Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 12

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in.

Home Team	Away Team	P(Home Team Won) (%)	Final Score Margin
DET	GB	20.3024	-11
DAL	NYJ	98.7388	31
ATL	IND	33.2753	-18
TB	WAS	37.0882	6
CHI	DEN	8.7371	3
ARI	SF	34.2316	-6
CIN	TEN	95.8828	29
CLE	HOU	64.5756	10
JAX	BUF	97.9198	22
NYG	MIN	3.0502	-24
CAR	NO	0.3645	-25
KC	OAK	12.7736	-3
STL	SEA	19.8848	-5
NE	PHI	86.1318	3
PIT	MIA	76.6204	3

Teams that "should" have won but didn't
Washington Redskins (@ Bucs), Win Prob = 62.9118% Tampa Bay managed less than 4 yards per pass and gave up 3 sacks. Since they threw the ball 23 times, this resulted in a very high sack rate. Tampa Bay also recovered their only fumble.
Denver Broncos (@ Bears), Win Prob = 91.2629% Denver averaged 8.85 yards per pass play, while Chicago managed only 4.75 yards per pass play. Hester is the only reason Chicago has won in at least 3 of their wins this season by my count.

Team	Actual Wins	Expected Wins	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	5.0	3.9245	5.7084
MIA	0.0	4.1526	6.0402
NE	11.0	9.7243	14.1444
NYJ	2.0	3.2530	4.7316
AFC North
BAL	4.0	4.1137	5.9836
CIN	4.0	4.8954	7.1205
CLE	7.0	5.1098	7.4325
PIT	8.0	8.2439	11.9911
AFC South
HOU	5.0	5.1295	7.4611
IND	9.0	9.1084	13.2485
JAX	8.0	7.2858	10.5975
TEN	6.0	4.8496	7.0540
AFC West
DEN	5.0	5.4529	7.9315
KC	4.0	5.1952	7.5566
OAK	3.0	3.5263	5.1292
SD	6.0	5.4317	7.9007
NFC East
DAL	10.0	9.2022	13.3850
NYG	7.0	5.5236	8.0343
PHI	5.0	6.0112	8.7436
WAS	5.0	4.6354	6.7424
NFC North
CHI	5.0	2.6594	3.8682
DET	6.0	5.7149	8.3126
GB	10.0	7.8794	11.4609
MIN	5.0	5.2397	7.6214
NFC South
ATL	3.0	5.3420	7.7701
CAR	4.0	3.7511	5.4561
NO	5.0	4.8687	7.0818
TB	7.0	7.2789	10.5874
NFC West
ARI	5.0	4.6512	6.7654
STL	2.0	4.1307	6.0083
SF	3.0	1.9549	2.8436
SEA	7.0	7.7600	11.2872

Read More......

Predictions 2007 Week 12

The predictions are based on yards per play on rushing and passing plays (sacks and sack yards included), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards per game, and fumble and interception rates. The models are trained on the 1996-2006 seasons. Linear regression predicts the final score margin (home team points - away team points). Logistic regression estimates the probability that the home team will win.

Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
PHI @ NE	7.9219	74.1605
TEN @ CIN	1.5321	54.2373
HOU @ CLE	3.4525	60.7826
MIA @ PIT	8.6632	75.3720
BUF @ JAX	5.1076	66.4405
OAK @ KC	7.1212	71.6851
BAL @ SD	5.5793	69.3920
NYJ @ DAL	15.2232	89.1438
MIN @ NYG	3.0814	56.5293
DEN @ CHI	0.6785	50.2349
GB @ DET	-0.8933	49.3708
IND @ ATL	-3.4199	38.2388
NO @ CAR	4.2428	65.2461
WAS @ TB	4.8448	66.3605
SF @ ARI	7.2374	73.9324
SEA @ STL	-1.6242	44.2316

Predictions based on unadjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
PHI @ NE	9.0761	76.8020
TEN @ CIN	1.4597	54.4186
HOU @ CLE	2.6048	57.8192
MIA @ PIT	11.8147	82.5801
BUF @ JAX	6.6868	70.7531
OAK @ KC	6.8874	70.2740
BAL @ SD	3.7918	63.5789
NYJ @ DAL	14.8926	88.9950
MIN @ NYG	2.4078	53.0317
DEN @ CHI	0.4499	47.0168
GB @ DET	-0.1966	50.7409
IND @ ATL	-2.5875	40.8327
NO @ CAR	3.2861	64.0675
WAS @ TB	5.9989	70.2880
SF @ ARI	6.7771	73.0667
SEA @ STL	-2.0442	43.2337

Read More......

The Value of Homefield Advantage 2007 Week 11

One of the things I've learned in my football research is that the value of home-field advantage varies pretty widely from year to year, especially with interconference games. Because prediction systems tend to have a big bias towards the home team, this can have a large impact on accuracy. So throughout the season, I'll be keeping track of home team winning percentage and average final score margin (home team points - away team points) for interconference, interdivision, and intradivision matchups. If you're interested in that sort of thing, it can help you with betting on the spread (hint).

All Games
Home Team Win %: 55.0000%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 1.6563

Interconference
Home Team Win %: 61.3636%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 4.3409

Interdivision, Intraconference
Home Team Win %: 67.8571%
Avg. Final Score Margin: 4.0357

Intradivsion
Home Team Win %: 38.3333%
Avg. Final Score Margin: -2.5333

Read More......

Power Rankings 2007 Week 11

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).

Power Rankings, Opponent-adjusted
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	11.4795
2	DAL	11.3244
3	IND	10.7248
4	TB	10.2407
5	PIT	9.8901
6	MIN	9.1499
7	GB	9.0889
8	NYG	8.8950
9	PHI	8.8749
10	WAS	8.7871
11	SEA	8.3319
12	TEN	8.3209
13	JAX	8.1216
14	SD	8.1022
15	DEN	7.9506
16	ARI	7.8998
17	DET	7.7828
18	CLE	7.7737
19	MIA	7.5919
20	HOU	7.5603
21	CAR	7.3835
22	BUF	7.1744
23	ATL	7.0890
24	CIN	7.0321
25	KC	6.9455
26	BAL	6.7021
27	CHI	6.5708
28	NO	6.4245
29	STL	6.1375
30	NYJ	5.8191
31	SF	5.5370
32	OAK	5.2937

Power Rankings, Unadjusted
Rank	Team	Expected Wins
1	NE	11.6398
2	DAL	11.1056
3	PIT	10.8020
4	IND	10.3668
5	TB	10.1863
6	MIN	9.4168
7	GB	9.1591
8	SEA	8.8782
9	PHI	8.6894
10	NYG	8.6627
11	DET	8.3091
12	TEN	8.2302
13	WAS	8.1641
14	JAX	8.1178
15	HOU	8.0090
16	ARI	7.8899
17	SD	7.8145
18	DEN	7.7899
19	CLE	7.5595
20	BAL	7.4997
21	CAR	7.3289
22	ATL	7.1751
23	CIN	7.0558
24	KC	7.0239
25	MIA	6.8786
26	NO	6.5305
27	BUF	6.4760
28	STL	6.4508
29	CHI	5.9604
30	NYJ	5.6965
31	OAK	5.5697
32	SF	5.5634

Read More......

Projected Final Standings 2007 Week 11

Using the projected win probabilities from the logistic regression power rankings, I estimated which games each team would win on the rest of their respective schedules. And then I summed the projected wins with the actual wins so far to get their projected win totals. The teams are sorted by division.

Projected Final Standings
Team	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	6
MIA	3
NE	16
NYJ	3
AFC North
BAL	4
CIN	6
CLE	10
PIT	12
AFC South
HOU	7
IND	14
JAX	10
TEN	9
AFC West
DEN	8
KC	7
OAK	2
SD	9
NFC East
DAL	15
NYG	11
PHI	9
WAS	7
NFC North
CHI	6
DET	7
GB	14
MIN	8
NFC South
ATL	4
CAR	6
NO	5
TB	12
NFC West
ARI	9
STL	3
SF	3
SEA	11

Read More......

Stats (Raw and VOLA) 2007 Week 11

This is the data I use to make my predictions and power rankings. Below are the tables for the raw stats and the values over league average for all of the inputs I use. Rush and pass stats are yards per play. See for yourself where your team's strengths and weaknesses are.

Rush offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0188)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	MIN	47.5560	5.9300
2	DEN	15.9940	4.6616
3	PHI	14.4980	4.6015
4	MIA	12.3180	4.5138
5	NYG	9.4509	4.3986
6	DAL	7.8874	4.3358
7	PIT	7.6316	4.3255
8	CAR	4.9450	4.2175
9	OAK	4.3325	4.1929
10	NE	3.7841	4.1709
11	JAX	3.7657	4.1701
12	TB	2.5214	4.1201
13	SF	2.3237	4.1122
14	CLE	1.0810	4.0623
15	IND	0.9956	4.0588
16	BAL	0.7075	4.0472
17	WAS	0.4149	4.0355
18	SD	-0.4681	4.0000
19	TEN	-0.5396	3.9971
20	DET	-3.8442	3.8643
21	ATL	-7.2634	3.7269
22	NYJ	-7.3132	3.7249
23	BUF	-7.4608	3.7190
24	NO	-10.8270	3.5837
25	SEA	-11.5880	3.5531
26	STL	-12.2700	3.5257
27	HOU	-12.4840	3.5171
28	CIN	-13.7730	3.4653
29	ARI	-14.7710	3.4252
30	GB	-14.9300	3.4188
31	CHI	-20.6860	3.1875
32	KC	-21.9260	3.1376

Rush defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 4.0188)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	BAL	30.6830	2.7857
2	MIN	28.2440	2.8837
3	DET	11.0920	3.5730
4	DAL	8.7985	3.6652
5	PHI	8.5130	3.6767
6	TB	8.0449	3.6955
7	CAR	7.3892	3.7219
8	NO	7.1709	3.7306
9	SF	6.4217	3.7607
10	WAS	4.8765	3.8228
11	PIT	4.8732	3.8230
12	ARI	4.8250	3.8249
13	TEN	4.8004	3.8259
14	KC	4.6608	3.8315
15	IND	3.8612	3.8636
16	GB	2.5836	3.9150
17	NYG	2.0909	3.9348
18	STL	1.3536	3.9644
19	SEA	1.0605	3.9762
20	JAX	-2.2854	4.1107
21	NE	-4.0879	4.1831
22	ATL	-6.0306	4.2612
23	NYJ	-6.5797	4.2832
24	BUF	-7.9469	4.3382
25	SD	-8.4251	4.3574
26	HOU	-9.8056	4.4129
27	MIA	-10.1250	4.4257
28	CIN	-10.8340	4.4542
29	CHI	-12.2400	4.5107
30	CLE	-15.0000	4.6216
31	DEN	-17.8580	4.7365
32	OAK	-25.3180	5.0363

Pass offense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.1428)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	39.4710	8.5674
2	DAL	32.5940	8.1450
3	GB	18.4420	7.2757
4	HOU	18.2650	7.2648
5	IND	11.8800	6.8726
6	TB	11.6440	6.8581
7	CIN	11.4750	6.8477
8	CLE	11.0650	6.8225
9	DEN	9.0950	6.7015
10	PIT	7.8833	6.6271
11	SEA	6.8454	6.5633
12	SD	3.3650	6.3495
13	DET	2.8076	6.3153
14	ARI	2.6912	6.3081
15	JAX	2.6713	6.3069
16	NO	2.2502	6.2810
17	PHI	-1.5043	6.0504
18	WAS	-3.5543	5.9245
19	CHI	-5.1390	5.8271
20	BUF	-5.1838	5.8244
21	NYG	-6.2447	5.7592
22	KC	-10.0660	5.5245
23	MIA	-10.1330	5.5204
24	MIN	-10.3540	5.5068
25	NYJ	-10.8390	5.4770
26	TEN	-12.3070	5.3868
27	OAK	-12.5820	5.3699
28	ATL	-13.8290	5.2933
29	CAR	-16.2250	5.1461
30	STL	-16.6000	5.1231
31	BAL	-19.2890	4.9579
32	SF	-37.9670	3.8106

Pass defense, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.1428)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	PIT	26.8840	4.4914
2	IND	19.1940	4.9638
3	TB	14.6300	5.2441
4	NE	14.4520	5.2550
5	TEN	13.2080	5.3315
6	DAL	8.8767	5.5975
7	ARI	8.1510	5.6421
8	SEA	8.0877	5.6460
9	WAS	6.7156	5.7303
10	NYG	5.2053	5.8231
11	SF	5.0534	5.8324
12	GB	3.4367	5.9317
13	KC	3.3539	5.9368
14	DET	0.7469	6.0969
15	HOU	-0.6438	6.1824
16	ATL	-1.2587	6.2201
17	CHI	-1.6078	6.2416
18	CAR	-1.8181	6.2545
19	PHI	-2.1326	6.2738
20	SD	-3.1164	6.3342
21	CLE	-6.4865	6.5413
22	STL	-6.6690	6.5525
23	BAL	-6.8100	6.5611
24	JAX	-7.7262	6.6174
25	MIN	-8.1779	6.6452
26	BUF	-9.9492	6.7540
27	MIA	-11.2940	6.8366
28	DEN	-11.3670	6.8411
29	OAK	-12.4150	6.9054
30	CIN	-13.7210	6.9857
31	NYJ	-20.3460	7.3926
32	NO	-23.4510	7.5834

Sack rate made, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0531%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NYG	46.1600	8.8472
2	CHI	43.8590	8.7079
3	NE	38.8680	8.4058
4	PIT	32.9240	8.0460
5	SEA	32.3350	8.0103
6	GB	21.8730	7.3771
7	BAL	19.1140	7.2101
8	KC	18.6820	7.1839
9	PHI	18.0040	7.1429
10	DAL	10.1370	6.6667
11	DEN	9.4075	6.6225
12	DET	9.3557	6.6194
13	ARI	8.6877	6.5789
14	TEN	4.9647	6.3536
15	JAX	4.6155	6.3325
16	OAK	2.1269	6.1818
17	TB	-2.8204	5.8824
18	SF	-6.1334	5.6818
19	WAS	-7.5187	5.5980
20	IND	-10.1600	5.4381
21	SD	-10.2150	5.4348
22	NYJ	-11.2990	5.3691
23	NO	-11.4970	5.3572
24	MIN	-12.4490	5.2995
25	STL	-18.4170	4.9383
26	CIN	-19.2960	4.8851
27	MIA	-22.8610	4.6693
28	HOU	-27.1150	4.4118
29	ATL	-27.2680	4.4025
30	CLE	-31.8330	4.1262
31	CAR	-50.5370	2.9940
32	BUF	-60.6650	2.3810

Sack rate allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 6.0531%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NO	72.9170	1.6394
2	NE	53.5940	2.8090
3	IND	45.0840	3.3241
4	GB	42.0330	3.5088
5	CIN	41.2980	3.5533
6	ARI	39.8410	3.6415
7	HOU	34.8490	3.9436
8	DAL	31.5720	4.1420
9	SD	30.4960	4.2071
10	CLE	30.1950	4.2253
11	MIA	27.9630	4.3605
12	WAS	25.1340	4.5317
13	NYG	25.1190	4.5326
14	SEA	18.8910	4.9096
15	TB	12.7630	5.2805
16	DEN	11.2330	5.3731
17	BAL	5.9475	5.6931
18	TEN	1.2924	5.9748
19	CAR	-8.8745	6.5903
20	NYJ	-23.4290	7.4713
21	JAX	-25.3280	7.5862
22	CHI	-27.4190	7.7128
23	BUF	-30.2690	7.8853
24	KC	-39.1670	8.4239
25	PHI	-40.2270	8.4880
26	ATL	-40.9750	8.5333
27	STL	-45.2810	8.7940
28	MIN	-46.1000	8.8435
29	SF	-56.4620	9.4708
30	PIT	-63.5700	9.9010
31	OAK	-65.7230	10.0313
32	DET	-66.8330	10.0985

Third down % converted, Unadjusted (League Avg = 40.5253%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	29.0390	52.2935
2	PIT	24.2190	50.3402
3	DAL	23.3800	50.0002
4	IND	22.4660	49.6297
5	DEN	17.4100	47.5808
6	NO	16.8860	47.3684
7	HOU	9.6708	44.4445
8	GB	8.6477	44.0298
9	CLE	8.5741	44.0000
10	PHI	7.7400	43.6620
11	NYJ	7.0500	43.3824
12	CIN	6.6000	43.2000
13	NYG	5.4849	42.7481
14	TEN	4.7395	42.4460
15	TB	4.6259	42.4000
16	JAX	1.1890	41.0072
17	MIA	-4.0381	38.8889
18	OAK	-4.3178	38.7755
19	ATL	-4.4803	38.7097
20	WAS	-5.3780	38.3459
21	SD	-6.1907	38.0165
22	STL	-6.5840	37.8571
23	SEA	-7.4653	37.5000
24	ARI	-9.3931	36.7187
25	CHI	-9.8052	36.5517
26	BAL	-10.5700	36.2418
27	CAR	-12.2270	35.5703
28	KC	-13.1130	35.2112
29	BUF	-13.5290	35.0427
30	DET	-25.5470	30.1723
31	MIN	-26.9590	29.6001
32	SF	-33.3570	27.0073

Third down % allowed, Unadjusted (League Avg = 40.5253%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	23.0290	31.1928
2	GB	22.2810	31.4959
3	ATL	18.4100	33.0646
4	KC	14.7230	34.5588
5	BAL	14.3200	34.7221
6	CHI	14.3200	34.7221
7	STL	8.2300	37.1901
8	TEN	8.1407	37.2263
9	SEA	7.8997	37.3239
10	JAX	7.7160	37.3984
11	OAK	6.0842	38.0597
12	NYG	4.3569	38.7597
13	PIT	3.1944	39.2308
14	PHI	3.1241	39.2593
15	TB	2.6865	39.4366
16	DAL	-1.2818	41.0448
17	SF	-1.3184	41.0596
18	CLE	-4.7395	42.4460
19	CAR	-4.7395	42.4460
20	CIN	-5.1761	42.6230
21	SD	-5.2074	42.6356
22	WAS	-5.2356	42.6471
23	MIN	-7.8550	43.7086
24	HOU	-9.6708	44.4445
25	ARI	-10.6160	44.8275
26	DET	-11.0420	45.0001
27	IND	-11.1360	45.0382
28	NO	-11.9910	45.3847
29	NYJ	-13.5880	46.0319
30	DEN	-13.8890	46.1539
31	MIA	-17.4100	47.5808
32	BUF	-19.6970	48.5076

Int. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.9555%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	TB	55.3340	1.3201
2	NE	52.4790	1.4045
3	JAX	41.6640	1.7241
4	GB	40.6410	1.7544
5	PHI	37.1770	1.8568
6	ATL	36.8420	1.8667
7	SEA	30.0570	2.0672
8	BAL	24.6250	2.2277
9	WAS	18.2240	2.4169
10	CAR	12.7470	2.5788
11	MIN	7.9324	2.7211
12	PIT	-0.4995	2.9703
13	DEN	-0.9995	2.9851
14	IND	-3.0978	3.0471
15	SF	-3.6722	3.0641
16	CLE	-4.8403	3.0986
17	NYG	-5.4343	3.1161
18	MIA	-8.1928	3.1977
19	DET	-8.3381	3.2020
20	BUF	-9.1446	3.2258
21	KC	-10.3310	3.2609
22	NO	-10.9340	3.2787
23	NYJ	-16.6720	3.4483
24	DAL	-20.1240	3.5503
25	CIN	-20.2250	3.5533
26	ARI	-23.2080	3.6415
27	HOU	-23.9020	3.6620
28	TEN	-27.6790	3.7736
29	SD	-31.3970	3.8835
30	STL	-36.0190	4.0201
31	CHI	-43.9780	4.2553
32	OAK	-48.4910	4.3887

Int. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 2.9555%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	SD	56.3020	4.6196
2	OAK	47.6430	4.3636
3	IND	32.8860	3.9275
4	NE	27.4940	3.7681
5	BAL	27.2780	3.7617
6	DAL	25.3140	3.7037
7	DEN	23.2390	3.6424
8	TEN	21.5060	3.5912
9	DET	19.9820	3.5461
10	ATL	17.0390	3.4591
11	KC	16.6720	3.4483
12	TB	9.4656	3.2353
13	BUF	7.4122	3.1746
14	JAX	7.1288	3.1662
15	CIN	6.9492	3.1609
16	ARI	6.8468	3.1579
17	MIA	5.3224	3.1128
18	GB	1.6894	3.0055
19	NYG	-0.2190	2.9491
20	STL	-6.0143	2.7778
21	NYJ	-9.1682	2.6846
22	HOU	-10.4370	2.6471
23	CLE	-17.8770	2.4272
24	SEA	-21.3140	2.3256
25	PIT	-22.2190	2.2988
26	WAS	-22.5160	2.2901
27	CAR	-29.0890	2.0958
28	MIN	-29.8360	2.0737
29	PHI	-39.5810	1.7857
30	NO	-39.5810	1.7857
31	SF	-42.3270	1.7045
32	CHI	-52.4790	1.4045

Fum. Rate Given, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0983%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	45.9070	1.6760
2	NE	44.4490	1.7212
3	NYJ	40.5980	1.8405
4	SEA	38.2880	1.9121
5	JAX	31.5940	2.1195
6	BUF	29.9880	2.1692
7	MIA	29.5300	2.1834
8	PIT	29.1950	2.1938
9	ATL	28.7090	2.2088
10	DAL	28.5660	2.2133
11	PHI	24.2070	2.3483
12	STL	23.0010	2.3857
13	TB	19.9790	2.4793
14	CIN	17.5680	2.5540
15	NYG	17.4060	2.5590
16	SD	15.8040	2.6087
17	CLE	2.6176	3.0172
18	NO	1.2610	3.0593
19	KC	0.5894	3.0801
20	GB	-1.2559	3.1373
21	MIN	-16.4930	3.6094
22	CAR	-17.8410	3.6511
23	ARI	-17.9960	3.6559
24	HOU	-27.8230	3.9604
25	DEN	-32.5470	4.1068
26	TEN	-35.2150	4.1894
27	BAL	-38.4130	4.2885
28	WAS	-44.4230	4.4747
29	CHI	-45.5030	4.5082
30	OAK	-65.5140	5.1282
31	SF	-69.4450	5.2500
32	DET	-80.4210	5.5901

Fum. Rate Taken, Unadjusted (League Avg = 3.0983%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	DET	81.5130	5.6239
2	PIT	41.0090	4.3689
3	NYG	31.8780	4.0860
4	SEA	30.6690	4.0486
5	IND	26.1790	3.9095
6	TEN	22.7470	3.8031
7	WAS	20.7150	3.7402
8	CAR	19.3060	3.6965
9	MIN	17.7930	3.6496
10	DAL	13.8340	3.5270
11	HOU	12.6650	3.4907
12	STL	7.3607	3.3264
13	DEN	6.7471	3.3074
14	NE	5.0824	3.2558
15	CHI	4.3118	3.2319
16	GB	3.4465	3.2051
17	SD	0.0785	3.1008
18	TB	-3.5598	2.9880
19	CIN	-6.8982	2.8846
20	ATL	-7.0259	2.8807
21	NO	-7.7848	2.8571
22	MIA	-10.1680	2.7833
23	ARI	-10.8770	2.7613
24	KC	-14.3720	2.6531
25	OAK	-18.6340	2.5210
26	JAX	-20.1440	2.4742
27	PHI	-32.1950	2.1008
28	BUF	-32.5040	2.0913
29	BAL	-32.6190	2.0877
30	CLE	-35.6830	1.9928
31	SF	-42.3660	1.7857
32	NYJ	-58.5450	1.2844

Rush offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0188)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	MIN	41.9910	5.7064
2	PHI	17.1780	4.7092
3	DEN	14.2180	4.5902
4	DAL	10.8700	4.4557
5	NYG	10.8400	4.4545
6	SF	6.7789	4.2912
7	CAR	6.5137	4.2806
8	MIA	6.3546	4.2742
9	TB	6.0057	4.2602
10	CLE	5.5503	4.2419
11	PIT	4.5536	4.2018
12	JAX	2.0485	4.1011
13	WAS	1.8410	4.0928
14	IND	-0.0468	4.0169
15	ATL	-0.2573	4.0085
16	OAK	-1.2156	3.9700
17	NE	-1.4449	3.9607
18	BAL	-3.8883	3.8625
19	TEN	-4.3221	3.8451
20	NYJ	-4.9820	3.8186
21	STL	-5.2322	3.8085
22	SD	-6.6988	3.7496
23	DET	-6.7470	3.7477
24	BUF	-7.5239	3.7164
25	ARI	-8.5376	3.6757
26	NO	-8.8037	3.6650
27	GB	-9.1955	3.6493
28	CIN	-10.1920	3.6092
29	SEA	-11.0400	3.5751
30	HOU	-15.4790	3.3967
31	CHI	-15.8590	3.3815
32	KC	-26.6930	2.9461

Rush defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 4.0188)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	BAL	26.7860	2.9423
2	MIN	22.9370	3.0970
3	DET	14.3100	3.4437
4	DAL	13.7050	3.4680
5	GB	10.5090	3.5965
6	PHI	10.1790	3.6097
7	TEN	7.3680	3.7227
8	WAS	6.9809	3.7383
9	KC	4.4286	3.8408
10	IND	4.2705	3.8472
11	NYG	4.0640	3.8555
12	NO	3.6104	3.8737
13	TB	3.5211	3.8773
14	ARI	3.0074	3.8979
15	STL	0.8610	3.9842
16	SF	0.7754	3.9876
17	CAR	0.6072	3.9944
18	PIT	0.2642	4.0082
19	ATL	-0.9035	4.0551
20	SD	-2.6448	4.1251
21	BUF	-3.1744	4.1464
22	NE	-4.1075	4.1839
23	JAX	-4.4739	4.1986
24	NYJ	-5.2418	4.2295
25	SEA	-5.6124	4.2444
26	CHI	-6.3067	4.2723
27	MIA	-6.9229	4.2970
28	HOU	-9.8131	4.4132
29	CLE	-14.4940	4.6013
30	CIN	-15.7010	4.6498
31	DEN	-20.0290	4.8237
32	OAK	-23.0680	4.9459

Pass offense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.1428)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	35.6090	8.3302
2	DAL	31.9000	8.1024
3	HOU	16.4710	7.1546
4	GB	15.5950	7.1008
5	CIN	14.2920	7.0207
6	TB	13.6770	6.9830
7	CLE	13.4540	6.9693
8	DEN	13.2460	6.9565
9	IND	12.8740	6.9336
10	ARI	7.1908	6.5845
11	SEA	6.8341	6.5626
12	NO	6.1449	6.5203
13	JAX	2.8294	6.3166
14	PIT	2.6851	6.3077
15	SD	2.2085	6.2785
16	DET	1.6616	6.2449
17	WAS	-1.3516	6.0598
18	PHI	-2.1979	6.0078
19	NYG	-4.3992	5.8726
20	CHI	-5.5992	5.7989
21	BUF	-7.9213	5.6562
22	NYJ	-10.3890	5.5046
23	MIA	-10.8010	5.4793
24	MIN	-11.0950	5.4613
25	TEN	-13.1170	5.3371
26	KC	-13.1590	5.3345
27	CAR	-13.2690	5.3277
28	OAK	-13.8900	5.2896
29	ATL	-14.4450	5.2555
30	STL	-16.4280	5.1337
31	BAL	-23.0380	4.7276
32	SF	-35.9790	3.9327

Pass defense, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.1428)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	PIT	23.4980	4.6994
2	IND	22.1150	4.7843
3	NE	17.2650	5.0823
4	TEN	16.6290	5.1213
5	WAS	12.0900	5.4001
6	TB	11.7630	5.4202
7	KC	8.3954	5.6271
8	DAL	7.8499	5.6606
9	SEA	6.6923	5.7317
10	NYG	5.9084	5.7799
11	CHI	3.3683	5.9359
12	SD	3.3079	5.9396
13	ARI	2.9904	5.9591
14	BUF	-0.0168	6.1438
15	SF	-0.1369	6.1512
16	MIA	-0.4631	6.1713
17	PHI	-0.5339	6.1756
18	DET	-1.5424	6.2376
19	GB	-1.8938	6.2591
20	CAR	-2.2081	6.2784
21	MIN	-5.6129	6.4876
22	JAX	-5.8915	6.5047
23	HOU	-7.1964	6.5849
24	ATL	-7.5464	6.6064
25	BAL	-8.3924	6.6583
26	DEN	-9.6046	6.7328
27	CLE	-9.8830	6.7499
28	OAK	-12.0190	6.8811
29	STL	-12.9060	6.9356
30	CIN	-15.4720	7.0932
31	NYJ	-20.7950	7.4202
32	NO	-29.7690	7.9715

Sack rate made, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0531%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	70.1450	10.2990
2	PIT	47.3110	8.9168
3	KC	32.8830	8.0435
4	CHI	25.2830	7.5835
5	NYG	24.0460	7.5086
6	IND	22.9170	7.4403
7	DAL	20.3530	7.2851
8	JAX	17.7920	7.1300
9	BAL	17.1570	7.0916
10	GB	14.8270	6.9506
11	TEN	13.1320	6.8480
12	TB	9.6431	6.6368
13	PHI	9.4250	6.6236
14	SEA	8.7158	6.5806
15	DET	4.1385	6.3036
16	SD	-0.5180	6.0217
17	WAS	-2.6035	5.8955
18	MIA	-3.0986	5.8655
19	ARI	-4.6242	5.7732
20	STL	-4.8500	5.7595
21	OAK	-6.6925	5.6480
22	CIN	-16.7800	5.0374
23	HOU	-16.9870	5.0248
24	DEN	-17.9450	4.9669
25	NO	-19.4950	4.8730
26	SF	-20.7370	4.7978
27	MIN	-25.6000	4.5035
28	NYJ	-27.1030	4.4125
29	ATL	-32.0530	4.1129
30	CLE	-36.6000	3.8376
31	CAR	-46.0590	3.2651
32	BUF	-58.1090	2.5357

Sack rate allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 6.0531%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NO	70.2960	1.7980
2	IND	48.4600	3.1198
3	CIN	47.6950	3.1661
4	NE	43.8600	3.3982
5	GB	41.7030	3.5288
6	CLE	39.1290	3.6846
7	SD	38.6780	3.7119
8	DAL	38.3750	3.7302
9	WAS	33.9510	3.9980
10	HOU	29.9490	4.2402
11	ARI	29.1690	4.2875
12	NYG	26.6900	4.4375
13	MIA	19.5250	4.8712
14	TB	18.7200	4.9199
15	SEA	18.1450	4.9547
16	DEN	11.1490	5.3782
17	BAL	-10.1890	6.6698
18	CHI	-15.3580	6.9827
19	BUF	-15.6780	7.0021
20	TEN	-16.7410	7.0664
21	CAR	-20.0350	7.2658
22	PHI	-21.1930	7.3359
23	MIN	-27.2500	7.7025
24	JAX	-33.8690	8.1032
25	KC	-40.3920	8.4980
26	NYJ	-40.6600	8.5143
27	SF	-43.9420	8.7129
28	STL	-45.4190	8.8023
29	DET	-47.4870	8.9275
30	ATL	-56.6890	9.4845
31	OAK	-68.2210	10.1825
32	PIT	-81.3470	10.9771

Third down % converted, Adjusted (League Avg = 40.5253%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	24.1370	50.3069
2	DAL	23.7880	50.1655
3	DEN	19.3040	48.3483
4	NO	19.2560	48.3289
5	PIT	18.8960	48.1830
6	NE	18.0370	47.8349
7	CLE	13.8880	46.1535
8	HOU	12.3470	45.5290
9	GB	8.8020	44.0924
10	PHI	7.9477	43.7462
11	CIN	6.9291	43.3334
12	NYG	6.8548	43.3033
13	NYJ	6.8524	43.3023
14	TEN	4.2812	42.2603
15	JAX	2.5866	41.5736
16	TB	2.5614	41.5633
17	SD	1.1920	41.0084
18	MIA	-6.2775	37.9814
19	WAS	-6.4214	37.9230
20	ATL	-6.9079	37.7259
21	SEA	-7.6579	37.4219
22	STL	-8.1517	37.2218
23	ARI	-8.4320	37.1082
24	OAK	-8.6050	37.0381
25	CHI	-9.0672	36.8508
26	CAR	-10.6770	36.1984
27	BUF	-11.6530	35.8029
28	KC	-13.3880	35.0998
29	BAL	-15.7510	34.1422
30	MIN	-21.6680	31.7443
31	DET	-25.1380	30.3381
32	SF	-31.6240	27.7096

Third down % allowed, Adjusted (League Avg = 40.5253%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	23.8850	30.8459
2	GB	17.3420	33.4974
3	KC	16.0320	34.0283
4	BAL	15.2840	34.3314
5	ATL	15.1250	34.3959
6	TEN	12.8140	35.3324
7	JAX	11.8580	35.7198
8	SEA	9.6679	36.6074
9	CHI	7.3491	37.5471
10	NYG	5.2966	38.3789
11	TB	4.3724	38.7534
12	STL	3.5556	39.0844
13	OAK	2.5545	39.4901
14	WAS	1.8085	39.7924
15	DAL	0.8087	40.1976
16	PHI	-0.0757	40.5560
17	CAR	-0.9257	40.9005
18	PIT	-1.0047	40.9325
19	SF	-2.3863	41.4924
20	SD	-2.9285	41.7121
21	CLE	-3.0497	41.7612
22	CIN	-4.7592	42.4540
23	BUF	-6.5517	43.1804
24	IND	-7.6914	43.6423
25	HOU	-8.4791	43.9615
26	MIN	-8.9911	44.1690
27	MIA	-11.5910	45.2226
28	NYJ	-11.9350	45.3620
29	DEN	-15.2380	46.7006
30	DET	-17.1780	47.4868
31	ARI	-17.7490	47.7182
32	NO	-22.4200	49.6111

Int. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.9555%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	NE	61.7050	1.1318
2	TB	60.3260	1.1726
3	PHI	41.4060	1.7318
4	ATL	27.3010	2.1486
5	JAX	24.5090	2.2312
6	IND	23.6120	2.2577
7	GB	23.1970	2.2699
8	MIN	21.3700	2.3239
9	BAL	18.4050	2.4116
10	WAS	16.6230	2.4642
11	CAR	13.6690	2.5515
12	DEN	10.3810	2.6487
13	SEA	7.6729	2.7288
14	PIT	5.4745	2.7937
15	HOU	5.1620	2.8030
16	CLE	4.1544	2.8327
17	BUF	2.3741	2.8854
18	MIA	1.8024	2.9023
19	SF	-6.5818	3.1501
20	KC	-6.9181	3.1600
21	NO	-8.9251	3.2193
22	NYG	-16.5270	3.4440
23	NYJ	-18.4000	3.4994
24	CIN	-20.5310	3.5623
25	DET	-22.8800	3.6318
26	SD	-29.7020	3.8334
27	CHI	-29.7250	3.8341
28	STL	-30.1120	3.8455
29	TEN	-31.6740	3.8917
30	DAL	-35.7170	4.0112
31	OAK	-47.8560	4.3699
32	ARI	-54.8540	4.5768

Int. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 2.9555%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	73.2760	5.1212
2	SD	47.0770	4.3469
3	MIA	45.4590	4.2991
4	OAK	37.1010	4.0521
5	CIN	36.0470	4.0209
6	JAX	27.3200	3.7630
7	TEN	22.7140	3.6269
8	DAL	22.6740	3.6257
9	NE	16.0110	3.4287
10	KC	10.6890	3.2715
11	ATL	9.3141	3.2308
12	BAL	7.9070	3.1892
13	TB	7.4373	3.1753
14	GB	6.2738	3.1410
15	DEN	3.2088	3.0504
16	DET	-1.1742	2.9208
17	NYG	-3.6734	2.8470
18	NYJ	-5.2331	2.8009
19	ARI	-5.6931	2.7873
20	STL	-6.5968	2.7606
21	BUF	-6.8405	2.7534
22	CLE	-12.5210	2.5855
23	NO	-14.3890	2.5303
24	WAS	-17.6250	2.4346
25	PIT	-17.6880	2.4328
26	HOU	-23.3110	2.2666
27	MIN	-31.7120	2.0183
28	SF	-32.5750	1.9928
29	SEA	-33.8710	1.9545
30	PHI	-34.8620	1.9252
31	CAR	-41.2020	1.7378
32	CHI	-53.8290	1.3646

Fum. Rate Given, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0983%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	IND	47.1910	1.6362
2	PHI	40.1100	1.8556
3	JAX	38.6630	1.9004
4	MIA	37.0530	1.9503
5	NE	34.2450	2.0373
6	TB	33.9640	2.0460
7	ATL	31.6760	2.1169
8	DAL	30.3320	2.1586
9	NYJ	28.4020	2.2184
10	BUF	22.3430	2.4061
11	SD	21.0320	2.4467
12	SEA	19.0280	2.5088
13	NYG	17.4130	2.5588
14	KC	6.6877	2.8911
15	STL	6.1183	2.9088
16	CLE	4.1585	2.9695
17	GB	3.9915	2.9747
18	CIN	2.7704	3.0125
19	NO	2.4567	3.0222
20	PIT	-0.6468	3.1184
21	ARI	-2.0336	3.1614
22	CAR	-11.1400	3.4435
23	MIN	-17.2080	3.6315
24	DEN	-21.6230	3.7683
25	HOU	-27.6200	3.9541
26	CHI	-28.9420	3.9951
27	TEN	-34.5990	4.1703
28	WAS	-45.4740	4.5073
29	SF	-56.5820	4.8514
30	OAK	-56.7450	4.8565
31	BAL	-60.6110	4.9763
32	DET	-77.3300	5.4943

Fum. Rate Taken, Adjusted (League Avg = 3.0983%)
Rank	Team	VOLA (%)	Actual Stat
1	DET	51.1890	4.6844
2	DAL	37.2490	4.2524
3	NE	36.9660	4.2437
4	NYG	33.7100	4.1428
5	PIT	32.8390	4.1158
6	CAR	32.6200	4.1090
7	WAS	28.7310	3.9885
8	SEA	24.9760	3.8722
9	HOU	22.4330	3.7934
10	IND	21.0210	3.7496
11	TEN	17.9890	3.6557
12	MIN	11.4420	3.4529
13	TB	9.1604	3.3822
14	NO	-1.5930	3.0490
15	GB	-3.1430	3.0010
16	MIA	-3.7421	2.9824
17	DEN	-4.5719	2.9567
18	SD	-5.3865	2.9315
19	STL	-6.2530	2.9046
20	BUF	-8.8016	2.8256
21	ARI	-10.7250	2.7660
22	CHI	-11.5640	2.7401
23	CIN	-15.0930	2.6307
24	ATL	-15.4330	2.6202
25	KC	-17.9440	2.5424
26	SF	-23.1800	2.3801
27	BAL	-23.6840	2.3645
28	JAX	-27.3840	2.2499
29	OAK	-34.5190	2.0288
30	CLE	-35.3880	2.0019
31	NYJ	-48.6040	1.5924
32	PHI	-48.9670	1.5812

Read More......

Win Probabilities and Expected Wins 2007 - Week 11

Night games added and tables updated. With the Thanksgiving holiday coming up, I'm going to scale back the articles I normally post. I'll just update this article and post predictions for week 12. The rest of the updates will be retroactively added over the weekend. Happy Turkey Day!

The following table lists the probabilities that the home team would win each game given the rushing averages, passing averages (includes sack yards lost and sacks as pass attempts), sack rates, third down conversion rates, penalty yards, and interception and fumble rates (by number of completions and rushing plays) for both teams. A logistic regression model trained on 1996-2006 data computes the probabilities. The final score margin is Home team points - Away team points. The sum of these probabilities of victory form the expected win totals in the second table after the jump. The tables will be updated as more box scores come in.

Home Team	Away Team	P(Home Team Won) (%)	Final Score Margin
CIN	ARI	26.8674	-8
BAL	CLE	46.8101	-3
DAL	WAS	80.8675	5
NYJ	PIT	90.2544	3
SEA	CHI	85.9746	7
SF	STL	12.5273	-4
GB	CAR	83.4122	14
HOU	NO	92.3433	13
IND	KC	39.3445	3
JAX	SD	78.0692	7
MIN	OAK	66.4685	7
DET	NYG	11.3469	-6
PHI	MIA	50.9583	10
ATL	TB	1.2857	-24
BUF	NE	0.3451	-46
DEN	TEN	99.1756	14

Teams that should've won but didn't
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Colts) Win Prob = 60.6555% The Chiefs had a better day passing (hey, 3 of the Colts 4 best passing targets are injured). Manning threw the only pick. And Indy recovered their only fumble.

Team	Actual Wins	Expected Wins	Projected Win Total
AFC East
BUF	5.0	3.9037	6.2460
MIA	0.0	3.9188	6.2701
NE	10.0	8.8630	14.1808
NYJ	2.0	3.2404	5.1846
AFC North
BAL	4.0	4.0799	6.5279
CIN	3.0	3.9365	6.2985
CLE	6.0	4.4641	7.1425
PIT	7.0	7.4777	11.9643
AFC South
HOU	5.0	4.7753	7.6404
IND	8.0	8.4411	13.5058
JAX	7.0	6.3066	10.0905
TEN	6.0	4.8085	7.6935
AFC West
DEN	5.0	4.5402	7.2644
KC	4.0	5.0674	8.1079
OAK	2.0	2.6541	4.2465
SD	5.0	4.4655	7.1448
NFC East
DAL	9.0	8.2148	13.1437
NYG	7.0	5.4931	8.7890
PHI	5.0	5.8725	9.3960
WAS	5.0	4.0063	6.4101
NFC North
CHI	4.0	2.5720	4.1152
DET	6.0	5.5119	8.8191
GB	9.0	7.0824	11.3319
MIN	4.0	4.2702	6.8324
NFC South
ATL	3.0	5.0092	8.0147
CAR	4.0	3.7475	5.9959
NO	4.0	3.8724	6.1958
TB	6.0	6.9080	11.0528
NFC West
ARI	5.0	4.3089	6.8942
STL	2.0	3.9319	6.2910
SF	2.0	1.2973	2.0756
SEA	6.0	6.9588	11.1341

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