Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 12
The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in.
| Home Team | Away Team | P(Home Team Won) (%) | Final Score Margin |
| DET | GB | 20.3024 | -11 |
| DAL | NYJ | 98.7388 | 31 |
| ATL | IND | 33.2753 | -18 |
| TB | WAS | 37.0882 | 6 |
| CHI | DEN | 8.7371 | 3 |
| ARI | SF | 34.2316 | -6 |
| CIN | TEN | 95.8828 | 29 |
| CLE | HOU | 64.5756 | 10 |
| JAX | BUF | 97.9198 | 22 |
| NYG | MIN | 3.0502 | -24 |
| CAR | NO | 0.3645 | -25 |
| KC | OAK | 12.7736 | -3 |
| STL | SEA | 19.8848 | -5 |
| NE | PHI | 86.1318 | 3 |
| PIT | MIA | 76.6204 | 3 |
Teams that "should" have won but didn't
Washington Redskins (@ Bucs), Win Prob = 62.9118% Tampa Bay managed less than 4 yards per pass and gave up 3 sacks. Since they threw the ball 23 times, this resulted in a very high sack rate. Tampa Bay also recovered their only fumble.
Denver Broncos (@ Bears), Win Prob = 91.2629% Denver averaged 8.85 yards per pass play, while Chicago managed only 4.75 yards per pass play. Hester is the only reason Chicago has won in at least 3 of their wins this season by my count.
| Team | Actual Wins | Expected Wins | Projected Win Total | |
| AFC East | ||||
| BUF | 5.0 | 3.9245 | 5.7084 | |
| MIA | 0.0 | 4.1526 | 6.0402 | |
| NE | 11.0 | 9.7243 | 14.1444 | |
| NYJ | 2.0 | 3.2530 | 4.7316 | |
| AFC North | ||||
| BAL | 4.0 | 4.1137 | 5.9836 | |
| CIN | 4.0 | 4.8954 | 7.1205 | |
| CLE | 7.0 | 5.1098 | 7.4325 | |
| PIT | 8.0 | 8.2439 | 11.9911 | |
| AFC South | ||||
| HOU | 5.0 | 5.1295 | 7.4611 | |
| IND | 9.0 | 9.1084 | 13.2485 | |
| JAX | 8.0 | 7.2858 | 10.5975 | |
| TEN | 6.0 | 4.8496 | 7.0540 | |
| AFC West | ||||
| DEN | 5.0 | 5.4529 | 7.9315 | |
| KC | 4.0 | 5.1952 | 7.5566 | |
| OAK | 3.0 | 3.5263 | 5.1292 | |
| SD | 6.0 | 5.4317 | 7.9007 | |
| NFC East | ||||
| DAL | 10.0 | 9.2022 | 13.3850 | |
| NYG | 7.0 | 5.5236 | 8.0343 | |
| PHI | 5.0 | 6.0112 | 8.7436 | |
| WAS | 5.0 | 4.6354 | 6.7424 | |
| NFC North | ||||
| CHI | 5.0 | 2.6594 | 3.8682 | |
| DET | 6.0 | 5.7149 | 8.3126 | |
| GB | 10.0 | 7.8794 | 11.4609 | |
| MIN | 5.0 | 5.2397 | 7.6214 | |
| NFC South | ||||
| ATL | 3.0 | 5.3420 | 7.7701 | |
| CAR | 4.0 | 3.7511 | 5.4561 | |
| NO | 5.0 | 4.8687 | 7.0818 | |
| TB | 7.0 | 7.2789 | 10.5874 | |
| NFC West | ||||
| ARI | 5.0 | 4.6512 | 6.7654 | |
| STL | 2.0 | 4.1307 | 6.0083 | |
| SF | 3.0 | 1.9549 | 2.8436 | |
| SEA | 7.0 | 7.7600 | 11.2872 | |
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