Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Predictions 2007 Week 10 and Accuracy Report

Quick Summary of Accuracy
LAST WEEK
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 11 out of 14
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 11 out of 14
Linear regression, unadjusted: 11 out of 14
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 11 out of 14

YEAR SO FAR
Linear regression, opponent adjusted: 68.3673%
Logistic regression, opponent adjusted: 67.3469%
Linear regression, unadjusted: 64.2857%
Logistic regression, unadjusted: 65.3061%

Full accuracy numbers after the jump...

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.


















Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
BUF @ MIA3.855364.2827
CIN @ BAL1.905257.4494
CLE @ PIT8.608474.8731
JAX @ TEN5.339866.3982
DEN @ KC1.868055.6338
CHI @ OAK3.081858.7006
IND @ SD-3.218438.3310
DAL @ NYG-1.621042.6420
PHI @ WAS1.904458.5700
MIN @ GB1.014952.1200
ATL @ CAR2.439760.6941
STL @ NO5.300267.7423
DET @ ARI3.323558.0720
SF @ SEA8.550976.6268




















Predictions based on unadjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
BUF @ MIA3.065160.5793
CIN @ BAL4.177265.3470
CLE @ PIT10.233879.1009
JAX @ TEN4.578664.6440
DEN @ KC4.492463.2503
CHI @ OAK5.734466.0020
IND @ SD-2.548639.7736
DAL @ NYG-0.997444.9191
PHI @ WAS2.009358.2472
MIN @ GB1.228851.9927
ATL @ CAR1.980960.2123
STL @ NO4.860268.0511
DET @ ARI1.270851.4377
SF @ SEA8.944878.0981



OPPONENT ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 68.3673%
Mean absolute error: 11.2641 points
Correlation with result: 0.3742
% of games predicted as home team wins: 69.3878%

Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 67.3469%
Correlation with result: 0.3784
% of games predicted as home team wins: 72.4490%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 90.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 55.5556
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 75.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 63.1579
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 80.0000

UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 64.2857%
Mean absolute error: 11.1503 points
Correlation with result: 0.3832
% of games predicted as home team wins: 65.3061%

Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 65.3061%
Correlation with result: 0.3883
% of games predicted as home team wins: 66.3265%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 66.6667
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 56.2500
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 47.6190
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 75.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 81.2500
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 42.8571
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000

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