Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 4 (Updated)
The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table to be added after the Monday night game. The first table will be updated as more box scores come in. Updates added
| Home Team | Away Team | P(Home Team Won) (%) | Final Score Margin |
| ATL | HOU | 91.0292 | 10 |
| BUF | NYJ | 58.8856 | 3 |
| SF | SEA | 0.0325 | -20 |
| CAR | TB | 1.4607 | -13 |
| CLE | BAL | 80.7689 | 14 |
| DAL | STL | 99.9067 | 28 |
| DET | CHI | 98.3047 | 10 |
| MIN | GB | 55.6513 | -7 |
| MIA | OAK | 11.8727 | -18 |
| ARI | PIT | 96.5065 | 7 |
| IND | DEN | 97.4733 | 18 |
| SD | KC | 10.5059 | -14 |
| NYG | PHI | 98.6507 | 13 |
| CIN | NE | 1.2293 | -21 |
Teams that "should have" won but didn't
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Packers), Win Prob = 55.6513% Green Bay was significantly more efficient in the passing game (7.34 ypa vs. 5.28) but four fumbles and a far lower rushing efficiency (2.3 vs 7) probably led to this estimate.
| Team | Actual Wins | Expected Wins | Projected Win Total | |
| AFC East | ||||
| BUF | 1.0 | 0.6383 | 2.5531 | |
| MIA | 0.0 | 1.4186 | 5.6745 | |
| NE | 4.0 | 3.9638 | 15.8554 | |
| NYJ | 1.0 | 1.3076 | 5.2305 | |
| AFC North | ||||
| BAL | 2.0 | 1.4951 | 5.9804 | |
| CIN | 1.0 | 1.4667 | 5.8667 | |
| CLE | 2.0 | 1.7553 | 7.0211 | |
| PIT | 3.0 | 2.9541 | 11.8164 | |
| AFC South | ||||
| HOU | 2.0 | 1.9893 | 7.9571 | |
| IND | 4.0 | 3.4091 | 13.6364 | |
| JAX | 2.0 | 2.0105 | 10.7225 | |
| TEN | 2.0 | 1.5039 | 8.0207 | |
| AFC West | ||||
| DEN | 2.0 | 2.3205 | 9.2819 | |
| KC | 2.0 | 2.4674 | 9.8697 | |
| OAK | 2.0 | 1.8586 | 7.4344 | |
| SD | 1.0 | 1.2157 | 4.8630 | |
| NFC East | ||||
| DAL | 4.0 | 3.8310 | 15.3239 | |
| NYG | 2.0 | 1.9770 | 7.9082 | |
| PHI | 1.0 | 1.9772 | 7.9086 | |
| WAS | 2.0 | 1.1278 | 6.0150 | |
| NFC North | ||||
| CHI | 1.0 | 0.2820 | 1.1280 | |
| DET | 3.0 | 2.7703 | 11.0812 | |
| GB | 4.0 | 2.7166 | 10.8662 | |
| MIN | 1.0 | 1.7895 | 7.1580 | |
| NFC South | ||||
| ATL | 1.0 | 2.0302 | 8.1207 | |
| CAR | 2.0 | 1.5901 | 6.3603 | |
| NO | 0.0 | 0.1372 | 0.7319 | |
| TB | 3.0 | 3.0588 | 12.2353 | |
| NFC West | ||||
| ARI | 2.0 | 1.9293 | 7.7173 | |
| STL | 0.0 | 0.9589 | 3.8354 | |
| SF | 2.0 | 0.9905 | 3.9619 | |
| SEA | 3.0 | 3.0592 | 12.2368 | |
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