Monday, November 26, 2007

Power Rankings 2007 Week 12

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).




































Power Rankings, Opponent-adjusted
RankTeamExpected Wins
1NE11.2441
2DAL11.1332
3IND10.6209
4PIT9.9642
5TB9.9244
6GB9.3945
7MIN9.3234
8PHI9.0560
9WAS8.8586
10NYG8.7037
11SEA8.4958
12SD8.4589
13JAX8.3526
14TEN8.1060
15DEN8.0833
16CLE7.7783
17DET7.6137
18ARI7.6130
19MIA7.6014
20HOU7.5289
21CIN7.2008
22ATL7.1665
23NO6.9120
24KC6.9006
25CAR6.8935
26BUF6.8154
27BAL6.5092
28CHI6.4680
29STL6.2714
30NYJ5.7587
31SF5.6797
32OAK5.5694




































Power Rankings, Unadjusted
RankTeamExpected Wins
1NE11.3002
2DAL11.2019
3PIT10.7758
4IND10.3835
5TB9.9057
6MIN9.4825
7GB9.4620
8SEA9.0465
9PHI8.5803
10JAX8.4789
11NYG8.4063
12WAS8.2131
13SD8.1418
14DEN8.1411
15TEN8.0375
16ARI7.9962
17DET7.9144
18HOU7.8943
19CLE7.6587
20CIN7.2868
21BAL7.2055
22NO7.1142
23ATL7.0253
24KC6.9362
25CAR6.9291
26MIA6.8095
27STL6.3635
28BUF6.2475
29OAK5.9599
30CHI5.8376
31SF5.7099
32NYJ5.5542

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