Monday, January 14, 2008

Win Probabilities 2007 Divisional Round

These probabilities of victory are based on the box score stats, training on 1996-2006. Inputs include rushing and passing efficiency by yards per play, third down efficiency, sack rates, turnover rates and penalty yards. The difference between probability and result can stem from recovered fumbles, where the ball was turned over, special teams, among other things.

As you can see, all of the victories were pretty decisive this week, though Sunday's games were closer than the box score stats would indicate.







Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin
GBSEA99.353422
NEJAX96.785511
DALNYG8.6389-4
INDSD1.2989-4


SD@IND - Peyton Manning played really well. 8.4 yards per pass is way above average, and San Diego's pass defense was top-10 this year to begin with. Keep in mind, however, that just because something is unlikely doesn't mean it won't happen. I would put the probability of Rivers average 13.6 yards per pass against a top-5 defense as next to zero. Play that game over 1000 times and it might happen that one time. But it did happen. This game was not Manning's fault. If the interception at the end of the first didn't happen, that would have increased their probability of winning to 2.2%. It made that little difference. You're just not going to win with your pass defense that porous.

NYG@DAL - Ignoring the recovered fumble boosts Dallas' win probability to 13.5%, but penalties and turnovers made a big difference. Even without those, however, Romo and the passing game just didn't perform up to snuff.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Malaysia & Singapore & brunei greatest on-line blogshop for wholesale & quantity korean accessories,
accessories, earstuds, choker, rings, bangle,
hair & trinket accessories. Deal 35 % wholesale markdown. Ship Worldwide
my website :: ohiomeansjobs.com

Anonymous said...

Hi there just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The words in your content seem to be running off the screen in Internet explorer.
I'm not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with internet browser compatibility but I figured I'd
post to let you know. The design and style look great though!
Hope you get the issue solved soon. Thanks
Have a look at my weblog click the next internet site

Anonymous said...

This text is worth everyone's attention. When can I find out more?
Feel free to visit my blog ... web hosting delhi

Anonymous said...

This article will assist the internet viewers for creating new webpage or even a weblog
from start to end.
Here is my website ... london escort

Anonymous said...

When someone writes an post he/she keeps the thought of a user in his/her mind that
how a user can know it. So that's why this paragraph is amazing. Thanks!

Here is my weblog: Amateur Webcam Stripdance

Anonymous said...

Everything is very open with a really clear description
of the challenges. It was truly informative. Your
website is very helpful. Thank you for sharing!


Feel free to visit my blog: http://www.sex-xxx-erotica.com/nice-babe-fucked-hard/

Anonymous said...

There is definately a lot to find out about this topic.
I like all the points you made.

My site :: http://www.wildpartygirls.org