Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 7
Night games, commentary, and expected wins table added.
The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table to be added after the Monday night game. The first table will be updated as more box scores come in.
| Home Team | Away Team | P(Home Team Won) (%) | Final Score Margin |
| BUF | BAL | 77.4758 | 5 |
| DET | TB | 64.6620 | 7 |
| OAK | KC | 33.6400 | -2 |
| SEA | STL | 97.9805 | 27 |
| MIA | NE | 1.2794 | -21 |
| NO | ATL | 71.4581 | 6 |
| NYG | SF | 97.3014 | 18 |
| HOU | TEN | 7.1356 | -2 |
| WAS | ARI | 60.5303 | 2 |
| PHI | CHI | 61.6652 | -3 |
| CIN | NYJ | 97.8911 | 7 |
| DAL | MIN | 97.7167 | 10 |
| DEN | PIT | 40.1822 | 3 |
| JAX | IND | 2.9836 | -22 |
Teams that "should have" won but didn't
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Bears), Win Prob = 61.6652% Astoundingly, Chicago had a better passing game than the Eagles (7.48 yards/pass vs. 5.7), but Chicago's one fumble (which they recovered) probably a large factor in this probability (without it, P(Eagles win) goes down to about 48%). Philly was much better in the running game (4.92 yards/rush vs. 3.23). But given that the game turned on that one recovered fumble, it's not surprising the game ended up being won by 3 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Broncos), Win Prob = 59.8178% Denver recovered both of their fumbles. Otherwise, Denver did indeed outperform Pittsburgh.
| Team | Actual Wins | Expected Wins | Projected Win Total | |
| AFC East | ||||
| BUF | 2.0 | 1.8829 | 5.0211 | |
| MIA | 0.0 | 1.6568 | 3.7869 | |
| NE | 7.0 | 6.6430 | 15.1841 | |
| NYJ | 1.0 | 1.5660 | 3.5793 | |
| AFC North | ||||
| BAL | 4.0 | 3.5739 | 8.1690 | |
| CIN | 2.0 | 2.5535 | 6.8094 | |
| CLE | 3.0 | 2.7912 | 7.4431 | |
| PIT | 4.0 | 4.5129 | 12.0345 | |
| AFC South | ||||
| HOU | 3.0 | 2.8825 | 6.5886 | |
| IND | 6.0 | 5.3287 | 14.2098 | |
| JAX | 4.0 | 3.9869 | 10.6318 | |
| TEN | 4.0 | 3.3254 | 8.8676 | |
| AFC West | ||||
| DEN | 3.0 | 2.7224 | 7.2598 | |
| KC | 4.0 | 4.0451 | 9.2460 | |
| OAK | 2.0 | 2.1995 | 5.8652 | |
| SD | 3.0 | 3.2112 | 8.5631 | |
| NFC East | ||||
| DAL | 6.0 | 5.5945 | 12.7875 | |
| NYG | 5.0 | 4.2659 | 9.7506 | |
| PHI | 2.0 | 3.4988 | 9.3300 | |
| WAS | 4.0 | 3.5089 | 9.3570 | |
| NFC North | ||||
| CHI | 3.0 | 1.4158 | 3.2361 | |
| DET | 4.0 | 3.4180 | 9.1146 | |
| GB | 5.0 | 3.4729 | 9.2612 | |
| MIN | 2.0 | 2.5287 | 6.7431 | |
| NFC South | ||||
| ATL | 1.0 | 3.0875 | 7.0572 | |
| CAR | 4.0 | 2.9005 | 7.7348 | |
| NO | 2.0 | 1.9857 | 5.2951 | |
| TB | 4.0 | 4.3400 | 9.9200 | |
| NFC West | ||||
| ARI | 3.0 | 2.5830 | 5.9040 | |
| STL | 0.0 | 1.7787 | 4.0656 | |
| SF | 2.0 | 1.1076 | 2.9535 | |
| SEA | 4.0 | 4.6317 | 10.5868 | |
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