Predicitons 2007 Wild Card Round and End of Year Accuracy Report

Predictions based on opponent-adjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
JAX @ PIT	3.6493	62.5294
TEN @ SD	4.5850	64.7420
NYG @ TB	4.3751	65.1118
WAS @ SEA	0.2934	51.9924

Predictions based on unadjusted stats
Game	Predicted Final Score Margin	P(Home Team Wins)
JAX @ PIT	4.5528	65.8528
TEN @ SD	5.1989	66.2033
NYG @ TB	4.8507	67.0733
WAS @ SEA	1.8597	57.9650

Final Accuracy Numbers for 2007 Season (weeks 3-17)
OPPONENT ADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 66.9643%
Mean absolute error: 11.3762 points
Correlation with result: 0.4032
% of games predicted as home team wins: 71.8750%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 66.0714%
Correlation with result: 0.3939
% of games predicted as home team wins: 73.6607%
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 76.1905
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 50.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 74.5763
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 65.8537
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 90.9091

UNADJUSTED
Linear regression
Win prediction accuracy: 65.1786%
Mean absolute error: 11.4125 points
Correlation with result: 0.3864
% of games predicted as home team wins: 70.0893%
Logistic regression
Win prediction accuracy: 62.9464%
Correlation with result: 0.3775
% of games predicted as home team wins: 70.5357%
Win prediction accuracy when 10%≤P(home team wins)<20%: 100.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 20%≤P(home team wins)<30%: 60.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 30%≤P(home team wins)<40%: 70.0000
Win prediction accuracy when 40%≤P(home team wins)<50%: 52.6316
Win prediction accuracy when 50%≤P(home team wins)<60%: 46.5116
Win prediction accuracy when 60%≤P(home team wins)<70%: 66.1017
Win prediction accuracy when 70%≤P(home team wins)<80%: 76.1905
Win prediction accuracy when 80%≤P(home team wins)<90%: 69.2308
Win prediction accuracy when 90%≤P(home team wins)<100%: 100.0000