Predictions 2007 Week 11 and Accuracy Report

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Quick Summary of Accuracy
LAST WEEK
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 5 out of 14
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 5 out of 14
Linear regression, unadjusted: 5 out of 14
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 5 out of 14

YEAR SO FAR
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 64.2857%
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 63.3929%
Linear regression, unadjusted: 60.7143%
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 61.6071%

Full accuracy numbers after the jump...

Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
NE @ BUF	-6.6368	30.3253
PIT @ NYJ	-5.4554	30.2069
CLE @ BAL	-0.0351	51.8188
ARI @ CIN	2.8663	56.4929
NO @ HOU	4.5981	64.4691
KC @ IND	13.0626	86.8550
SD @ JAX	4.7831	64.0067
TEN @ DEN	1.7658	55.0235
WAS @ DAL	10.3283	79.4348
MIA @ PHI	4.9982	67.2450
NYG @ DET	-0.2356	49.5420
CAR @ GB	5.0463	66.5827
OAK @ MIN	10.7081	81.5986
TB @ ATL	-2.7197	40.5660
STL @ SF	0.8274	54.1835
CHI @ SEA	5.6674	69.3459

Predictions based on unadjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
NE @ BUF	-6.5433	30.9419
PIT @ NYJ	-7.8806	24.7695
CLE @ BAL	2.6360	60.3863
ARI @ CIN	1.9950	55.3683
NO @ HOU	4.7837	66.2319
KC @ IND	11.3690	83.6040
SD @ JAX	4.9729	64.1549
TEN @ DEN	1.7813	54.0375
WAS @ DAL	9.7719	78.5473
MIA @ PHI	5.9287	68.9176
NYG @ DET	2.1344	56.1253
CAR @ GB	5.3962	67.7167
OAK @ MIN	9.6398	78.7618
TB @ ATL	-1.6355	44.5769
STL @ SF	-0.0044	53.2360
CHI @ SEA	7.5361	74.4049

OPPONENT ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 64.2857%
Mean absolute error: 11.4901 points
Correlation with result: 0.3514
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.4286%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 63.3929%
Correlation with result: 0.3502
% of games predicted as home team wins: 74.1071%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 81.8182
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 62.5000
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 51.5152
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 62.5000
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 66.6667
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 80.0000

UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 60.7143%
Mean absolute error: 11.4640 points
Correlation with result: 0.3510
% of games predicted as home team wins: 67.8571%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 61.6071%
Correlation with result: 0.3476
% of games predicted as home team wins: 68.7500%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 61.5385
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 58.8235
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 50.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 55.5556
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 83.3333
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 42.8571
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000