Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Power Rankings 2007 Week 10

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

New England is mediocre in run offense and defense according to yards per play. That is the sole reason they are #2 to Dallas. Indy and San Diego stay more or less in place despite sloppy games. Minnesota is still really high because Adrian Peterson has been so ridiculously good and so has their run defense. By yards per play, they are 43% above league average running the ball and 27% above league average stopping the run. They are 16% and 7% below average in pass offense and defense respectively. Philadelphia is at #9 and looks poised to make a comeback in the division, though the ranking seems to be based a lot on the strength of their running game. Similarly, Miami is considered a middle of the pack team with 4.6 yards per carry on offense and an improving but still sucky defense.



































Power Rankings, Opponent-adjusted
RankTeamExpected Wins
1DAL11.6155
2NE11.4932
3IND11.0721
4PIT10.4505
5TB10.0557
6MIN9.2326
7GB9.1011
8NYG9.0704
9PHI8.8011
10TEN8.7476
11SEA8.4169
12WAS8.3712
13JAX8.2691
14SD7.9571
15ARI7.9354
16CLE7.7619
17DEN7.7385
18MIA7.6025
19DET7.5167
20CAR7.4233
21ATL7.3070
22HOU7.2890
23BUF7.1928
24CIN7.0074
25BAL6.7075
26NO6.6808
27KC6.4052
28CHI6.3966
29STL6.2136
30SF5.5396
31NYJ5.3895
32OAK5.2385

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