Projected Final Standings - Week 2, 2007
Using the projected win probabilities from the logistic regression power rankings, I estimated which games each team would win on the rest of their respective schedules. And then I summed the projected wins with the actual wins so far to get their projected win totals. The teams are sorted by division.Projected Final Standings Team Projected Win Total AFC East BUF 2 MIA 5 NE 16 NYJ 2 AFC North BAL 9 CIN 6 CLE 8 PIT 14 AFC South HOU 15 IND 14 JAX 8 TEN 6 AFC West DEN 14 KC 7 OAK 3 SD 3 NFC East DAL 14 NYG 3 PHI 9 WAS 11 NFC North CHI 5 DET 10 GB 8 MIN 10 NFC South ATL 4 CAR 9 NO 0 TB 12 NFC West ARI 11 STL 4 SF 3 SEA 11
4 comments:
To make it more accurate you should add a stipulation in the prediction formula to try to remove the outcome of 16 and 0 wins. Since the possibility of either is so remote it needs to be better factored, looking over these predictions.
My policy is to not manually adjust the results. I'll take out a Hail Mary pass because it's statistical noise, but I'm not going to mess with the probability model itself because something is really unlikely. Human interpretation of the model is as important as the numbers. Of course I don't think the Pats are going undefeated. But based on their stats right now, they're considered more likely to win each of the remaining games than their respective opponents each week. Luck, injuries, special teams, etc. will play a role in the actual outcomes.
My first models, roughly similar to these, were so crude they predicted the Chargers would win 17 games last year after week 2 last year!
They didn't make it to 17, but they did have the best record in the league.
Also, are you adjusting for strength of opponent in the season win model?
I'm waiting for another week before I start adjusting for opponents. After this weekend, though, I will post the results based on opponent-adjusted stats in addition to the unadjusted stats. Shouldn't be terribly time-consuming.
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