Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Predictions 2007 Week 12

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
PHI @ NE7.921974.1605
TEN @ CIN1.532154.2373
HOU @ CLE3.452560.7826
MIA @ PIT8.663275.3720
BUF @ JAX5.107666.4405
OAK @ KC7.121271.6851
BAL @ SD5.579369.3920
NYJ @ DAL15.223289.1438
MIN @ NYG3.081456.5293
DEN @ CHI0.678550.2349
GB @ DET-0.893349.3708
IND @ ATL-3.419938.2388
NO @ CAR4.242865.2461
WAS @ TB4.844866.3605
SF @ ARI7.237473.9324
SEA @ STL-1.624244.2316

Predictions based on unadjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
PHI @ NE9.076176.8020
TEN @ CIN1.459754.4186
HOU @ CLE2.604857.8192
MIA @ PIT11.814782.5801
BUF @ JAX6.686870.7531
OAK @ KC6.887470.2740
BAL @ SD3.791863.5789
NYJ @ DAL14.892688.9950
MIN @ NYG2.407853.0317
DEN @ CHI0.449947.0168
GB @ DET-0.196650.7409
IND @ ATL-2.587540.8327
NO @ CAR3.286164.0675
WAS @ TB5.998970.2880
SF @ ARI6.777173.0667
SEA @ STL-2.044243.2337

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