Monday, November 19, 2007

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 11

Night games added and tables updated. With the Thanksgiving holiday coming up, I'm going to scale back the articles I normally post. I'll just update this article and post predictions for week 12. The rest of the updates will be retroactively added over the weekend. Happy Turkey Day!

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in.



















Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
CINARI26.8674-8
BALCLE46.8101-3
DALWAS80.86755
NYJPIT90.25443
SEACHI85.97467
SFSTL12.5273-4
GBCAR83.412214
HOUNO92.343313
INDKC39.34453
JAXSD78.06927
MINOAK66.46857
DETNYG11.3469-6
PHIMIA50.958310
ATLTB1.2857-24
BUFNE0.3451-46
DENTEN99.175614


Teams that should've won but didn't
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Colts) Win Prob = 60.6555% The Chiefs had a better day passing (hey, 3 of the Colts 4 best passing targets are injured). Manning threw the only pick. And Indy recovered their only fumble.



















































TeamActual WinsExpected WinsProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF5.03.90376.2460
MIA0.03.91886.2701
NE10.08.863014.1808
NYJ2.03.24045.1846
AFC North
BAL4.04.07996.5279
CIN3.03.93656.2985
CLE6.04.46417.1425
PIT7.07.477711.9643
AFC South
HOU5.04.77537.6404
IND8.08.441113.5058
JAX7.06.306610.0905
TEN6.04.80857.6935
AFC West
DEN5.04.54027.2644
KC4.05.06748.1079
OAK2.02.65414.2465
SD5.04.46557.1448
NFC East
DAL9.08.214813.1437
NYG7.05.49318.7890
PHI5.05.87259.3960
WAS5.04.00636.4101
NFC North
CHI4.02.57204.1152
DET6.05.51198.8191
GB9.07.082411.3319
MIN4.04.27026.8324
NFC South
ATL3.05.00928.0147
CAR4.03.74755.9959
NO4.03.87246.1958
TB6.06.908011.0528
NFC West
ARI5.04.30896.8942
STL2.03.93196.2910
SF2.01.29732.0756
SEA6.06.958811.1341

No comments: