Power Rankings 2007 Week 10

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

New England is mediocre in run offense and defense according to yards per play. That is the sole reason they are #2 to Dallas. Indy and San Diego stay more or less in place despite sloppy games. Minnesota is still really high because Adrian Peterson has been so ridiculously good and so has their run defense. By yards per play, they are 43% above league average running the ball and 27% above league average stopping the run. They are 16% and 7% below average in pass offense and defense respectively. Philadelphia is at #9 and looks poised to make a comeback in the division, though the ranking seems to be based a lot on the strength of their running game. Similarly, Miami is considered a middle of the pack team with 4.6 yards per carry on offense and an improving but still sucky defense.

Power Rankings, Opponent-adjusted
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	DAL	11.6155
2	NE	11.4932
3	IND	11.0721
4	PIT	10.4505
5	TB	10.0557
6	MIN	9.2326
7	GB	9.1011
8	NYG	9.0704
9	PHI	8.8011
10	TEN	8.7476
11	SEA	8.4169
12	WAS	8.3712
13	JAX	8.2691
14	SD	7.9571
15	ARI	7.9354
16	CLE	7.7619
17	DEN	7.7385
18	MIA	7.6025
19	DET	7.5167
20	CAR	7.4233
21	ATL	7.3070
22	HOU	7.2890
23	BUF	7.1928
24	CIN	7.0074
25	BAL	6.7075
26	NO	6.6808
27	KC	6.4052
28	CHI	6.3966
29	STL	6.2136
30	SF	5.5396
31	NYJ	5.3895
32	OAK	5.2385