Sunday, February 3, 2008

Super Bowl XLII Win Probability




Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
NENYG44.5644-3


Despite the home team bias of the system given the neutral site, the Giants came out with the higher win probability. Their 2 fumbles (both recovered) and the one interception weren't enough to cancel out the Brady's fumble and the Patriots' poor performance in general.

As I pointed out in my preview, the two X factors that could play in the Giants' favor were the running game and pass protection. Both did play in their favor. The Giants gained 3.5 yards per carry compared to the Patriots' 2.8 ypc. And the Giants generated a ton of pressure on Brady the entire night, leading to 5 sacks. Eli also continued his hot streak, averaging 6.7 yards per pass, compared to 4.3 for Brady.

As a Dolfan, I'm ecstatic. As a blogger on predicting football games, I take pride in my ideas coming to fruition.

1 comment:

Brian Burke said...

Great season, Derek. I think your numbers make a lot of sense for the game. FO's DVOA says the Pats played the better game, but if so there is some serious bias in their system.