Power Rankings 2007 Week 4

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The first power rankings use linear regression to predict the final score margins of each such game. The score you see along with the rankings is the sum of all of those expected margins.

The second power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

From here on out, the power rankings will be based on the adjusted VOLA (value over league average) stats.

Power Rankings, Linear Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Point Differential
1	IND	5.9404
2	NE	5.6201
3	DAL	5.5001
4	SEA	3.3232
5	NYG	3.2484
6	TB	2.7994
7	DEN	2.7454
8	PHI	2.4690
9	ARI	2.3274
10	HOU	2.2301
11	JAX	1.5286
12	MIN	1.4882
13	WAS	1.2148
14	PIT	1.1036
15	MIA	0.3592
16	TEN	0.3514
17	CIN	0.2501
18	ATL	-0.4528
19	GB	-0.6509
20	BAL	-0.6928
21	CLE	-1.3041
22	DET	-1.5032
23	OAK	-1.7889
24	KC	-1.8304
25	CAR	-2.0165
26	SD	-3.1041
27	BUF	-4.1486
28	NYJ	-4.2575
29	CHI	-4.3569
30	NO	-5.1338
31	STL	-5.5779
32	SF	-5.6809

Power Rankings, Logistic Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	IND	11.0179
2	DAL	10.8174
3	NE	10.6105
4	SEA	9.7515
5	NYG	9.6060
6	DEN	9.5204
7	ARI	9.3961
8	PHI	9.3928
9	TB	9.3426
10	HOU	9.1012
11	MIN	8.9477
12	JAX	8.7916
13	WAS	8.6958
14	PIT	8.6907
15	MIA	8.4258
16	TEN	8.2059
17	CIN	8.0082
18	DET	7.5299
19	ATL	7.4956
20	BAL	7.4924
21	GB	7.4798
22	CLE	7.3255
23	OAK	7.1399
24	KC	7.0549
25	CAR	6.9271
26	SD	6.1265
27	BUF	5.8696
28	CHI	5.8082
29	NYJ	5.6858
30	SF	5.3615
31	NO	5.1985
32	STL	5.1828

Bonus Rankings, based on unadjusted stats

Power Rankings, Linear Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Point Differential
1	NE	10.4453
2	DAL	9.4955
3	IND	6.5819
4	TB	6.0274
5	PIT	5.4543
6	DEN	4.5223
7	SEA	3.1511
8	PHI	1.7881
9	ARI	1.6081
10	MIN	1.5651
11	TEN	1.5560
12	HOU	1.3897
13	WAS	0.7357
14	DET	0.4886
15	NYG	0.4728
16	JAX	0.2966
17	BAL	0.2485
18	KC	0.1948
19	GB	-0.5833
20	CLE	-1.2640
21	MIA	-1.2768
22	ATL	-1.3180
23	CAR	-1.7562
24	OAK	-2.1185
25	CIN	-2.4856
26	SD	-4.0176
27	NYJ	-4.3221
28	CHI	-6.0643
29	SF	-6.5469
30	STL	-6.8063
31	BUF	-7.4840
32	NO	-9.9784

Power Rankings, Logistic Regression
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	12.5345
2	DAL	12.3302
3	IND	11.1651
4	TB	10.9552
5	PIT	10.6023
6	DEN	10.2181
7	SEA	9.5226
8	PHI	9.0219
9	MIN	9.0178
10	ARI	8.9989
11	TEN	8.7841
12	HOU	8.7401
13	DET	8.4257
14	WAS	8.3782
15	JAX	8.2485
16	NYG	8.1665
17	KC	8.1520
18	BAL	7.9735
19	MIA	7.6866
20	GB	7.5178
21	CLE	7.4590
22	CAR	7.2069
23	ATL	6.9473
24	OAK	6.9182
25	CIN	6.6996
26	SD	5.8440
27	NYJ	5.7809
28	CHI	5.0922
29	SF	5.0513
30	STL	4.6379
31	BUF	4.5527
32	NO	3.3702