Power Rankings 2007 Week 4
The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?
The first power rankings use linear regression to predict the final score margins of each such game. The score you see along with the rankings is the sum of all of those expected margins.
The second power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).
From here on out, the power rankings will be based on the adjusted VOLA (value over league average) stats.Power Rankings, Linear Regression Rank Team Expected Point Differential 1 IND 5.9404 2 NE 5.6201 3 DAL 5.5001 4 SEA 3.3232 5 NYG 3.2484 6 TB 2.7994 7 DEN 2.7454 8 PHI 2.4690 9 ARI 2.3274 10 HOU 2.2301 11 JAX 1.5286 12 MIN 1.4882 13 WAS 1.2148 14 PIT 1.1036 15 MIA 0.3592 16 TEN 0.3514 17 CIN 0.2501 18 ATL -0.4528 19 GB -0.6509 20 BAL -0.6928 21 CLE -1.3041 22 DET -1.5032 23 OAK -1.7889 24 KC -1.8304 25 CAR -2.0165 26 SD -3.1041 27 BUF -4.1486 28 NYJ -4.2575 29 CHI -4.3569 30 NO -5.1338 31 STL -5.5779 32 SF -5.6809 Power Rankings, Logistic Regression Rank Team Expected Wins 1 IND 11.0179 2 DAL 10.8174 3 NE 10.6105 4 SEA 9.7515 5 NYG 9.6060 6 DEN 9.5204 7 ARI 9.3961 8 PHI 9.3928 9 TB 9.3426 10 HOU 9.1012 11 MIN 8.9477 12 JAX 8.7916 13 WAS 8.6958 14 PIT 8.6907 15 MIA 8.4258 16 TEN 8.2059 17 CIN 8.0082 18 DET 7.5299 19 ATL 7.4956 20 BAL 7.4924 21 GB 7.4798 22 CLE 7.3255 23 OAK 7.1399 24 KC 7.0549 25 CAR 6.9271 26 SD 6.1265 27 BUF 5.8696 28 CHI 5.8082 29 NYJ 5.6858 30 SF 5.3615 31 NO 5.1985 32 STL 5.1828
Bonus Rankings, based on unadjusted statsPower Rankings, Linear Regression Rank Team Expected Point Differential 1 NE 10.4453 2 DAL 9.4955 3 IND 6.5819 4 TB 6.0274 5 PIT 5.4543 6 DEN 4.5223 7 SEA 3.1511 8 PHI 1.7881 9 ARI 1.6081 10 MIN 1.5651 11 TEN 1.5560 12 HOU 1.3897 13 WAS 0.7357 14 DET 0.4886 15 NYG 0.4728 16 JAX 0.2966 17 BAL 0.2485 18 KC 0.1948 19 GB -0.5833 20 CLE -1.2640 21 MIA -1.2768 22 ATL -1.3180 23 CAR -1.7562 24 OAK -2.1185 25 CIN -2.4856 26 SD -4.0176 27 NYJ -4.3221 28 CHI -6.0643 29 SF -6.5469 30 STL -6.8063 31 BUF -7.4840 32 NO -9.9784 Power Rankings, Logistic Regression Rank Team Expected Wins 1 NE 12.5345 2 DAL 12.3302 3 IND 11.1651 4 TB 10.9552 5 PIT 10.6023 6 DEN 10.2181 7 SEA 9.5226 8 PHI 9.0219 9 MIN 9.0178 10 ARI 8.9989 11 TEN 8.7841 12 HOU 8.7401 13 DET 8.4257 14 WAS 8.3782 15 JAX 8.2485 16 NYG 8.1665 17 KC 8.1520 18 BAL 7.9735 19 MIA 7.6866 20 GB 7.5178 21 CLE 7.4590 22 CAR 7.2069 23 ATL 6.9473 24 OAK 6.9182 25 CIN 6.6996 26 SD 5.8440 27 NYJ 5.7809 28 CHI 5.0922 29 SF 5.0513 30 STL 4.6379 31 BUF 4.5527 32 NO 3.3702
2 comments:
Glad to see you have Denver pretty high. I'm pretty far out on a ledge with them at #2.
They're top 5 in unadjusted rush offense, pass offense, and pass defense. So I'm not surprised. It's funny that while their yards per play numbers are good, DVOA has them really low.
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