Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Predictions 2007 Week 11 and Accuracy Report

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Quick Summary of Accuracy
LAST WEEK
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 5 out of 14
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 5 out of 14
Linear regression, unadjusted: 5 out of 14
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 5 out of 14

YEAR SO FAR
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 64.2857%
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 63.3929%
Linear regression, unadjusted: 60.7143%
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 61.6071%

Full accuracy numbers after the jump...




















Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
NE @ BUF-6.636830.3253
PIT @ NYJ-5.455430.2069
CLE @ BAL-0.035151.8188
ARI @ CIN2.866356.4929
NO @ HOU4.598164.4691
KC @ IND13.062686.8550
SD @ JAX4.783164.0067
TEN @ DEN1.765855.0235
WAS @ DAL10.328379.4348
MIA @ PHI4.998267.2450
NYG @ DET-0.235649.5420
CAR @ GB5.046366.5827
OAK @ MIN10.708181.5986
TB @ ATL-2.719740.5660
STL @ SF0.827454.1835
CHI @ SEA5.667469.3459





















Predictions based on unadjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
NE @ BUF-6.543330.9419
PIT @ NYJ-7.880624.7695
CLE @ BAL2.636060.3863
ARI @ CIN1.995055.3683
NO @ HOU4.783766.2319
KC @ IND11.369083.6040
SD @ JAX4.972964.1549
TEN @ DEN1.781354.0375
WAS @ DAL9.771978.5473
MIA @ PHI5.928768.9176
NYG @ DET2.134456.1253
CAR @ GB5.396267.7167
OAK @ MIN9.639878.7618
TB @ ATL-1.635544.5769
STL @ SF-0.004453.2360
CHI @ SEA7.536174.4049




OPPONENT ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 64.2857%
Mean absolute error: 11.4901 points
Correlation with result: 0.3514
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.4286%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 63.3929%
Correlation with result: 0.3502
% of games predicted as home team wins: 74.1071%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 81.8182
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 62.5000
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 51.5152
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 62.5000
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 66.6667
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 80.0000

UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 60.7143%
Mean absolute error: 11.4640 points
Correlation with result: 0.3510
% of games predicted as home team wins: 67.8571%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 61.6071%
Correlation with result: 0.3476
% of games predicted as home team wins: 68.7500%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 61.5385
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 58.8235
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 50.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 55.5556
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 83.3333
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 42.8571
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000

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