The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.
| Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats |
| Game | Predicted Final Score Margin | P(Home Team Wins) |
| PHI @ NE | 7.9219 | 74.1605 |
| TEN @ CIN | 1.5321 | 54.2373 |
| HOU @ CLE | 3.4525 | 60.7826 |
| MIA @ PIT | 8.6632 | 75.3720 |
| BUF @ JAX | 5.1076 | 66.4405 |
| OAK @ KC | 7.1212 | 71.6851 |
| BAL @ SD | 5.5793 | 69.3920 |
| NYJ @ DAL | 15.2232 | 89.1438 |
| MIN @ NYG | 3.0814 | 56.5293 |
| DEN @ CHI | 0.6785 | 50.2349 |
| GB @ DET | -0.8933 | 49.3708 |
| IND @ ATL | -3.4199 | 38.2388 |
| NO @ CAR | 4.2428 | 65.2461 |
| WAS @ TB | 4.8448 | 66.3605 |
| SF @ ARI | 7.2374 | 73.9324 |
| SEA @ STL | -1.6242 | 44.2316 |
| Predictions based on unadjusted stats |
| Game | Predicted Final Score Margin | P(Home Team Wins) |
| PHI @ NE | 9.0761 | 76.8020 |
| TEN @ CIN | 1.4597 | 54.4186 |
| HOU @ CLE | 2.6048 | 57.8192 |
| MIA @ PIT | 11.8147 | 82.5801 |
| BUF @ JAX | 6.6868 | 70.7531 |
| OAK @ KC | 6.8874 | 70.2740 |
| BAL @ SD | 3.7918 | 63.5789 |
| NYJ @ DAL | 14.8926 | 88.9950 |
| MIN @ NYG | 2.4078 | 53.0317 |
| DEN @ CHI | 0.4499 | 47.0168 |
| GB @ DET | -0.1966 | 50.7409 |
| IND @ ATL | -2.5875 | 40.8327 |
| NO @ CAR | 3.2861 | 64.0675 |
| WAS @ TB | 5.9989 | 70.2880 |
| SF @ ARI | 6.7771 | 73.0667 |
| SEA @ STL | -2.0442 | 43.2337 |
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