0.4461	7.1375
NFC North
CHI	0.0	0.0300	0.4806
DET	1.0	0.9454	15.1261
GB	1.0	0.5185	8.2954
MIN	1.0	0.8636	13.8169
NFC South
ATL	0.0	0.1364	2.1831
CAR	1.0	0.8706	13.9301
NO	0.0	0.0046	0.0731
TB	0.0	0.0833	1.3321
NFC West
ARI	0.0	0.2457	3.9318
STL	0.0	0.1294	2.0699
SF	1.0	0.7543	12.0682
SEA	1.0	0.9167	14.6679