Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Power Rankings 2007 Week 4

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The first power rankings use linear regression to predict the final score margins of each such game. The score you see along with the rankings is the sum of all of those expected margins.

The second power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

From here on out, the power rankings will be based on the adjusted VOLA (value over league average) stats.




































Power Rankings, Linear Regression
RankTeamExpected Point Differential
1IND5.9404
2NE5.6201
3DAL5.5001
4SEA3.3232
5NYG3.2484
6TB2.7994
7DEN2.7454
8PHI2.4690
9ARI2.3274
10HOU2.2301
11JAX1.5286
12MIN1.4882
13WAS1.2148
14PIT1.1036
15MIA0.3592
16TEN0.3514
17CIN0.2501
18ATL-0.4528
19GB-0.6509
20BAL-0.6928
21CLE-1.3041
22DET-1.5032
23OAK-1.7889
24KC-1.8304
25CAR-2.0165
26SD-3.1041
27BUF-4.1486
28NYJ-4.2575
29CHI-4.3569
30NO-5.1338
31STL-5.5779
32SF-5.6809




































Power Rankings, Logistic Regression
RankTeamExpected Wins
1IND11.0179
2DAL10.8174
3NE10.6105
4SEA9.7515
5NYG9.6060
6DEN9.5204
7ARI9.3961
8PHI9.3928
9TB9.3426
10HOU9.1012
11MIN8.9477
12JAX8.7916
13WAS8.6958
14PIT8.6907
15MIA8.4258
16TEN8.2059
17CIN8.0082
18DET7.5299
19ATL7.4956
20BAL7.4924
21GB7.4798
22CLE7.3255
23OAK7.1399
24KC7.0549
25CAR6.9271
26SD6.1265
27BUF5.8696
28CHI5.8082
29NYJ5.6858
30SF5.3615
31NO5.1985
32STL5.1828




Bonus Rankings, based on unadjusted stats


































Power Rankings, Linear Regression
RankTeamExpected Point Differential
1NE10.4453
2DAL9.4955
3IND6.5819
4TB6.0274
5PIT5.4543
6DEN4.5223
7SEA3.1511
8PHI1.7881
9ARI1.6081
10MIN1.5651
11TEN1.5560
12HOU1.3897
13WAS0.7357
14DET0.4886
15NYG0.4728
16JAX0.2966
17BAL0.2485
18KC0.1948
19GB-0.5833
20CLE-1.2640
21MIA-1.2768
22ATL-1.3180
23CAR-1.7562
24OAK-2.1185
25CIN-2.4856
26SD-4.0176
27NYJ-4.3221
28CHI-6.0643
29SF-6.5469
30STL-6.8063
31BUF-7.4840
32NO-9.9784




































Power Rankings, Logistic Regression
RankTeamExpected Wins
1NE12.5345
2DAL12.3302
3IND11.1651
4TB10.9552
5PIT10.6023
6DEN10.2181
7SEA9.5226
8PHI9.0219
9MIN9.0178
10ARI8.9989
11TEN8.7841
12HOU8.7401
13DET8.4257
14WAS8.3782
15JAX8.2485
16NYG8.1665
17KC8.1520
18BAL7.9735
19MIA7.6866
20GB7.5178
21CLE7.4590
22CAR7.2069
23ATL6.9473
24OAK6.9182
25CIN6.6996
26SD5.8440
27NYJ5.7809
28CHI5.0922
29SF5.0513
30STL4.6379
31BUF4.5527
32NO3.3702

2 comments:

Brian Burke said...

Glad to see you have Denver pretty high. I'm pretty far out on a ledge with them at #2.

Derek said...

They're top 5 in unadjusted rush offense, pass offense, and pass defense. So I'm not surprised. It's funny that while their yards per play numbers are good, DVOA has them really low.