Power Rankings - Week 1

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The first power rankings use linear regression to predict the final score margins of each such game. The score you see along with the rankings is the sum of all of those expected margins.

The second power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

Power Rankings, Linear Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Point Differential
1	NE	13.7325
2	IND	12.6659
3	HOU	11.3791
4	PIT	10.5062
5	DEN	9.8315
6	DAL	9.6199
7	CAR	7.1694
8	MIN	5.5084
9	DET	5.2108
10	SEA	4.9286
11	PHI	3.8638
12	WAS	3.8512
13	SD	3.3387
14	JAX	3.0969
15	CIN	1.6938
16	ARI	0.9178
17	SF	-0.9178
18	BAL	-1.6938
19	TEN	-3.0969
20	CHI	-3.3387
21	MIA	-3.8512
22	GB	-3.8638
23	TB	-4.9286
24	OAK	-5.2108
25	ATL	-5.5084
26	STL	-7.1694
27	NYG	-9.6199
28	BUF	-9.8315
29	CLE	-10.5062
30	KC	-11.3791
31	NO	-12.6659
32	NYJ	-13.7325

Power Rankings, Logistic Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	IND	13.1524
2	NE	13.1070
3	PIT	12.3465
4	DEN	12.1270
5	DAL	12.0315
6	HOU	11.9760
7	CAR	11.4361
8	MIN	10.7716
9	SEA	10.2733
10	DET	10.2539
11	PHI	9.6394
12	WAS	9.5602
13	JAX	9.4403
14	SD	8.9667
15	CIN	8.3876
16	ARI	8.1964
17	SF	7.8036
18	BAL	7.6124
19	CHI	7.0333
20	TEN	6.5597
21	MIA	6.4398
22	GB	6.3606
23	OAK	5.7461
24	TB	5.7267
25	ATL	5.2284
26	STL	4.5639
27	KC	4.0240
28	NYG	3.9685
29	BUF	3.8730
30	CLE	3.6535
31	NYJ	2.8930
32	NO	2.8476