Predictions 2007 Week 10 and Accuracy Report

Quick Summary of Accuracy
LAST WEEK
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 11 out of 14
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 11 out of 14
Linear regression, unadjusted: 11 out of 14
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 11 out of 14

YEAR SO FAR
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 68.3673%
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 67.3469%
Linear regression, unadjusted: 64.2857%
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 65.3061%

Full accuracy numbers after the jump...

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
BUF @ MIA	3.8553	64.2827
CIN @ BAL	1.9052	57.4494
CLE @ PIT	8.6084	74.8731
JAX @ TEN	5.3398	66.3982
DEN @ KC	1.8680	55.6338
CHI @ OAK	3.0818	58.7006
IND @ SD	-3.2184	38.3310
DAL @ NYG	-1.6210	42.6420
PHI @ WAS	1.9044	58.5700
MIN @ GB	1.0149	52.1200
ATL @ CAR	2.4397	60.6941
STL @ NO	5.3002	67.7423
DET @ ARI	3.3235	58.0720
SF @ SEA	8.5509	76.6268

Predictions based on unadjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
BUF @ MIA	3.0651	60.5793
CIN @ BAL	4.1772	65.3470
CLE @ PIT	10.2338	79.1009
JAX @ TEN	4.5786	64.6440
DEN @ KC	4.4924	63.2503
CHI @ OAK	5.7344	66.0020
IND @ SD	-2.5486	39.7736
DAL @ NYG	-0.9974	44.9191
PHI @ WAS	2.0093	58.2472
MIN @ GB	1.2288	51.9927
ATL @ CAR	1.9809	60.2123
STL @ NO	4.8602	68.0511
DET @ ARI	1.2708	51.4377
SF @ SEA	8.9448	78.0981

OPPONENT ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 68.3673%
Mean absolute error: 11.2641 points
Correlation with result: 0.3742
% of games predicted as home team wins: 69.3878%

Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 67.3469%
Correlation with result: 0.3784
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.4490%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 90.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 55.5556
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 75.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 63.1579
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 80.0000

UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 64.2857%
Mean absolute error: 11.1503 points
Correlation with result: 0.3832
% of games predicted as home team wins: 65.3061%

Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 65.3061%
Correlation with result: 0.3883
% of games predicted as home team wins: 66.3265%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 66.6667
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 56.2500
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 47.6190
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 75.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 81.2500
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 42.8571
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000