Sunday, September 30, 2007

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 4 (Updated)

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table to be added after the Monday night game. The first table will be updated as more box scores come in. Updates added

















Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
ATLHOU91.029210
BUFNYJ58.88563
SFSEA0.0325-20
CARTB1.4607-13
CLEBAL80.768914
DALSTL99.906728
DETCHI98.304710
MINGB55.6513-7
MIAOAK11.8727-18
ARIPIT96.50657
INDDEN97.473318
SDKC10.5059-14
NYGPHI98.650713
CINNE1.2293-21


Teams that "should have" won but didn't
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Packers), Win Prob = 55.6513% Green Bay was significantly more efficient in the passing game (7.34 ypa vs. 5.28) but four fumbles and a far lower rushing efficiency (2.3 vs 7) probably led to this estimate.


















































TeamActual WinsExpected WinsProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF1.00.63832.5531
MIA0.01.41865.6745
NE4.03.963815.8554
NYJ1.01.30765.2305
AFC North
BAL2.01.49515.9804
CIN1.01.46675.8667
CLE2.01.75537.0211
PIT3.02.954111.8164
AFC South
HOU2.01.98937.9571
IND4.03.409113.6364
JAX2.02.010510.7225
TEN2.01.50398.0207
AFC West
DEN2.02.32059.2819
KC2.02.46749.8697
OAK2.01.85867.4344
SD1.01.21574.8630
NFC East
DAL4.03.831015.3239
NYG2.01.97707.9082
PHI1.01.97727.9086
WAS2.01.12786.0150
NFC North
CHI1.00.28201.1280
DET3.02.770311.0812
GB4.02.716610.8662
MIN1.01.78957.1580
NFC South
ATL1.02.03028.1207
CAR2.01.59016.3603
NO0.00.13720.7319
TB3.03.058812.2353
NFC West
ARI2.01.92937.7173
STL0.00.95893.8354
SF2.00.99053.9619
SEA3.03.059212.2368

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