Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Power Rankings 2007 Week 11

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).




































Power Rankings, Opponent-adjusted
RankTeamExpected Wins
1NE11.4795
2DAL11.3244
3IND10.7248
4TB10.2407
5PIT9.8901
6MIN9.1499
7GB9.0889
8NYG8.8950
9PHI8.8749
10WAS8.7871
11SEA8.3319
12TEN8.3209
13JAX8.1216
14SD8.1022
15DEN7.9506
16ARI7.8998
17DET7.7828
18CLE7.7737
19MIA7.5919
20HOU7.5603
21CAR7.3835
22BUF7.1744
23ATL7.0890
24CIN7.0321
25KC6.9455
26BAL6.7021
27CHI6.5708
28NO6.4245
29STL6.1375
30NYJ5.8191
31SF5.5370
32OAK5.2937




































Power Rankings, Unadjusted
RankTeamExpected Wins
1NE11.6398
2DAL11.1056
3PIT10.8020
4IND10.3668
5TB10.1863
6MIN9.4168
7GB9.1591
8SEA8.8782
9PHI8.6894
10NYG8.6627
11DET8.3091
12TEN8.2302
13WAS8.1641
14JAX8.1178
15HOU8.0090
16ARI7.8899
17SD7.8145
18DEN7.7899
19CLE7.5595
20BAL7.4997
21CAR7.3289
22ATL7.1751
23CIN7.0558
24KC7.0239
25MIA6.8786
26NO6.5305
27BUF6.4760
28STL6.4508
29CHI5.9604
30NYJ5.6965
31OAK5.5697
32SF5.5634

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