Monday, January 14, 2008

Win Probabilities 2007 Divisional Round

These probabilities of victory are based on the box score stats, training on 1996-2006. Inputs include rushing and passing efficiency by yards per play, third down efficiency, sack rates, turnover rates and penalty yards. The difference between probability and result can stem from recovered fumbles, where the ball was turned over, special teams, among other things.

As you can see, all of the victories were pretty decisive this week, though Sunday's games were closer than the box score stats would indicate.

Home TeamAway TeamP(Home Team Won) (%)Final Score Margin

SD@IND - Peyton Manning played really well. 8.4 yards per pass is way above average, and San Diego's pass defense was top-10 this year to begin with. Keep in mind, however, that just because something is unlikely doesn't mean it won't happen. I would put the probability of Rivers average 13.6 yards per pass against a top-5 defense as next to zero. Play that game over 1000 times and it might happen that one time. But it did happen. This game was not Manning's fault. If the interception at the end of the first didn't happen, that would have increased their probability of winning to 2.2%. It made that little difference. You're just not going to win with your pass defense that porous.

NYG@DAL - Ignoring the recovered fumble boosts Dallas' win probability to 13.5%, but penalties and turnovers made a big difference. Even without those, however, Romo and the passing game just didn't perform up to snuff.


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