Sunday, November 4, 2007

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 9

Night games added. Tables updated.

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in. By the way, Detroit's expected win total projects out to 10 wins. "The scary thing is that Jon Kitna was right!" "I know, kids. I'm scared, too." They're 3 or 4 wins from a playoff berth with 9 games to go. I won't brag yet, but it's lookin' good.

















Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
ATLSF98.26074
BUFCIN95.671712
OAKHOU3.6142-7
INDNE77.5329-4
DETDEN97.854437
KCGB16.4408-11
MINSD99.813618
NOJAX72.024817
TBARI98.37917
TENCAR41.046513
NYJWAS75.7410-3
CLESEA50.02083
PHIDAL0.0906-21
PITBAL99.974731


Indianapolis Cotls (vs. Patriots), Win Prob = 77.5329% The difference maker here was penalties. The Patriots' 146 penalty yards made for a 40% swing.
Carolina Panthers (@ Titans), Win Prob = 58.9535% Titans fumbled 4 times, lost only 2.
New York Jets (vs. Redskins), Win Prob = 75.7410% Redskins recovered their only fumble, and the Jets didn't throw a pick.




















































TeamActual WinsExpected WinsProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF4.03.82527.6503
MIA0.02.50355.0071
NE9.07.866413.9848
NYJ1.02.33784.1562
AFC North
BAL4.03.57427.1483
CIN2.02.70555.4111
CLE5.03.90857.8169
PIT6.06.404012.8079
AFC South
HOU4.03.85186.8477
IND7.07.086314.1726
JAX5.04.66969.3393
TEN6.04.65659.3129
AFC West
DEN3.02.79985.5997
KC4.04.20958.4190
OAK2.02.31504.6300
SD4.04.20768.4152
NFC East
DAL7.06.593613.1872
NYG6.04.41918.8382
PHI3.04.42528.8504
WAS5.03.75277.5055
NFC North
CHI3.01.43552.8710
DET6.05.376810.7536
GB7.05.252610.5052
MIN3.03.60137.2025
NFC South
ATL2.04.07018.1402
CAR4.03.50787.0156
NO4.03.69137.3827
TB5.05.920810.5259
NFC West
ARI3.02.59925.1984
STL0.02.16164.3232
SF2.01.13952.2791
SEA4.05.131510.2631

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