Sunday, October 28, 2007

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 8

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in. By the way, Detroit's expected win total projects out to 10 wins. "The scary thing is that Jon Kitna was right!" "I know, kids. I'm scared, too." They're 3 or 4 wins from a playoff berth with 9 games to go. I won't brag yet, but it's lookin' good.

















Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
STLCLE38.2935-7
CHIDET1.9709-9
SFNO1.4568-21
SDHOU99.456325
CARIND1.7713-24
MIANYG84.6793-3
MINPHI7.4477-7
CINPIT10.8698-11
TENOAK92.06234
NYJBUF1.4476-10
TBJAX59.7037-1
NEWAS99.873645
DENGB5.5953-6


Teams that "should have" won but didn't

Miami Dolphins (vs. Giants), Win Prob = 84.6973% Pardon my language, but **** me... Miami loses 2 of their 4 fumbles; the Giants lose only 1 of their 3 fumbles, one of which bounced directly into their O-lineman's hands. The Giants had a strong rushing game (5.1 ypc vs. 4.1), but Eli Manning managed only 2.13 yards/pass compared to Lemon's 4.45 yards/pass. So despite the lack of Ronnie Brown, they managed to outplay the Giants and still lose. This team is not an 0-16 team, not even a 1-15 team, but their terrible "luck" might make them 1-15. And by luck, I just mean that their good plays are coming more regularly but they're not coming in large enough bunches to amount to overall success.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Jaguars), Win Prob = 59.7037% 6.47 yards/carry vs. 3.02. 5.79 yards/pass vs. 4.78. The Bucs, however, threw 3 picks. The Jags fumbled once but recovered it. That was the difference in the game.

Even without the 82-yard pass, Green Bay is pegged as having had a 76% chance of winning that game.





















































TeamActual WinsExpected WinsProjected Win Total
AFC East
BUF3.02.86846.5564
MIA0.02.50355.0071
NE8.07.641815.2835
NYJ1.01.58043.1609
AFC North
BAL4.03.57398.1690
CIN2.02.66226.0851
CLE4.03.40827.7903
PIT5.05.404212.3525
AFC South
HOU3.02.88805.7759
IND7.06.311014.4251
JAX5.04.389910.0340
TEN5.04.24609.7051
AFC West
DEN3.02.77846.3506
KC4.04.04519.2460
OAK2.02.27885.2088
SD4.04.20579.6131
NFC East
DAL6.05.594512.7875
NYG6.04.41918.8382
PHI3.04.424310.1127
WAS4.03.51018.0232
NFC North
CHI3.01.43552.8710
DET5.04.398310.0532
GB6.04.417010.0960
MIN2.02.60315.9500
NFC South
ATL1.03.08757.0572
CAR4.02.91836.6703
NO3.02.97116.7911
TB4.04.93719.8741
NFC West
ARI3.02.58305.9040
STL0.02.16164.3232
SF2.01.12212.5649
SEA4.04.631710.5868

1 comment:

Matt Matros said...

Looks like you've projected the Bears to win fewer games than they've already won...