Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Predicitons 2007 Wild Card Round and End of Year Accuracy Report








Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
JAX @ PIT3.649362.5294
TEN @ SD4.585064.7420
NYG @ TB4.375165.1118
WAS @ SEA0.293451.9924










Predictions based on unadjusted stats
GamePredicted Final Score MarginP(Home Team Wins)
JAX @ PIT4.552865.8528
TEN @ SD5.198966.2033
NYG @ TB4.850767.0733
WAS @ SEA1.859757.9650



Final Accuracy Numbers for 2007 Season (weeks 3-17)
OPPONENT ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 66.9643%
Mean absolute error: 11.3762 points
Correlation with result: 0.4032
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.8750%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 66.0714%
Correlation with result: 0.3939
% of games predicted as home team wins: 73.6607%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 76.1905
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 50.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 74.5763
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 65.8537
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 90.9091

UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 65.1786%
Mean absolute error: 11.4125 points
Correlation with result: 0.3864
% of games predicted as home team wins: 70.0893%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 62.9464%
Correlation with result: 0.3775
% of games predicted as home team wins: 70.5357%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 70.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 52.6316
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 46.5116
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 66.1017
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 76.1905
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 69.2308
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000

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