Tuesday, November 13, 2007

The Value of Homefield Advantage 2007 Week 10

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

HFA has fallen off considerably over the last few weeks. It's actually down to the really low 2006 level right now. Divisional games remain entirely the culprit. Only 40% of divisional games have been won by the home team this season. That is insanely low. And it will probably regress just in time for the Dolphins to face the Bills and Pats on the road but not in time for them to face the Jets at home.

All Games
Home Team Win %: 54.1667%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 1.8958

Home Team Win %: 60.0000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 4.2250

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 65.3061%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 3.7551

Home Team Win %: 40.0000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: -1.4545

No comments: