Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 8

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in. By the way, Detroit's expected win total projects out to 10 wins. "The scary thing is that Jon Kitna was right!" "I know, kids. I'm scared, too." They're 3 or 4 wins from a playoff berth with 9 games to go. I won't brag yet, but it's lookin' good.

Home Team	Away Team	P(Home Team Won) (%)	Final Score Margin
STL	CLE	38.2935	-7
CHI	DET	1.9709	-9
SF	NO	1.4568	-21
SD	HOU	99.4563	25
CAR	IND	1.7713	-24
MIA	NYG	84.6793	-3
MIN	PHI	7.4477	-7
CIN	PIT	10.8698	-11
TEN	OAK	92.0623	4
NYJ	BUF	1.4476	-10
TB	JAX	59.7037	-1
NE	WAS	99.8736	45
DEN	GB	5.5953	-6

Teams that "should have" won but didn't

Miami Dolphins (vs. Giants), Win Prob = 84.6973% Pardon my language, but **** me... Miami loses 2 of their 4 fumbles; the Giants lose only 1 of their 3 fumbles, one of which bounced directly into their O-lineman's hands. The Giants had a strong rushing game (5.1 ypc vs. 4.1), but Eli Manning managed only 2.13 yards/pass compared to Lemon's 4.45 yards/pass. So despite the lack of Ronnie Brown, they managed to outplay the Giants and still lose. This team is not an 0-16 team, not even a 1-15 team, but their terrible "luck" might make them 1-15. And by luck, I just mean that their good plays are coming more regularly but they're not coming in large enough bunches to amount to overall success.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Jaguars), Win Prob = 59.7037% 6.47 yards/carry vs. 3.02. 5.79 yards/pass vs. 4.78. The Bucs, however, threw 3 picks. The Jags fumbled once but recovered it. That was the difference in the game.

Even without the 82-yard pass, Green Bay is pegged as having had a 76% chance of winning that game.

Team	Actual Wins	Expected Wins	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	3.0	2.8684	6.5564
MIA	0.0	2.5035	5.0071
NE	8.0	7.6418	15.2835
NYJ	1.0	1.5804	3.1609
AFC North
BAL	4.0	3.5739	8.1690
CIN	2.0	2.6622	6.0851
CLE	4.0	3.4082	7.7903
PIT	5.0	5.4042	12.3525
AFC South
HOU	3.0	2.8880	5.7759
IND	7.0	6.3110	14.4251
JAX	5.0	4.3899	10.0340
TEN	5.0	4.2460	9.7051
AFC West
DEN	3.0	2.7784	6.3506
KC	4.0	4.0451	9.2460
OAK	2.0	2.2788	5.2088
SD	4.0	4.2057	9.6131
NFC East
DAL	6.0	5.5945	12.7875
NYG	6.0	4.4191	8.8382
PHI	3.0	4.4243	10.1127
WAS	4.0	3.5101	8.0232
NFC North
CHI	3.0	1.4355	2.8710
DET	5.0	4.3983	10.0532
GB	6.0	4.4170	10.0960
MIN	2.0	2.6031	5.9500
NFC South
ATL	1.0	3.0875	7.0572
CAR	4.0	2.9183	6.6703
NO	3.0	2.9711	6.7911
TB	4.0	4.9371	9.8741
NFC West
ARI	3.0	2.5830	5.9040
STL	0.0	2.1616	4.3232
SF	2.0	1.1221	2.5649
SEA	4.0	4.6317	10.5868