Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Power Rankings 2007 Week 17

The power rankings for this site were developed in this article. The idea behind them is simple: if each team played one home game and one away game against every other team in the league, who would be the most successful?

The power rankings use logistic regression to predict the probability of winning. The score you see along with the rankings is the expected win total over a 16-game season based on the expected winning percentages over the 62 games (i.e. the sum of those probabilities).




































Power Rankings, Opponent-adjusted
RankTeamExpected Wins
1NE10.5759
2IND10.3170
3DAL10.1534
4PIT9.8614
5TB9.5910
6JAX9.5862
7GB9.2658
8WAS9.1119
9MIN9.1075
10PHI9.0675
11SD8.7100
12NYG8.6673
13TEN8.4478
14SEA8.3719
15DEN8.2001
16HOU7.9178
17CLE7.7195
18CIN7.5846
19CAR7.4754
20ARI7.3438
21BUF7.2895
22NO7.2215
23ATL7.1775
24DET7.1663
25BAL6.7068
26NYJ6.6356
27CHI6.5820
28STL6.4483
29KC6.2941
30MIA6.1462
31SF5.6674
32OAK5.5888





































Power Rankings, Unadjusted
RankTeamExpected Wins
1NE10.5837
2PIT10.2658
3IND10.1597
4DAL10.0700
5TB9.8437
6MIN9.6704
7GB9.5724
8JAX9.5190
9SEA8.8647
10SD8.8134
11PHI8.7488
12WAS8.7349
13NYG8.5790
14TEN8.4120
15DEN8.2860
16CLE8.2273
17CIN7.9928
18ARI7.8841
19HOU7.6742
20NO7.3013
21CAR7.1811
22DET7.0157
23ATL6.9466
24BUF6.8609
25NYJ6.6046
26BAL6.5961
27STL6.4422
28KC6.1708
29CHI6.1171
30MIA5.7952
31OAK5.5368
32SF5.5296


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