Sunday, November 25, 2007

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 12

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in.


















Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
DETGB20.3024-11
DALNYJ98.738831
ATLIND33.2753-18
TBWAS37.08826
CHIDEN8.73713
ARISF34.2316-6
CINTEN95.882829
CLEHOU64.575610
JAXBUF97.919822
NYGMIN3.0502-24
CARNO0.3645-25
KCOAK12.7736-3
STLSEA19.8848-5
NEPHI86.13183
PITMIA76.62043


Teams that "should" have won but didn't
Washington Redskins (@ Bucs), Win Prob = 62.9118% Tampa Bay managed less than 4 yards per pass and gave up 3 sacks. Since they threw the ball 23 times, this resulted in a very high sack rate. Tampa Bay also recovered their only fumble.
Denver Broncos (@ Bears), Win Prob = 91.2629% Denver averaged 8.85 yards per pass play, while Chicago managed only 4.75 yards per pass play. Hester is the only reason Chicago has won in at least 3 of their wins this season by my count.




















































TeamActual WinsExpected WinsProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF5.03.92455.7084
MIA0.04.15266.0402
NE11.09.724314.1444
NYJ2.03.25304.7316
AFC North
BAL4.04.11375.9836
CIN4.04.89547.1205
CLE7.05.10987.4325
PIT8.08.243911.9911
AFC South
HOU5.05.12957.4611
IND9.09.108413.2485
JAX8.07.285810.5975
TEN6.04.84967.0540
AFC West
DEN5.05.45297.9315
KC4.05.19527.5566
OAK3.03.52635.1292
SD6.05.43177.9007
NFC East
DAL10.09.202213.3850
NYG7.05.52368.0343
PHI5.06.01128.7436
WAS5.04.63546.7424
NFC North
CHI5.02.65943.8682
DET6.05.71498.3126
GB10.07.879411.4609
MIN5.05.23977.6214
NFC South
ATL3.05.34207.7701
CAR4.03.75115.4561
NO5.04.86877.0818
TB7.07.278910.5874
NFC West
ARI5.04.65126.7654
STL2.04.13076.0083
SF3.01.95492.8436
SEA7.07.760011.2872

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