Predictions 2007 Week 6

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Quick recap of last week's predictions: The logistic regression based on adjusted stats was 12-2 last week. For weeks 4-5, the logistic regression predictions have gone 20-8 (71.45%).

Based on opponent-adjusted stats

Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
PHI @ NYJ	-4.6170	33.7208
STL @ BAL	4.0908	63.7903
MIA @ CLE	2.2718	55.0079
HOU @ JAX	2.8508	59.0307
CIN @ KC	3.0792	61.0696
OAK @ SD	8.1008	70.9335
NE @ DAL	1.0400	54.5029
MIN @ CHI	-2.2015	40.3186
WAS @ GB	-0.4031	48.9549
NYG @ ATL	-1.1793	45.3254
TEN @ TB	4.6326	67.4386
CAR @ ARI	5.6059	68.3911
NO @ SEA	10.1349	82.4083

Based on unadjusted stats

Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
PHI @ NYJ	-3.8739	35.8694
STL @ BAL	6.5207	72.8809
MIA @ CLE	3.5836	58.0139
HOU @ JAX	3.4549	61.3604
CIN @ KC	4.0514	65.2268
OAK @ SD	7.4264	68.7658
NE @ DAL	2.8588	59.1881
MIN @ CHI	-4.1166	32.9111
WAS @ GB	-1.2891	46.2764
NYG @ ATL	0.1560	49.5781
TEN @ TB	4.9951	70.1540
CAR @ ARI	3.4412	63.8702
NO @ SEA	11.3772	85.1483

With interconference home teams being so strong, I'd take Dallas over New England, at least to beat the spread. Same goes for TEN@TB and STL@BAL. You might also want to stay away from PHI@NYJ based on that and the Eagles' erratic performance. Maybe St. Louis will win and the Jets will lose. Or you could just trust the stats.

Watch out for away team upsets in HOU@JAX and OAK@SD given how 55% of intradivision games have been won by the away team so far (check out the Homefield Advantage article I posted today). Based on this, I'm also pretty confident in the Minnesota pick. Plus, the Bears suck.