Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 9

Night games added. Tables updated.

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in. By the way, Detroit's expected win total projects out to 10 wins. "The scary thing is that Jon Kitna was right!" "I know, kids. I'm scared, too." They're 3 or 4 wins from a playoff berth with 9 games to go. I won't brag yet, but it's lookin' good.

Home Team	Away Team	P(Home Team Won) (%)	Final Score Margin
ATL	SF	98.2607	4
BUF	CIN	95.6717	12
OAK	HOU	3.6142	-7
IND	NE	77.5329	-4
DET	DEN	97.8544	37
KC	GB	16.4408	-11
MIN	SD	99.8136	18
NO	JAX	72.0248	17
TB	ARI	98.3791	7
TEN	CAR	41.0465	13
NYJ	WAS	75.7410	-3
CLE	SEA	50.0208	3
PHI	DAL	0.0906	-21
PIT	BAL	99.9747	31

Indianapolis Cotls (vs. Patriots), Win Prob = 77.5329% The difference maker here was penalties. The Patriots' 146 penalty yards made for a 40% swing.
Carolina Panthers (@ Titans), Win Prob = 58.9535% Titans fumbled 4 times, lost only 2.
New York Jets (vs. Redskins), Win Prob = 75.7410% Redskins recovered their only fumble, and the Jets didn't throw a pick.

Team	Actual Wins	Expected Wins	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	4.0	3.8252	7.6503
MIA	0.0	2.5035	5.0071
NE	9.0	7.8664	13.9848
NYJ	1.0	2.3378	4.1562
AFC North
BAL	4.0	3.5742	7.1483
CIN	2.0	2.7055	5.4111
CLE	5.0	3.9085	7.8169
PIT	6.0	6.4040	12.8079
AFC South
HOU	4.0	3.8518	6.8477
IND	7.0	7.0863	14.1726
JAX	5.0	4.6696	9.3393
TEN	6.0	4.6565	9.3129
AFC West
DEN	3.0	2.7998	5.5997
KC	4.0	4.2095	8.4190
OAK	2.0	2.3150	4.6300
SD	4.0	4.2076	8.4152
NFC East
DAL	7.0	6.5936	13.1872
NYG	6.0	4.4191	8.8382
PHI	3.0	4.4252	8.8504
WAS	5.0	3.7527	7.5055
NFC North
CHI	3.0	1.4355	2.8710
DET	6.0	5.3768	10.7536
GB	7.0	5.2526	10.5052
MIN	3.0	3.6013	7.2025
NFC South
ATL	2.0	4.0701	8.1402
CAR	4.0	3.5078	7.0156
NO	4.0	3.6913	7.3827
TB	5.0	5.9208	10.5259
NFC West
ARI	3.0	2.5992	5.1984
STL	0.0	2.1616	4.3232
SF	2.0	1.1395	2.2791
SEA	4.0	5.1315	10.2631