Tuesday, October 30, 2007

The Value of Homefield Advantage 2007 Week 8

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

Home field advantage dropped off 3% after this week, with interconference HFA taking the biggest hit. Only 41% of divisional games have been won by the home team so far, dropping even further from last week. Bizarre. HFA is still strong in interdivisional games, though (good news for Indy).

All Games
Home Team Win %: 55.1724%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 1.6983

Home Team Win %: 59.3750%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 3.3125

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 65.8537%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 4.0976

Home Team Win %: 41.8605%
Avg. Final Score Margin: -1.7907

No comments: